the omicron absurdities continue
more bizarre tall tales, data misrepresentation, and outright fabulism
let’s have a bit of a round up, shall we?
firstly, the primary terror being spread on omicron is that it has MUCH faster spread than any other variant before it. this is based on the rate of spread in south africa. but as certain internet felines have been wont to opine “reporting case rates without reference to testing level is tantamount to lying.”
and this is even worse. not only is testing adjusted case rate not scary, but there is a second wrinkle hidden in this data: most of this rise is due to a data discontinuity that blew all the averages into the stratosphere because the nature of the reporting changed.
on nov 23, south africa started including antigen tests in its case count.
it can be clearly seen in this graphic produced by long time gatopal™ @kerpen who has done so much really excellent work all pandemic (and who continues to do so).
so, there’s the mystery of the incredible spread rate solved. it’s a data splice. never, ever trust a trend change that takes place at a data splice. it’s 99%+ likely to be a data artifact. this certainly appears to be.
note that this will also likely have an effect on the % positive rate as people mostly do not report negative antigen results, only positive. this has the effect of severely salting the sample.
NICD @nicd_sa#COVID19 UPDATE: A total of 21,302 tests were conducted in the last 24hrs, with 2,273 new cases, which represents a 10.7% positivity rate. A further 25 #COVID19 related deaths have been reported, bringing total fatalities to 89,822 to date. See more here: https://t.co/YG74RzR3kH https://t.co/I1c08llnaT
next up, we have the “wE nEeD tO ISOlatE tHe sOUrCE!” so lock down travel nonsense. not only is this known not to work, but it’s way too late anyway. by the time you notice the spread of a respiratory pathogen, it’s already everywhere. this is why lockdowns and travel restrictions are just clown theater. they have a zero % chance of working.
omicron is already everywhere. if it were playing risk, this would be a hilariously stupid allocation of armies. but if it’s playing “pandemic,” well, it’s already over. it’s going global.
this horse is long since out of the barn, over the fence, and was last seen gaining speed through the neighbor’s yard…
next up is vaccine evasion. the answer here is “maybe” though frankly, so were the last ones. in the UK data, the vaccinated were getting much higher case rates than the unvaccinated. so this is hardly new.
but, unlike past variants, the vaccine companies are now leading the charge on “the vaccines will not work on omicron.” this is a 180 flip from past variant claims.
this represents an interesting pivot. i suspect it is self serving. the data is simply becoming too clear that the vaccines do not stop spread and instead make it worse. (just as certain cats warned about) the northeast in the US is about to be a calamity. hospitalizations in new hampshire, vermont, and maine are already exceeding last years peak despite sky high vaxx rates.
cases in MA, CT, RI, NY are now rising rapidly as the warm fall comes to an end and winter begins. watch for them to follow the northern neighbors. this is NOT omicron. this is delta. the vaccines are already falling apart in terms of efficacy because mRNA vaccines against a spike protein were and remain a BAD idea. it’s a bad design and was never going to plausibly provide durable sterilizing immunity. this leakiness has almost certainly made the virus itself worse.
my take is that this omiron vaccine evasion is not new, it’s just an excuse to hide what was already happening.
unless omi is going to lead to worse outcomes than “double the risk of contracting covid” it’s hard to see what the fuss is about, and if that IS the claim, then it’s awfully hard to see why “take more vaxx” is the answer.
and yet the “solutions” are the same tired zero data talking points.
or even a literal doubling down on that nonsense.
so, now we are to believe that because this variant is vaccine evading, the solution is to take twice as much of a vaccine already known to have the worst side effect profile of any vax ever approved for US use and that this variant has already evaded?
because that sounds like pouring more water on a lithium ion battery fire…
“let’s just swing WAY outside the already deeply questionable dose ranging?” is there even any data on this?
i mean, just how “one note” can a flute be?
is there literally any eventuality that would NOT result in US officialdom demanding more vaccine use?
is there literally any outcome on efficacy or side effects that would result in their recall from the market?
many EU countries already pulled moderna (and sometimes pfizer as well) for anyone under 30. but the US wants to mandate them for 5 year old school kids (and already has in many places, including puerto rico)
the UK is suddenly once more interested in vaccines made from whole virus.
but the US is still all about mRNA.
to describe these health officials as “floundering” is an insult to many fine paralichthys lethostigma.
this narrative is devolving into a scaffolding so thin and fragile that all but the most dogmatic and determined can see right through it.
unfortunately, many of that most devoted and pot committed cultist crew work in media and government.
expect a big surge in oppression and hectoring therefrom.
but expect (and participate in) a bigger surge of pushback from the middle who have had it with these tinhat biotyrants and pseudoscientific patricians.
this has jumped the shark on absurdity and is well into shrill, self aggrandizing posterior covering and emotional melt down.
it all falls apart for them from here.
do NOT let them out.