I tested positive for the Rona (common cold) back in July 2020. I work in grocery and I don’t wear a mask. I haven’t gotten sick and I ride the bus to work. I’m exposed to this virus everyday and I still haven’t come down with anything. I live with three family members who are twice jabbed and boosted yet they keep catching the Rona and are constantly infecting each other. And yes they keep getting tested and call me a conspiracy theorist because I’m not getting tested anymore. I’m not here to argue with anyone about anything. I never bought into the whole Rona thing. I’m not going to live in a state of perpetual fear like most of my family members. This is my perspective and lay opinion. All my best… your unvaccinated and unafraid brain tumor survivor ❤️🧠🙏😉
Well, I myself never learn from math so depend on the kindness of strangers to do that for me.
By the way--the news in the past 3 or 4 days has been filled with youngish and not old people dying extremely suddenly, some in the midst of physical exertion (2 drownings). DePeche Mode guy determined to have died from an aortic dissection.
Really piling up in plain sight now.
Hoping everyone's vaxxed loved ones are taking their Vitamin C 1000mg capsules at least a couple of times a day. Absolutely serious here. If I could be the Vitamin Fairy too I'd visit everybody's house myself.
I'm no dummy, but math is not my specialty. But I'm thinking that the key is the fact that the vaxx makes it 4x more likely you'll get infected, right? So even though it lowers the percentage dying once infected, it causes more cases and thus more deaths? Is this right?
I’m sorry to be a pessimist, but I don’t see how this resolves. As a retired engineer (which is possibly another reason I’m a glass half empty guy), I followed the math and got the point. I doubt most people in our society can (despite Gato’s excellent explanation). Couple that with the fact Gato mentioned that countries with good data just stop publishing it when it becomes too embarrassing, or manipulate it in a deceptive way like the Minnesota DOH did, and got caught, and then just stopped publishing it.
With public health organizations as the gate keepers (i.e. credentialed “experts”), how does this mafia hold on the public awareness of the state of Covid ever get broken?
Ojalá que Gato is correct in his view in other posts that things are about to break and that the public view will soon change and there will be a lot of jersey swapping. For now I’m trying to seed my kids with seeds of doubt about the experts.
So, if you work as a risk manager - any risk has two dimensions: 1) likelihood of an event happening and 2) severity of impact, if it happens. In credit: PD = probability of default, and LGD = loss given default. You have to assess both. In a large retail portfolio, expected loss, EL = PD * LGD. If something will increase PD 4 times, and reduce LGD 50%, you very clearly would not want it. It's absolute basics, and typical way of fudging arguments (to assess only one). In my company they went even further in fudging: risk was not only assessed only in terms of severity, but only in terms of upper limit: anyone can get severely sick from Corona, therefore risk = severe. (therefore everyone must vaccinate).
This was a good way to explain things for people who aren't real good with numbers. Use round numbers and exaggerate the data to make the conclusions more visible. As long as you're honest about what exactly you're doing (which you were) it also helps to show how data can be manipulated to make outcomes seem smaller or larger than they actually are.
Fun with number made even more difficult by those who hide the numbers. That leaves only the population level data complicating the details. They (the ubiquitous they) don't make it easy.....
The vaccinated, unknowingly, bought into a Faustian bargain: reduce case fatality rate, but at the cost of having endless "cases".
I tested positive for the Rona (common cold) back in July 2020. I work in grocery and I don’t wear a mask. I haven’t gotten sick and I ride the bus to work. I’m exposed to this virus everyday and I still haven’t come down with anything. I live with three family members who are twice jabbed and boosted yet they keep catching the Rona and are constantly infecting each other. And yes they keep getting tested and call me a conspiracy theorist because I’m not getting tested anymore. I’m not here to argue with anyone about anything. I never bought into the whole Rona thing. I’m not going to live in a state of perpetual fear like most of my family members. This is my perspective and lay opinion. All my best… your unvaccinated and unafraid brain tumor survivor ❤️🧠🙏😉
You will NEVER EVER convince a blue-pill through VE. the maths are too complex and they won't get past the idea 'maybe the injections made it worse!'
The wedge is made entirely of Adverse Effects. Why are young people dying of heart attacks, etc?
Well, I myself never learn from math so depend on the kindness of strangers to do that for me.
By the way--the news in the past 3 or 4 days has been filled with youngish and not old people dying extremely suddenly, some in the midst of physical exertion (2 drownings). DePeche Mode guy determined to have died from an aortic dissection.
Really piling up in plain sight now.
Hoping everyone's vaxxed loved ones are taking their Vitamin C 1000mg capsules at least a couple of times a day. Absolutely serious here. If I could be the Vitamin Fairy too I'd visit everybody's house myself.
Approx. VE was 33% in Snohomish county before they removed the data, presumably because it kept getting worse.
https://simulationcommander.substack.com/p/et-tu-snohomish
Love the numbers.
No matter how you simplify it, nor how clear you make it, you can't convince someone with psychosis to give up their reality
I'm no dummy, but math is not my specialty. But I'm thinking that the key is the fact that the vaxx makes it 4x more likely you'll get infected, right? So even though it lowers the percentage dying once infected, it causes more cases and thus more deaths? Is this right?
just like from Drudge:
COVID CASES USA 7-DAY AVG
121.255 JUN 27 2022
11,839 JUN 27 2021
DEATHS 7-DAY AVG
398 JUN 27 2022
308 JUN 27 2021
I am shocked they even share this on Drudgey Drudge.
I’m sorry to be a pessimist, but I don’t see how this resolves. As a retired engineer (which is possibly another reason I’m a glass half empty guy), I followed the math and got the point. I doubt most people in our society can (despite Gato’s excellent explanation). Couple that with the fact Gato mentioned that countries with good data just stop publishing it when it becomes too embarrassing, or manipulate it in a deceptive way like the Minnesota DOH did, and got caught, and then just stopped publishing it.
With public health organizations as the gate keepers (i.e. credentialed “experts”), how does this mafia hold on the public awareness of the state of Covid ever get broken?
Ojalá que Gato is correct in his view in other posts that things are about to break and that the public view will soon change and there will be a lot of jersey swapping. For now I’m trying to seed my kids with seeds of doubt about the experts.
So, if you work as a risk manager - any risk has two dimensions: 1) likelihood of an event happening and 2) severity of impact, if it happens. In credit: PD = probability of default, and LGD = loss given default. You have to assess both. In a large retail portfolio, expected loss, EL = PD * LGD. If something will increase PD 4 times, and reduce LGD 50%, you very clearly would not want it. It's absolute basics, and typical way of fudging arguments (to assess only one). In my company they went even further in fudging: risk was not only assessed only in terms of severity, but only in terms of upper limit: anyone can get severely sick from Corona, therefore risk = severe. (therefore everyone must vaccinate).
It’s a bit like treating HIV with AZT….it’s not the HIV (carrier adenovirus) making you sick, it’s the drug preventing your cells from reproducing.
nicely explained, thanks
The trouble is that they want to repeat and not learn. How else should they push their agenda?
https://changeandevolve.substack.com/p/special-issue-22
This was a good way to explain things for people who aren't real good with numbers. Use round numbers and exaggerate the data to make the conclusions more visible. As long as you're honest about what exactly you're doing (which you were) it also helps to show how data can be manipulated to make outcomes seem smaller or larger than they actually are.
Dengue Fever vaccine in the Philippines made it more likely to get it or worse if you did before the Covid Vax showed up. People were prosecuted as well. https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(19)32525-5/fulltext
Fun with number made even more difficult by those who hide the numbers. That leaves only the population level data complicating the details. They (the ubiquitous they) don't make it easy.....