all cause mortality effects of covid vaccines in european children and kiwi adults
perhaps we see why so many countries are losing enthusiasm for this project
in europe, many countries are now contra-indicating (or outright barring) covid vaccines for the young and healthy.
this graph (with links to sources) from OS may give us a sense as to why.
all cause mortality is the gold standard for mortality benefit. in many clinical trials, this gets called “overall survival benefit.”
it’s a good capture of everything. it sums the whole of experience and you need not know what to look for to preform assessment. if you save one life from covid but cost 2 in complex adverse outcomes, this is where it will show up.
and that makes this graph (which i took the liberty of reproducing and adding a “vaccines commence” line to for legibility) deeply damaging to the case for jabbing the kiddos.
this timing is more than a little provocative. and this is the group where one would expect to see the strongest, clearest signal as there are so few other causes of death. this is the radio telescope far from noise and RF pollution. it will catch more input.
kids were, at vaxx commencement, below expected all cause mortality on a cumulative basis.
they peaked at about 300 over in april of 2020 and had been dropping ever since (the downward slope of a cumulative series shows incremental weeks having fewer than expected deaths.)
but as soon as vaccines were administered, that slope underwent a major change and has not looked back.
yet again, we cannot prove causality from this correlation, but it is jarringly precise in temporal alignment and caused a major and durable change in trend. those are not things one should simply dismiss.
coinciditis does indeed seem to be going around.
and it is in line with the relative absolute risk findings of the doshi/greenland et al paper of epi heavyweights that has been making such waves.
we’re seeing similar from new zealand: (new paper)
note that those under 29 (mostly not boosted) saw negative excess mortality (mortality below expectation). this seems an interesting potential “control” for the study.
and it has sure looked like booster AE’s were considerably higher than previous rounds.
that said, the data is noisy, messy, and full of possible contradictions as well, so it may be difficult/premature to draw definite conclusions as we could have deeper, more complex causes such as viral evolution (possibly vaxx driven) caused and/or enabled by boosters etc, but is is just this sort of 2nd and 3rd order complexity that makes using a broad catch all like ACM so appealing.
vexingly, the data to dramatically clarify this clearly exists. the governments have it, especially in single payor health systems. but, according to some folks i know who have been trying to get at it they are stonewalling FOIA style requests.
it would be great to see relative death rates in vaxxed vs unvaxxed by age and risk pool and to split that by vaxx type.
that’s what we’d really need to get to the bottom of this.
alas, i fear that those in possession of the data not wishing to allow such may be something of a tell on which way such an analysis might likely run.
one does not hide data that makes one look good.
(but that might just be me being “mr cynical paws” again…)
meanwhile, in the US (and as mentioned a couple weeks ago) the regulators seem to be playing a classic game of “don’t ask what you don’t wanna know.”
they are not even trying to find these signals.
this also speaks volumes and others are starting to notice.
popular youtube doctor “dr been” has picked up the message.
and the good doctor even went so far as to cite certain internet felines of questionable goodness, which is always welcome.
(and dr, should you like to speak on this further, i’m always happy to chat)
and as ever, longtime gatopal™ kbirb is on point with some fun math and a good graphic.
the departure here is getting awfully stark.
europe is giving up on these jabs for kids. and the US is pushing it hard. places like NYC are going to mandate them for schools. i’m sure some others will follow. the teachers unions (such as NEA) are making it a priority.
but how are we as a people to trust this?
how are we to accept such ill founded mandate from the very people who are refusing to do the basic work to perform a cost benefit analysis?
that’s all medicine is. cost/benefit. risk/reward.
“data so compelling we don’t need to look for it” is not a real thing.
neither is “benefit so clear we need to mandate it.”
if these products are so useful, lay out all the data. perform the safety assessments.
what you you have to fear?
and you might gain some trust back.
but fail to do so, and the omission becomes telling.
that is not how someone with a good case to be made behaves.
data suppression is not a sound basis for advice, much less mandate.
good products with good cost/benefit sell themselves.
they need not be forced.