Discover more from bad cattitude
leaving out the important part: the CDC analysis on pediatric vaccines is pure garbage
this is not public health, it's public harm
one fact in medical care is unarguable:
medical interventions are everywhere and always a risk/benefit calculation.
this is just bedrock reality. nothing is free. you must always compare that which a treatment will gain you to that which it will cost you. you must weigh risk as well as reward.
anyone pushing just reward is lying to you.
i could douse you in gasoline and light you on fire. it would reduce your chance of being stung by a bee.
seem like a good trade?
and the CDC is, yet again, failing to do this or even acknowledge the concept.
and as a result, they are selling poison as preventative. again.
here is a zoom in on their chart. even if this were true (and i doubt very much it is once you remove the bayseian datacrime of definitional rigging and incomplete data records) this is still a disaster as a proposition for children.
i have added 2 key figures in red. the % reduction in risk is purported to be ~50%. let’s take them at their word and give them every benefit of doubt. as you’ll see, it does not matter.
50% sounds large, but it’s not. it’s meaningless.
you cannot tell if that’s a big deal until you know the base rate. reducing risk of dying of cancer in your life by 50% is very different from reducing the risk of being hit by space junk by 50%.
and this is closer to space junk.
the absolute drop is ~1.2 per 100k. (0.0012% of population spared)
the US has ~25 million kids aged 5-11.
so vaccinating very single one of them would prevent 300 hospitalizations a week or about 7800 every 6 months.
this is not even one per state per day.
now let’s look at what that costs:
i’ll use the CDC data for 12-15 because they claim 5-11 is similar.
hospitalization is 0.1% from dose 1 and 0.2% from dose 2. this is cumulative because you need both, so it’s 0.3% all in.
if we vaccinate all 25 million kids, we can expect 75,000 hospitalizations. this is nearly 10X what the vaccine would “prevent.”
so this is a very bad trade even before we pile on all the other issues like 25% being unbale to perform daily activities from dose 2 alone.
and you get outcomes like dose 2 again every 6 months from a booster (or you lose all your alleged efficacy, thought his too looks like more bayseian games). so you’re adding another 50,000 hospitalizations in every booster round to try to prevent 7,800, a number that will rapidly drop as more and more kids get covid and acquire the natural immunity that is so much stronger than vaccinated.
this is a horrendous bet.
the expected net value is massively negative. this would put over 100,000 extra kids in the hospital in the first year alone vs doing nothing.
that is a staggeringly bad policy.
and it has been clear that this is so for ages.
other countries are outright proscribing this practice of vaxxing kids because they see how bad this data is.
and yet the CDC continues to push badly contextualized data to make it look like “everyone 5+ years should get vaccinated.”
this is WAY over the line into overt medical malpractice. they have credulous parents clamoring to harm their own children because they refuse to discuss even the concept of risk/benefit.
there is no way this can be an accident or incomprehension any longer.
this is willful fraud and malfeasance.
and it is long past time it ended.