In the words of Bret Weinstein who has been an incorrigible wild card on multiple facets of the COVID discussion, "welcome to complex systems."
The most solidly supported conclusion of all is that it turns out it's really difficult to do good science and urgency does not excuse the need for it.
I love your balanced posts. Regarding counting hospitalizations, I went digging through the Montana COVID site way at the beginning, and they fully admit that they count a "COVID hospitalization" as both those hospitalized *for* COVID and those who test positive while in the hospital. From which we can conclude, you can go in for elective knee surgery, test positive for COVID, be asymptomatic, and still show up as a "COVID hospitalization." I suspect this is similar across states, and yes it is a highly ludicrous and deceptive practice and does not inspire confidence once you begin to understand how bad the data is but how much they act like it's something we all must take uber seriously. It's all a really big joke with a really bad punchline.
Thank you so much -- as always, but for this post especially -- for providing the sanest analysis throughout all this. You allow me to hang on to a tiny shred of hope that perhaps reason is not completely dead. It's clearly these days just running on fumes, but maybe, just maybe, there is hope.
A balanced analysis like this is a nice oasis from the madness. But I got to admit, watching government officials frothing at the mouth and talking about writing executive orders to "encourage" vaccination and then seeing the weaponized sheep point fingers at anyone who doesn't want to play along is scary.
Bravo 👏🏻 excellent analysis. We will not see the end of this #plan demic for years to come. Moderna has hired former FDA commissioner Stephen Hahn (via FlagshipPioneering) his predecessor now works for Pfizer. Furthermore plenty of published proof that Moderna is geared up to release mRNA vaccines for multiple strains of FLU, RSV and “variants of Covid”. The Quadrivalent mRNA is ready and Covalent “Covid” boosters likely ready for EUA by fall. Dive deep into #FlagshipPioneering and the founder (who is the co-founder of Moderna) and you will see a tangled web of plans including the controversial Epigenomics on the horizon that has investors salivating chomping at the bit, to double down on possibilities of patents that would solidify FlagshipPioneering as #1 :/ #NoEndInSight
Yesterday in news in the netherlands: most of the hospitalized are unvaccinated. If you pass headline then you find out it was kind of survey of lung doctors and we talk about 315 patients. From them 75% were unvaccinated or not vaccinated. There was no separation, no definition what is partly vaccinated (some count you as partly after second shot but still 2 weeks to go and only then you are fully vaccinated). There were no numbers, just % or parts. There were no information why these people were hospitalized. Absolute mess of data where everyone can imagine what they wish.
With statistics in my training, your take(s) are ihow I have been viewing the empirical data and logic around vaccines and masks...so I simply cannot understand why many Ivy League and other universities—supposedly bastions if intelligent people—are applying strict vaccine mandates for the fall term. It seems like insanity. Even acknowledging that their leaders may not actually be intelligent, why don’t the professors who know better protest against such stupid and destructive mandates? The UC system has just announced that it will likely be mandating boosters as well...!
a vaccinated human exposed to virus, it enters blood stream, enters cells and looks like the mrna influenced cells and your b memory cells call out t cells made from vaccine processing.
you get some c19 replication but t cell eat up the cells that make the new viruses....
what walensky said is possible but very unlikely ie that a vaccinated person could make a viral load that is transmissible. that is more unlikely than a mask doing any of what they say they do!
walensky's statement had a string of conditions, iirc a series of "mays"
i lost track and more than one condition in a probability statement requires a peer reviewed thesis with far more rigor than any covidian.......
c19 has been decoupling from deaths for over a year now, may be we are testing too much and getting closer to actual cases, may be a lot of things including less dry tinder, more immune from what ever, lessened bugs....
good news from harvard prof on ingraham .... studies show c19 and sars recuperated clear of cov colds too
implies delta not big deal,,,, with a cfr of 2/1000 in uk anyway! and short run gompertz in india.
With apology if someone already noted this, but there are some reports out of Israel that vaccine efficacy in preventing infection is down to 16% in those vaccinated in January. They are considering requiring a third vaccination for those over 60 - 70 years old, apparently. (As you noted in a previous post, the Israeli data is complex, but damn!)
Here's a question. Just saw a U.S. "transmission" of Delta Varian map showing many "red" areas. How is "transmission" tracked and who is collecting this data? Or are they still making it up as they go along? Thanks.
In the words of Bret Weinstein who has been an incorrigible wild card on multiple facets of the COVID discussion, "welcome to complex systems."
The most solidly supported conclusion of all is that it turns out it's really difficult to do good science and urgency does not excuse the need for it.
I love your balanced posts. Regarding counting hospitalizations, I went digging through the Montana COVID site way at the beginning, and they fully admit that they count a "COVID hospitalization" as both those hospitalized *for* COVID and those who test positive while in the hospital. From which we can conclude, you can go in for elective knee surgery, test positive for COVID, be asymptomatic, and still show up as a "COVID hospitalization." I suspect this is similar across states, and yes it is a highly ludicrous and deceptive practice and does not inspire confidence once you begin to understand how bad the data is but how much they act like it's something we all must take uber seriously. It's all a really big joke with a really bad punchline.
Thank you so much -- as always, but for this post especially -- for providing the sanest analysis throughout all this. You allow me to hang on to a tiny shred of hope that perhaps reason is not completely dead. It's clearly these days just running on fumes, but maybe, just maybe, there is hope.
A balanced analysis like this is a nice oasis from the madness. But I got to admit, watching government officials frothing at the mouth and talking about writing executive orders to "encourage" vaccination and then seeing the weaponized sheep point fingers at anyone who doesn't want to play along is scary.
On @NPR just now, @ScottGottliebMD says he heard CDC stopped collecting outpatient data on all breakthrough cases “for cost reasons.”
How can these people get out of bed and keep doing this????
Bravo 👏🏻 excellent analysis. We will not see the end of this #plan demic for years to come. Moderna has hired former FDA commissioner Stephen Hahn (via FlagshipPioneering) his predecessor now works for Pfizer. Furthermore plenty of published proof that Moderna is geared up to release mRNA vaccines for multiple strains of FLU, RSV and “variants of Covid”. The Quadrivalent mRNA is ready and Covalent “Covid” boosters likely ready for EUA by fall. Dive deep into #FlagshipPioneering and the founder (who is the co-founder of Moderna) and you will see a tangled web of plans including the controversial Epigenomics on the horizon that has investors salivating chomping at the bit, to double down on possibilities of patents that would solidify FlagshipPioneering as #1 :/ #NoEndInSight
Yesterday in news in the netherlands: most of the hospitalized are unvaccinated. If you pass headline then you find out it was kind of survey of lung doctors and we talk about 315 patients. From them 75% were unvaccinated or not vaccinated. There was no separation, no definition what is partly vaccinated (some count you as partly after second shot but still 2 weeks to go and only then you are fully vaccinated). There were no numbers, just % or parts. There were no information why these people were hospitalized. Absolute mess of data where everyone can imagine what they wish.
With statistics in my training, your take(s) are ihow I have been viewing the empirical data and logic around vaccines and masks...so I simply cannot understand why many Ivy League and other universities—supposedly bastions if intelligent people—are applying strict vaccine mandates for the fall term. It seems like insanity. Even acknowledging that their leaders may not actually be intelligent, why don’t the professors who know better protest against such stupid and destructive mandates? The UC system has just announced that it will likely be mandating boosters as well...!
Thanks for being a trusted voice in the midst of madness.
Why won't they just stop testing? They don't want COVID to go away, and I don't know why.
the way it seems to work...
a vaccinated human exposed to virus, it enters blood stream, enters cells and looks like the mrna influenced cells and your b memory cells call out t cells made from vaccine processing.
you get some c19 replication but t cell eat up the cells that make the new viruses....
what walensky said is possible but very unlikely ie that a vaccinated person could make a viral load that is transmissible. that is more unlikely than a mask doing any of what they say they do!
i never went out ewith a may.
walensky's statement had a string of conditions, iirc a series of "mays"
i lost track and more than one condition in a probability statement requires a peer reviewed thesis with far more rigor than any covidian.......
c19 has been decoupling from deaths for over a year now, may be we are testing too much and getting closer to actual cases, may be a lot of things including less dry tinder, more immune from what ever, lessened bugs....
good news from harvard prof on ingraham .... studies show c19 and sars recuperated clear of cov colds too
implies delta not big deal,,,, with a cfr of 2/1000 in uk anyway! and short run gompertz in india.
With apology if someone already noted this, but there are some reports out of Israel that vaccine efficacy in preventing infection is down to 16% in those vaccinated in January. They are considering requiring a third vaccination for those over 60 - 70 years old, apparently. (As you noted in a previous post, the Israeli data is complex, but damn!)
Simply outstanding analysis… You and @ethicalskeptic are my absolute favorites!
Here's a question. Just saw a U.S. "transmission" of Delta Varian map showing many "red" areas. How is "transmission" tracked and who is collecting this data? Or are they still making it up as they go along? Thanks.
Excellent analysis, gato.
This is what we get by throwing away all pandemic preparedness plans, and relying on voodoo rituals.