yes, i realize this is take number 2,741 on what has become a well explored issue, but as this covid season comes to an end in northern new england, i thought it would be fitting to check in one more time especially as many studies like THIS are out admitting that none of the NPI’s like lockdown, masking, distancing, school closure, etc worked but taking the (unsubstantiated) view that “vaccines did work” as a sort of assumptive premise and,

this looks like a deeply fraught assumption and one we need to get on top of if we wish to stop making the same mistakes over and over.

the societal data is simply not backing up the “covid vaccines stopped deaths and spared hospitals” narrative.

we’ve seen this all over the world and it’s apparent in the US as well.

i pulled out 3 of the top vaxxed states (that happen to share a seasonal patterns as well) to take a look.

the results, as ever, do not seem to favor any meaningful covid vaccine efficacy.

i aligned several charts by date to make this graphically apparent. temporal vaxx data is from OWID, hospital by age is from the NYT (as is vaxx rate by age), and excess death from USmortality.com.

we see a worrying pattern in much of northern new england. jan-jun 2021 was the meat of the vaccines campaign there. overall vaxx rates were very high, but just a couple months post getting over 50-60% we see unseasonable early and higher rates of hospitalization in vermont. we also see a surge in excess mortality that remains sustained.

maine looks nearly identical:

and rhode island also very similar, though it look like the AUC (area under curve) for hospitalizations is pretty much flat year on year, not up as in the others.

i’m just not seeing any way to look at this and see vaccines working on any kind of societal level. if they were, these curves would be bending aggressively. you’d see lower hospitalization and a drop in overall deaths

the rises in all cause deaths make it clear that there is something real going on, not just overcounting and at the end of the day, this total societal impact is the real measure of public health. you need to see the whole picture so that you are not myopically thinking that reducing walking deaths by 4 was a great outcome because you missed the fact that you added 9 new driving deaths.

the only thing i can really find that looks like it reduces 2021 all cause mortality in new england is high all cause mortality in 2020. this is the so called “pull forward” or “dry tinder” effect where vulnerable cohorts get depleted and so future deaths are lessened.

we can see this in connecticut who had such a large spike in april and may of 2020 (but STILL managed a +40% excess deaths spike in jan)

their levels have been elevated in 2021, but not to a degree greatly above the prior winter.

massachusetts looks much the same albeit at ~+20% excess deaths.

and new hampshire, which never had a huge 2020 surge has had a longer elevated plateau also in the +20%ish range.

more than anything, this and all the endless failure of the NPI’s is all just bringing us back to the simple refrain that many of us were singing all along:

virus gonna virus.

it’s an aerosol RTI. more or less nothing we have done has had any real effect on spread and this was known, enshrined in 100 years of data driven pandemic guidelines, and did not change. it was glaringly obvious by even april of 2020 to anyone who cared to look.

vaccines were supposed to be a game changer. they weren’t.

vaccines did not help either in terms of either spread or severity.

there may have been a point when vaccines were somewhat attenuating severity, but their leaky nature ensured rapid viral escape and it looks like their propensity to increase spread and contagion more than swamped any individual reduction in risk. reducing risk of death from getting covid by 1/3 while increasing the risk of contracting it by 100% is a net rise in overall death risk masquerading as vaccine efficacy.

the study data on which these shams were approved will be coming out in coming months. it’s going to become crystal clear how badly we were mislead and how the study design and results were rigged and how corners were cut. this has been one of the greatest blunders in public health history and a fiasco for regulators and governments.

the simple fact is that the instant these vaccines were seen to be non-sterilizing, their administration should have been halted.

any sane or competent regulator or medical agency or practitioner should have known that. highly leaky vaccines are a disaster and covering that up in a pivot to “they were never supposed to stop spread” was as dishonest as it was full blown medical malpractice.

the VAERS spike alone should have ended this instantly and would have for any other vaccine in history had it produced even 1/100th this signal. (and this is, of course, just a tiny fraction of what really happened. VAERS reporting is massively incomplete (90-99% underreporting) it’s just an alarm bell, not a counting system.)

those meant to be protectors of public health turned pushers of purloined panacea.

this was FAR worse than doing nothing. this was having your mom slather you in toxic baby oil she told you was sunscreen.

Some 17% of schoolchildren never use sunscreen

the gravity of just how much damage this has done and on what flimsy and contrived basis it was railroaded through beggars belief.

bad cattitude

if covid vaccines work then why haven't they…