or he just got really lucky and played a very stupid, blatant move to walk up to the most obvious place in the the whole set that should have been guarded but wasn't.
The question that comes to mind then is how many of these incidents happen that get thwarted by competent security? If this event happens 1000 times, is there a guy with a rifle brazenly trying to get on the roof who gets sniffed out 500 times? 100 times? 10? If something this sloppy (on the assassin’s end) happens often and we only know about this specific instance because it was the one time security was this incompetent, ok, fine. But if attempts this brazen are rare because of the inherent stupidity behind even trying it (…unless you know you’ll be granted access to the roof without interference…), I have a hard time believing that the one time that someone was dumb enough to make a move like this just happened to line up with the one time security was incompetent enough to allow it.
"how many of these incidents happen that get thwarted by competent security?"
It might be hard to tell since many it's hard to count the ones that were turned away by the right people just giving them the stinkeye, good physical security, demonstration of competent control over things like traffic where everyone has to pass multiple even soft checkpoints. Eventually they give up or the window of opportunity closes.
But _even then_ , someone will fill an inside straight if enough hands are played.
And if you're careless enough, "luck" will get your enemy. this is what posner calls "strategic recklessness." Like they guy who "falsely" accuses his foe of stealing $ because he "forgot" to ask for discovery into the books & records that would have disproven the charge. That way, you can defame your foe w/ impunity &, when you're caught, merely claim "mistake." Strategic reckless is 3rd option between stupidity & malice.
Could be. But it could also be that they let it happen. They are capable of killing a person that is an obstacle, we know it. Let it happen is perfect alibi.
I am a little skeptical of luck, if only because that’s a lot of luck that even a fairly deranged person probably wouldn’t expect to have. He picked the hq of the local police and happened to luck out that the roof was open and no one saw him approaching.
Did he know it was the police HQ?
Did he stalk around looking for roof tops or did he pick the best one accidentally?
I’d he planned this out, how did he know where good places to be were? If he acted spur of the moment, wouldn’t he have avoided the HQ?
I dunno, from the shooter’s perspective it seems like he knew where he wanted to be, and knew that it was where he wanted to be. That’s kind of surprising for a rando 20 year old with no training or info.
Drones don't care. Some humans are far easier to manipulate than others.
People have killed for "promise of heaven" or other some such imaginary business. Pick a vulnerable kid (truly 20 isn't quite adult) - and you can create what you want.
They claim they have. I have a friend whose son was nearly murdered by his (now ex) wife. The FBI took both phones and unlocked them with no problem. So when they say they can't, they're lying.
no doubt he had the "I belong here" body-language thing going. Hell, if you saw a guy carrying a ladder and a rifle in full view of a 100 snipers, without a hint of fear -- you'd figure he was supposed to be there, right?
Agreed. And, it's hard for any security to stop anyone who who gets that close with a rifle who doesn't mind dying. The shooter had only 5 seconds before he was shot by snipers. Anyone with a rifle, in a prone supported position could make that shot of only 150 yards with an iron sight.
or he just got really lucky and played a very stupid, blatant move to walk up to the most obvious place in the the whole set that should have been guarded but wasn't.
it's exactly where someone like him would go.
sometimes people just get lucky.
The question that comes to mind then is how many of these incidents happen that get thwarted by competent security? If this event happens 1000 times, is there a guy with a rifle brazenly trying to get on the roof who gets sniffed out 500 times? 100 times? 10? If something this sloppy (on the assassin’s end) happens often and we only know about this specific instance because it was the one time security was this incompetent, ok, fine. But if attempts this brazen are rare because of the inherent stupidity behind even trying it (…unless you know you’ll be granted access to the roof without interference…), I have a hard time believing that the one time that someone was dumb enough to make a move like this just happened to line up with the one time security was incompetent enough to allow it.
"how many of these incidents happen that get thwarted by competent security?"
It might be hard to tell since many it's hard to count the ones that were turned away by the right people just giving them the stinkeye, good physical security, demonstration of competent control over things like traffic where everyone has to pass multiple even soft checkpoints. Eventually they give up or the window of opportunity closes.
But _even then_ , someone will fill an inside straight if enough hands are played.
https://youtu.be/zMRrNY0pxfM?si=qs1LSCypksN7UORk
And if you're careless enough, "luck" will get your enemy. this is what posner calls "strategic recklessness." Like they guy who "falsely" accuses his foe of stealing $ because he "forgot" to ask for discovery into the books & records that would have disproven the charge. That way, you can defame your foe w/ impunity &, when you're caught, merely claim "mistake." Strategic reckless is 3rd option between stupidity & malice.
Could be. But it could also be that they let it happen. They are capable of killing a person that is an obstacle, we know it. Let it happen is perfect alibi.
agree
I am a little skeptical of luck, if only because that’s a lot of luck that even a fairly deranged person probably wouldn’t expect to have. He picked the hq of the local police and happened to luck out that the roof was open and no one saw him approaching.
Did he know it was the police HQ?
Did he stalk around looking for roof tops or did he pick the best one accidentally?
I’d he planned this out, how did he know where good places to be were? If he acted spur of the moment, wouldn’t he have avoided the HQ?
I dunno, from the shooter’s perspective it seems like he knew where he wanted to be, and knew that it was where he wanted to be. That’s kind of surprising for a rando 20 year old with no training or info.
It's too easy to make drones these days.
Exactly. Was this kid put up to it somehow? Maybe with a promise of a position in LE or something?
Drones don't care. Some humans are far easier to manipulate than others.
People have killed for "promise of heaven" or other some such imaginary business. Pick a vulnerable kid (truly 20 isn't quite adult) - and you can create what you want.
Sounds like he just wanted to be SOMEONE in this world.
Apparently no letters, no declaration on FB. If they could just open that darn phone 🙄
They claim they have. I have a friend whose son was nearly murdered by his (now ex) wife. The FBI took both phones and unlocked them with no problem. So when they say they can't, they're lying.
Seems to be another iteration of all the others. Off. Weak. Suggestible. Distracted parents.
My wife routinely wins at poker because she doesn't know what she's doing, and she plays a very unpredictable game as a result.
EGM, I sense you are playing devil’s advocate to stir the pot. 👍
Lolol.
I sense he's being totally sincere to stir the pot.
One word: ladder
no doubt he had the "I belong here" body-language thing going. Hell, if you saw a guy carrying a ladder and a rifle in full view of a 100 snipers, without a hint of fear -- you'd figure he was supposed to be there, right?
Also, his clothing didn’t match any of the other security’s.
He was disguised like this:
https://youtu.be/lO9oT-PZqOU?si=JXWUXuPFWOZ7YCG_&t=7s
Agreed. And, it's hard for any security to stop anyone who who gets that close with a rifle who doesn't mind dying. The shooter had only 5 seconds before he was shot by snipers. Anyone with a rifle, in a prone supported position could make that shot of only 150 yards with an iron sight.
Even a blind squirrel and all that…