I think Occam's Razor (the most straightforward explanation is most often the correct one) trumps (no pun intended) Hanlon's. For your explanation to be true (incompetence versus conspiracy), you have to line up a significant number of security failures; and as we are learning more about the chain of events, these failures are mounting. The more straightforward, and to many the most obvious, explanation is that this was a planned event involving more than just the shooter. Hopefully, the truth will eventually come out, but don't bet on it.
BTW, Napoleon Bonaparte beat Hanlon by two centuries when he reportedly said, "Never ascribe to malice that which is adequately explained by incompetence." But Napoleon may not be the best source for debunking conspiracies.
The upside of presuming Luck to be the most likely reason this all worked out is that it doesn't assume malice on anyone's part and yet is still plausible.
The more you try to ascribe behavior to Malice, the more likely you'll have to walk that claim back.
I think Occam's Razor (the most straightforward explanation is most often the correct one) trumps (no pun intended) Hanlon's. For your explanation to be true (incompetence versus conspiracy), you have to line up a significant number of security failures; and as we are learning more about the chain of events, these failures are mounting. The more straightforward, and to many the most obvious, explanation is that this was a planned event involving more than just the shooter. Hopefully, the truth will eventually come out, but don't bet on it.
BTW, Napoleon Bonaparte beat Hanlon by two centuries when he reportedly said, "Never ascribe to malice that which is adequately explained by incompetence." But Napoleon may not be the best source for debunking conspiracies.
The upside of presuming Luck to be the most likely reason this all worked out is that it doesn't assume malice on anyone's part and yet is still plausible.
The more you try to ascribe behavior to Malice, the more likely you'll have to walk that claim back.
I think he said ‘stupidity’ instead of ‘incompetence’ and in French, no doubt but it’s Napoleon’s remark, 200 years ago.