pfizer's magical mystery pill
is this the climbdown? because this pill invalidates the idea of vaccine mandates.
caveat: i have seen no data on this and it’s thus far only promises from a company that has been making claims that have failed to hold up from trials that looked rigged and slanted all year.
so i cannot really speak to anything about what this is or how it works.
that said, if they want to play this card, let’s see if we can’t play off of it too, because if they stand by these claims, it wrecks the case for the covid vaccines.
you can hear their CEO tell this new tale to CNBC.
risk down 89% for hospitalization and death. it’s a “game changer.” the pandemic as we know it is over.
who knows? we’ve already seen lots of drugs like that. they all got squelched or slow walked.
but this is pfizer, so it’s going to get double secret fast tracked. that much, you can count on.
it’s the timing that interests me.
this winter is about to be a disaster. sorry, but it is. it’s going to be worse than last winter, and it’s not some exogenous “the variants” driving it. it’s vaccine driven superspread and viral evolutionary inversion because the vaccines leak. heavily vaxxed places from israel to colorado that go into season are seeing worse, not better results than last year.
and it’s in the highest vaxxed groups. 94% of 65 and up have at least one dose in CO. but look who’s flooding hospitals…
the whole vaccine narrative, already wobbly on efficacy, is about to be in endless flames and it’s going to be WAY too big to hide.
so this pill does 3 things (assuming it works).
it generates a huge new revenue opportunity for pfizer
it plays mop up and will mask the failing vaccines under a blanket of vastly improved treatment by swamping one emerging curve under a new one.
BUT, and here’s the fun one, it also nearly totally undermines the pretexts for vaccine mandates or covid vaccination at all.
if a simple pill drops risk 89% (far more than vaccines do in real life) then why vaxx? why take the risk?
everyone’s base risk to mitigate drops 89%. that’s an order of magnitude. so the possible “reward” from the vaccines drops similarly.
but the risk from the outsized adverse even profile stays the same and it seems to only buy 6 months of protection anyhow.
meanwhile, protection from recovery looks far more effective, actually sterilizing, and long lasting.
so suddenly, getting sick and taking this pill is not just better immunity from covid, for 90% of people it’s probably lower risk than taking the vaccines.
no wonder moderna and biontech are trading down 20%…
if this is real, this is game over for vaccines.
you’d be literally insane to vaxx your 6 year old instead of waiting for this.
if this pill works, it drops their risk to basically zero.
you’d be nuts to get a booster.
why buy 6 months of iffy, non-sterilizing efficacy when taking your chances with 89% lower risk than before and winding up with far better (and likely permanent) immunity is lower risk as well?
obviously, we need to know more about this pill and its risks and efficacy to really do the math, but these vaccines were already negative expected value for kids by orders of magnitude, so you could flat out beat them with a sugar pill.
this was the data.
the cost of saving 34 hospitalizations is 300 hospitalizations. 8.8X risk to reward.
the cost of saving 0.31 deaths is 3.63 deaths. 11.7X risk to reward.
thus, even assuming NO prior covid exposure or acquired immunity, vaccinating all of america’s children's from 0-17 would result in:
194,446 dditional hospitalizations (4.9X those in all of covid so far)
2,427 additional deaths (5.5X those in all of covid so far)
vs literally letting every single child in america contract covid.
it would pile on 26 million kids unable to perform daily activity because they were too ill from vaccine reaction. (vs a disease that’s mostly mild or asymptomatic for them)
it would add nearly a million additional kids requiring medical care.
now shift the decimal point on “benefit” a full place to the left.
you’re not saving 34 hospitalizations per 100k kids, you’re preventing 3.4.
you’re not saving 3 deaths per million, you’re saving 0.3.
there’s literally no meaningful benefit left to provide and the risk ratios explode to 88X against vaxx for hospitalization and 117X against on deaths.
if this pill works and is even remotely safe, virtually no child should be covid vaxxed.
food for thought…
additional fun question:
is this why there was such intense action to keep ivermectin from being adopted in the US?