the same tired faucian bargaining

2 more weeks...

tony fauci is not much of an epidemiologist, or much of a disease expert. he never was and never will be. but he of endlessly TV ready soundbites and absurdist policy pronouncements is, in fact, a helluva politician. it is what has allowed him to remain atop the greasy pole of NIH bureaucracy, decade after decade, secure in his tidy little fiefdom. this only becomes an issue every couple of decades when something like AIDS or covid emerges and he strides to the fore to make a godawful mess of everything. he’s at it again and amazingly, does not even seem to have any new material.

just a “few more weeks” to “see a turning point” in the pandemic. to call this tripe is an insult to ruminant tummies. the simple fact is this:

we are way past the turning point on covid and current case counts adjusted for testing levels are the lowest since it began.

his claim is not even remotely, plausibly correct. facui is either hallucinating or attempting to get us to do so. fortunately, we have a thing called “data” with which we can assess such claims. let’s look:

first, let’s look what i believe to be the best cut at the data: case counts adjusted for testing level. this is a vital adjustment because if you test any given group twice as much, you find, ceteris paribus, twice the covid. this does not mean prevalence rose, it’s just an increase in sample rate. to see the real epidemiological curve, you must account for this. when one does, it looks like this: (all data through 4/25/21)

this adjustment is critical because it gives the curve its correct slope. a year ago, we tested far less so reported cases were lower. then testing rose massively. this made cases look like they spiked to new highs, but the did not. you can see this here:

the red line is what generally gets reported. the blue line is a far better approximation of what actually happened.

but, interestingly enough, neither even remotely supports that idea that we’re “a couple weeks from a turning point.” both show us at or near lows.

this is further supported by the % positive on covid tests. it too is breaking down to all time lows. we’re not heading for some turning point, we’re long past it. (and let’s face it, trusting fauci on “a few more weeks” has never been a good bet.)

this is just more performative public health policy amounting to made up stories to try to get people to do what tony thinks they should. he’s made it clear that he feels not just fine but good about lying to the american people to get them to do things and it’s clear he’s doing it again.

fauci has been wrong and dishonest. he’s carrying political water, not looking out for the public welfare, because he’s a politician and that’s what politicians do. the states that have repudiated his advice are outperforming those that continue to take it.

thanks to ianmSC for the graph.

(note: the sudden trapezoidal jump then drop is almost certainly a data artifact.)

it’s time to put this tired old snake oil salesman out to pasture. he has done enough harm for one lifetime. his desperation to stay on TV and keep the gravy trains flowing has long since eclipsed any shred of honesty, honor, or decency. his claims are so wildly out of line with the data as to disqualify him from any sort of serious discussion (and have been for most of the year.)

get this guy off the TV and let’s get back to living our lives. half the country has already done so and they are suffering no ill effects and all seem very glad they did. join them. the same could happen to you.