So, a member of the CDC ACIP (Dr. Wilbur Chen) will be returning to give a follow-up presentation at my workplace on September 7th, to highlight the latest variants and success of the vaccines. His first presentation 2 months ago to us included a lot of cheerleading for how fast the vaccines were developed and distributed (claiming no safety shortcuts), and then outright excitement for the prospect of full FDA approval followed by authorization in September/October for administering to toddlers and eventually infants. The man is a shill of the highest order, and a lot of folks at my company are totally enthralled with him. Guessing it's because he wears a bow-tie and lab coat during his presentation....
Further muddying the issue is whether the case counts become decoupled from severe illness and death? We *are* seeing that, and is it solely attributable to higher rates of natural immunity? I'm not so sure.
Now, to a sane group of policymakers, the case count should not even be relevant should it? Wasn't the big push (I know, ancient history) to prevent overwhelmed hospitals? Our actions make no sense if that goal is kept in mind.
We are not primarily up against the issue of vaccine efficacy. We are primarily up against the dangerous utopian thinking that still harbors hopes of eradicating SARS-CoV-2 (but won't come right out and say it).
Great stuff, gato. There is a small subset of us working in medicine that shares so many of your very pointed observations and concerns. The rest continue to drink the cool-aid in stunning fashion.
I was taught evidence-based medicine and to first do no harm. The management of covid has me question medicine's adherence to these basic tenets on a daily basis.
To flip the script on the terribly dishonest (and very poorly done) study released by the CDC in the MMWR last week touting the benefit of vaccinating those with natural immunity - I wonder if there is any longitudinal data comparing those vaccinated that did not have a prior infection to those vaccinated that did have documented prior infection? Perhaps not. The question, however, is very pertinent when considering the rate of breakthrough infections in each cohort and whether there is a meaningful difference.
Are the vaccines actually performing even worse than advertised if one removes the subset that also has previous natural immunity? It would seem an important question.
I sure hope you're right and this is the bridge too far. The data we're seeing from the rest of the world makes me much more nervous for winter this year than last.
In the White House Covid-19 Response Briefing yesterday, CDC Director Walensky admitted that the data coming out of Israel suggests that those who were vaxxed early are at increased risk of serious disease with infection...not just infection.
I'm no expert, but that seems like a possible signal of ADE.
I didn't understand the "booster" push in Israel (about a million injections already). If the problem is an escape variant, how is another injection of the potion for last year's virus gonna help? Two weeks ago, I saw an interview of the Israeli Health minister in which she claimed the problem was waning immunity...those vaxxed early had a significantly higher chance of breakthrough infection than those vaxxed late. Now, the CDC is saying they have a higher risk of serious disease. We've gone pretty far off the rails in a few weeks time.
As I understand it, there are three basic "channels" leading to ADE:
1.) The non-neutralizing antibodies recognize the new viral variant but don't prevent it from infecting cells. The immune system is tricked into believing it's got everything under control, so code red is not activated.
2.) The non-neutralizing antibodies recognize the new viral variant and literally help it infect cells. The immune system is tricked into believing it's got everything under control, so code red is not activated.
3.) The risk of ADE increases as the vaxx antibodies decrease. I'm not sure how this works with the first two "channels or if it's an independent risk.
Do we have any idea what is actually happening in the bodies of these people who have breakthrough infections?
Is there a study that has measured vaxx-induced B cell and T-cell immunity?
'Cause it would appear that these "vaccines" are not stimulating long term immunity.
I think the "public health experts" are scared that a whole lot of "fully vaxxed" people are going to become very ill and die this winter. On a positive note, that undercuts the claim that this was all done on purpose to kill off a good portion of the global population.
Walensky just came out and said they don’t anticipate annual shots being necessary. Aside from the fact that they didn’t anticipate boosters or waning efficacy, I see this as an attempt to get ahead of the reaction many are having to the prospect of infinite shots. So much dithering and backtracking, who could take these clowns seriously at this point but the covid faithful?
I commented on this Tweet yesterday in Twitter. A couple of notes.
Cases are only 500 in vaxxed but 1,200 in unvaxxed in those age group per 100k? No chance that true. He doesn't say if its cumulative or the latest week but they are virtually identical. One is not double the other. I can send the calcs if you'd like.
Second, these snapshots are frustrating. Simply put, if vaccines have any positive VE, the R should be much lower in vaxed groups. For example, if R in unvaxxed is 2, then 70% VE means R in vaxxed groups should be 1.4. You would see a significant widening in total cases for each group over time (hence the snapshot issue). But growth rates (actual R) in vaxxed and unvaxxed are extremely close - over the last 4 weeks in Israel they are 1.8/week unvaxxed vs 1.7/week vaxxed).
I also have all this data broken out by age group. since Israel has detailed data. We are also watching the over 60 group in Israel which is 70% boosted. If its actually boosting infection prevention we should see a rapid reduction in case group in the group vs unvaxxed and under 60. Nothing yet.
Do you have a view on monoclonal antibody treatment? If someone recovers with the aid of monoclonal antibodies, do they retain natural immunity? Or is it more like the vaccine-induced resistance?
So glad to have found you again, Gato. I have missed all your brilliant analysis and wisdom (which is a whole lot clearer in 24 paragraphs than 240 characters!).
I came to read you today, because I needed some uplifting thoughts. Both of my double-vaxxed parents, in their 80s, have a bad case of COVID now. I am fearful that what some experts have been predicting is coming to pass--the vaccine might actually people *more* susceptible to the disease, once the honeymoon (early reaction period) is over.
On top of that, I can't convince them to try the now-vindicated therapeutics like Ivermectin or HCQ, due to the plethora of gas-lighting articles and reports that have convinced them these drugs are poisonous! And please understand, my parents are not "rubes" -- Mom was a bench chemist and Dad was an engineer. But when the gov't controls the narrative, even smart people can be fooled...and killed.
Well, enough rambling. Burying myself in good data and pretty charts is the nerdy girls' refuge. Thank you for your posts!
Dr Pierre Kory just relayed that the gamma, aka P1, Brasil variant makes delta look like nothing. It's WAY more severe. (odysee, FLCCC, Aug 18, 6m mark). Thank you for this blog. It's painfully clear, we are all on our own. Following these idiots in government just creates more disasters.
In an attempt to convince parents that children should be vaccinated, a pediatrician has stated that 1 in 5 people who experience Covid-19 infection develop heart damage that is permanent whereas 1 in 500 persons vaccinated develops myocarditis. Has anyone seen this comparison? Does real data refute this claim?
maybe early vaccinators self-deleted for some attribute that biased the samples. Maybe they were wrapped in plastic for 12 months then happily rushed out for the jab, suggesting a lower prevalence of unknown prior infection. Or maybe those who knew they had natural immunity got arm-twisted into the jab later in the process. Hard to control for levels of natural immunity and plenty of reasons for why it may not be consistent across vac-time cohorts.
So, a member of the CDC ACIP (Dr. Wilbur Chen) will be returning to give a follow-up presentation at my workplace on September 7th, to highlight the latest variants and success of the vaccines. His first presentation 2 months ago to us included a lot of cheerleading for how fast the vaccines were developed and distributed (claiming no safety shortcuts), and then outright excitement for the prospect of full FDA approval followed by authorization in September/October for administering to toddlers and eventually infants. The man is a shill of the highest order, and a lot of folks at my company are totally enthralled with him. Guessing it's because he wears a bow-tie and lab coat during his presentation....
Further muddying the issue is whether the case counts become decoupled from severe illness and death? We *are* seeing that, and is it solely attributable to higher rates of natural immunity? I'm not so sure.
Now, to a sane group of policymakers, the case count should not even be relevant should it? Wasn't the big push (I know, ancient history) to prevent overwhelmed hospitals? Our actions make no sense if that goal is kept in mind.
We are not primarily up against the issue of vaccine efficacy. We are primarily up against the dangerous utopian thinking that still harbors hopes of eradicating SARS-CoV-2 (but won't come right out and say it).
"Third COVID vaccine dose could be the last". A few doritos later..."We need an additional 4th dose". Rinse and repeat.
Seriously, if two doses aren't looking good, what makes them think a 3rd (or more) are going to cut it? Where are the trials?
And natural immunity is still being ignored...
Great stuff, gato. There is a small subset of us working in medicine that shares so many of your very pointed observations and concerns. The rest continue to drink the cool-aid in stunning fashion.
I was taught evidence-based medicine and to first do no harm. The management of covid has me question medicine's adherence to these basic tenets on a daily basis.
To flip the script on the terribly dishonest (and very poorly done) study released by the CDC in the MMWR last week touting the benefit of vaccinating those with natural immunity - I wonder if there is any longitudinal data comparing those vaccinated that did not have a prior infection to those vaccinated that did have documented prior infection? Perhaps not. The question, however, is very pertinent when considering the rate of breakthrough infections in each cohort and whether there is a meaningful difference.
Are the vaccines actually performing even worse than advertised if one removes the subset that also has previous natural immunity? It would seem an important question.
I sure hope you're right and this is the bridge too far. The data we're seeing from the rest of the world makes me much more nervous for winter this year than last.
In the White House Covid-19 Response Briefing yesterday, CDC Director Walensky admitted that the data coming out of Israel suggests that those who were vaxxed early are at increased risk of serious disease with infection...not just infection.
I'm no expert, but that seems like a possible signal of ADE.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X2CESL6Ej1M&t=1s
I didn't understand the "booster" push in Israel (about a million injections already). If the problem is an escape variant, how is another injection of the potion for last year's virus gonna help? Two weeks ago, I saw an interview of the Israeli Health minister in which she claimed the problem was waning immunity...those vaxxed early had a significantly higher chance of breakthrough infection than those vaxxed late. Now, the CDC is saying they have a higher risk of serious disease. We've gone pretty far off the rails in a few weeks time.
As I understand it, there are three basic "channels" leading to ADE:
1.) The non-neutralizing antibodies recognize the new viral variant but don't prevent it from infecting cells. The immune system is tricked into believing it's got everything under control, so code red is not activated.
2.) The non-neutralizing antibodies recognize the new viral variant and literally help it infect cells. The immune system is tricked into believing it's got everything under control, so code red is not activated.
3.) The risk of ADE increases as the vaxx antibodies decrease. I'm not sure how this works with the first two "channels or if it's an independent risk.
Do we have any idea what is actually happening in the bodies of these people who have breakthrough infections?
Is there a study that has measured vaxx-induced B cell and T-cell immunity?
'Cause it would appear that these "vaccines" are not stimulating long term immunity.
I think the "public health experts" are scared that a whole lot of "fully vaxxed" people are going to become very ill and die this winter. On a positive note, that undercuts the claim that this was all done on purpose to kill off a good portion of the global population.
Walensky just came out and said they don’t anticipate annual shots being necessary. Aside from the fact that they didn’t anticipate boosters or waning efficacy, I see this as an attempt to get ahead of the reaction many are having to the prospect of infinite shots. So much dithering and backtracking, who could take these clowns seriously at this point but the covid faithful?
This was a great article today. You really knocked it out of the park especially concerning the very flimsy evidence supporting the booster.
I commented on this Tweet yesterday in Twitter. A couple of notes.
Cases are only 500 in vaxxed but 1,200 in unvaxxed in those age group per 100k? No chance that true. He doesn't say if its cumulative or the latest week but they are virtually identical. One is not double the other. I can send the calcs if you'd like.
Second, these snapshots are frustrating. Simply put, if vaccines have any positive VE, the R should be much lower in vaxed groups. For example, if R in unvaxxed is 2, then 70% VE means R in vaxxed groups should be 1.4. You would see a significant widening in total cases for each group over time (hence the snapshot issue). But growth rates (actual R) in vaxxed and unvaxxed are extremely close - over the last 4 weeks in Israel they are 1.8/week unvaxxed vs 1.7/week vaxxed).
I also have all this data broken out by age group. since Israel has detailed data. We are also watching the over 60 group in Israel which is 70% boosted. If its actually boosting infection prevention we should see a rapid reduction in case group in the group vs unvaxxed and under 60. Nothing yet.
I wish I could post images in a response...
Do you have a view on monoclonal antibody treatment? If someone recovers with the aid of monoclonal antibodies, do they retain natural immunity? Or is it more like the vaccine-induced resistance?
So glad to have found you again, Gato. I have missed all your brilliant analysis and wisdom (which is a whole lot clearer in 24 paragraphs than 240 characters!).
I came to read you today, because I needed some uplifting thoughts. Both of my double-vaxxed parents, in their 80s, have a bad case of COVID now. I am fearful that what some experts have been predicting is coming to pass--the vaccine might actually people *more* susceptible to the disease, once the honeymoon (early reaction period) is over.
On top of that, I can't convince them to try the now-vindicated therapeutics like Ivermectin or HCQ, due to the plethora of gas-lighting articles and reports that have convinced them these drugs are poisonous! And please understand, my parents are not "rubes" -- Mom was a bench chemist and Dad was an engineer. But when the gov't controls the narrative, even smart people can be fooled...and killed.
Well, enough rambling. Burying myself in good data and pretty charts is the nerdy girls' refuge. Thank you for your posts!
Here is an ongoing study in Texas you might find interesting
https://sph.uth.edu/projects/texascares/
Dr Pierre Kory just relayed that the gamma, aka P1, Brasil variant makes delta look like nothing. It's WAY more severe. (odysee, FLCCC, Aug 18, 6m mark). Thank you for this blog. It's painfully clear, we are all on our own. Following these idiots in government just creates more disasters.
In an attempt to convince parents that children should be vaccinated, a pediatrician has stated that 1 in 5 people who experience Covid-19 infection develop heart damage that is permanent whereas 1 in 500 persons vaccinated develops myocarditis. Has anyone seen this comparison? Does real data refute this claim?
Note: Erans comment was only to show the need for boosters which he now proclaims will in fact save the day
https://twitter.com/segal_eran/status/1428428502139822089
maybe early vaccinators self-deleted for some attribute that biased the samples. Maybe they were wrapped in plastic for 12 months then happily rushed out for the jab, suggesting a lower prevalence of unknown prior infection. Or maybe those who knew they had natural immunity got arm-twisted into the jab later in the process. Hard to control for levels of natural immunity and plenty of reasons for why it may not be consistent across vac-time cohorts.