dear boomers

gen Z would like a word about your "entitlement"

a great deal of ink has been spilled and pixels pixelated about the millennials and gen Z and their various entitled natures and misapprehensions about the relative difficulty of life and of their economic position. and much of it has a point. gen Z are, age for age and in real, inflation adjusted terms, the richest, best paid generation in american history. yet they feel themselves to be poor. it’s easy to bag on them for this, and even certain internet felines of questionable goodness have done dives into this data and found the facts counter to many gen Y and Z narratives.

these generations are rich

but they feel poor because their expectations are unrealistic.

but, and this is a huge but, this does not mean that they do not also have some valid points as well. they do.

in 2021, housing was at generational levels of affordability, but in the last 4-5 years, housing has become stratospherically expensive. that’s a real issue and if you, boomerisimos, were in their shoes instead of owning homes and benefitting from this, you too might find the fit not to your liking.

but there is a bigger, much more fundamental issue at play as well: the system really is rigged against these kids (and gen X but we’re used to it and are too small demographically to be a political power). and the boomers are going to be the generation that breaks the institutions.

and asking the kids of america to pass a marshmallow test where waiting is clearly not going to result in more candy is asking them to play the patsy and act high trust while they are defected against and plundered.

this is real and it’s coming right soon.

why pay into this if you’ll never get anything out and it’s obvious the system will not be standing when you come of age?

boomers love to call gen Z entitled, but mention “entitlements” and watch the boomers suddenly get pretty darn entitled themselves,

the boomers will retort “but this is a system, we paid in and deserve to take out!”

that’s just statistically inaccurate.

you paid far, far less than you will take out and during a long period in which you held unchallenged political control of the US.

and it was not designed to be like this. when it was put into place, the age of entitlement was set at average life expectancy. avg recipient got 0 years of payout. now the average recipient gets ~20 years. everyone has known that cannot work for 30 years. but you did nothing.

you allowed this ponzi to grow and fester and become ever more pyramid shaped.

you went wild and made it a third rail. you let no one change the ponzi. and now the bill is coming due. and the acid test is coming.

it will be simple, five letters: “paygo.”

that’s the test. social security is supposed to be run as a paygo system. it cannot pay out more than it takes in. there’s some wiggle room around the fictitious “social security trust fund” which exists only as an accounting entity (the money was long ago plundered for other programs, also choices made by boomer controlled governments) but that rope does not go very far and from where we sit right now, the triggers hit in 6 years. that’s pretty damn soon.

so what’s the test?

simple: will the government follow the law?

will it implement paygo and cut benefits to balance the SS accounting?

my money is on something between “not an icicle’s chance in hades” and “you must be new here.”

they will vote for gravy train full steam ahead.

so one of two things happen:

taxes go up or deficits explode.

if taxes go up, it’s either more FICA (better option) or “start plundering income tax” which will be paid only by the rich and cause severe wealth flight/sheltering and basically not work because hauser’s law is not “hauser’s suggestion” and laffer curves laugh last.

if deficits explode, it’s just death by money printer inflation spiral and debt service. the long bond will hit 10%.

all of these are handing some sort of bomb with varying fuse length and blast radius to gen’s Y and Z. (and, of course, gen X, but again, we never expected anything else from the boomers and unlike these other two, both grew up cynical and have already done most of our paying so there’s not really as much skin in the game for us)

but for gen Y and esp gen Z: this is going to be a profound “watch what i do, not what i say” moment vis a vis the boomers.

this is the moment of cooperate or defect.

will you allow the system you built to act as you built it, or are you going to cheat and overturn the gameboard and say no to paygo and play instead at maximum extraction?

will you make the failure of the system you built and benefit from the problem of the next generation?

and so here’s my advice to the boomers:

accept paygo cuts or find some form of age increase or means testing or whatever it takes to keep outlays in line with receipts.

do this, and the system will hold. you’ll have demonstrated your bona fides and accountability for that which you made and defended.

and gen X will keep that faith behind you. and gen X, this is important. if we try to play the extractor, everyone turns on us too. don’t be the ones to break the society. fortunately, “hypocrite” is the one epithet that really stings gen X (well, that and “poser”) so i think gen X (who did not ever really count on SS) can and will stay onside with fiscal sense.

but if the boomers break faith, we all buck, even gen X. we’ll join the others and turn on you because now you pose real, existential danger to the republic.

defect and play at low trust extractor who changes the rules when they don’t like the scoreboard, and it’s open season on you and your institutions and as you fade in size and your millennial echo and the big gen Z behind them come to dominate the demos, they will gut you like a trout.

the decision gets stark:

maybe at present you still have the votes to defect and extract, but for how much longer? and what will you uncork if you do?

this is going to be a profound moment where america makes a choice about high trust and golden rules or low trust and the tactical morality of “rules don’t apply to me if i want stuff.”

if this goes down the plunder path, everyone defects and intergenerational war of all against all will kick off in earnest.

paygo will be the arch duke ferdinand of the Z v B american fiscal war.

gen Z may not get the reference, but boomers, you do.

and this one is on you.

you built much of this system, you made its rules and refused to adjust them to increased life expectancy, and you controlled the government during its expansion and the plundering of its (obviously named in irony) trust fund.

it will be your votes that decide this issue.

either accpet the bed you made or earn mass defection from any social contract that includes you.

this is a pivot point for the character of the american republic.

choose well.