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northern new england
assessing the assessments
the essence of science and scientific credibility is generating a hypothesis, making forward predictions about outcomes, and then testing them to see if you got it right.
it’s really little more than that, but it’s also certainly nothing less.
so let’s take a look at this set of hypotheses and predictions made by the president on august 3rd 2021.
attribution was crystal clear.
so, let’s see how he did on this claim:
maine is 90% 12 and up vaxxed and more than 99% of the over 65’s . yet it has seen has seen record cases, record hospitalizations and near record deaths despite being nowhere near wheat is usually peak season. that won’t be for 4-6 weeks.
compared to this date last year, hospitalizations are 85% higher.
the lion’s share of hospitalizations are in 70+ with many of the rest in 60-69. this is a 99%+ vaccinated demographic.
this is NOT a pandemic of the unvaxxed. 70+ already set new highs at 99% vaxxed vs last year’s peak when 0% were DESPITE more natural immunity as well.
new hampshire looks the same. and it’s similarly 4-6 weeks from peak season. 98% of 12 and over vaxxed. 99%+ of over 65’s.
compared to this date last year, hospitalizations are 133% higher.
maybe vermont is better? nope. 94% of over 12’s vaxxed, 99%+ of over 65’s.
compared to this date last year, hospitalizations are 214% higher.
they have all exploded since biden’s claims (made right at about seasonal nadir) and all have vastly exceeded last year at this time. on cases and hospitalization, all have already exceeded last year’s PEAKS (though cases may be affected by testing rates and i have not run the math).
all are 4-6 weeks from what is usually the seasonal peak and just coming into what was the steep ramp last year.
clearly, brandon was trying to pass off seasonality as vaccine efficacy.
this prediction of a “clear link” between vaccines and lower rates and lower severity looks to have failed utterly.
there is simply no other way to put it.
it was just a cross correlation of vaccine rates and latitude.
seasons shifted, and so did covid expression. and vaccines seem to have done little or nothing to stop it.
just like certain internet felines hypothesized.
meanwhile, covid has dropped to the lowest rates since data collection began in the southern states biden and others were so anxious to pillory.
this has been an utter shambles of misinformation and misleading claims coming from DC. the fact that the white house is still getting this this astonishingly wrong when the data is so clear that even internet DOGS much less cats are nailing it is inexcusable.
this is either such rank incompetence or such towering mendacity as to disqualify those promulgating it from any future epidemiological utterances, much less determinations on what constitutes disinformation.