el gato malo: thanks for all the work you put into these posts. On a somewhat related note, what effects are you noticing for folks who were previously infected, but then got vaccinated? Does the vaccine negate, reverse or undermine protections afforded by natural immunity? (my wife and I are both military, thus being forced to take this crap, but we've both had previous infection and been perfectly fine....we are holding out as long as we can w/o losing our jobs, and are nervous that this will undermine our natural protections, or unnecessarily cause other issues).
Simple answer, Delta has a lower CFR, the increase in apparent deaths is from vaccine injury, most of which occurs in the first two weeks after injection, and just coincidentally I'm sure, deaths or cases occurring in the two weeks after vaccine injection (most of which are in actuality vaccine injury), are counted as "unvaccinated".
Vaccinated are getting sick and then spreading via massive viral loads, which is having a bad outcome for weaker unvaxxed people. This is why early treatment with Ivermectin, zinc, antibiotics, steroids, ect, is a good idea for anyone that gets infected. Knock that shit down quickly.
Not sure if you follow the weekly webcasts from FLCCC, but on their August 18th, 2021 webcast, Dr. Keith Berkowitz points out that he's seeing vaccinated patients with high antibody counts (>2500) that are coming in with new COVID infections. I think he brings up a good question, namely does the immune response to the mRNA vaccines and the antibody measurements resulting from that provide any meaningful information with regard to efficacy.
I'm still not convinced that the jabs provide protection against serious disease and death. The fully vaxxed are less likely to be infected (but closing the gap), less likely to seek care, less likely to be hospitalized...but more of them died. Something is off.
===================================
SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern and variants under investigation in England/Technical briefing 23/September 17, 2021
Public Health England reports that Delta is the dominant variant in the UK. This variant accounted for 99% of sequenced and 98% genotyped cases from July 25 through July 31, 2021 in England (PHE technical briefing 20/August 8 ).
PCR cycle threshold (Ct) values from routinely undertaken tests in England show that Ct values (and by inference viral load) are similar between individuals who are unvaccinated and vaccinated.
This whole issue of variants is just more gaslighting. The genetic differences among these so-called variants is minuscule. It is so small has to be Insignificant. Anybody who has had natural Covid and recovered will have durable long lasting protection to all the variants.
The whole discussion about variants Is just more fear mongering propaganda
This makes sense..Issue is that nobody worries about veracity and logic anymore. The truth is just too tedious. Find a news article that fits your point of view and wave the accompanying chart in people's faces. This is what guides public health policy these days.
So I am a simpleton - I know. But how is 76% of the deaths in the vaccinated evidence that the vaccines are preventing death? I would have expected that the vaccinated would represent less than 50 % of the deaths if the vaccines were strongly protective?
Excellent analysis as always. Something I don't quite understand about the "vaccinated superspread hypothesis,” is why would it drive up CFR? It certainly would increase the total case count, and it would in theory promote hotter variants, but delta isn't that. Is the idea that higher viral loads in the vaccinated is resulting not only in higher contagion, but also in more symptomatic disease for the people they spread to? Is there precedent for that?
If vaccines where driving down the CFR, wouldn’t we see a substantial difference in CFR vax vs unvax? Clearly not the case, except in the US, where everyone that is hospitalized or dying of covid are unvaxxed and using their dying words to promote the vaccine. (Insert eye roll)
How does the difference in CFR vs IFR affect this argument? You only have a case if someone gets tested. You could have a whole host of people, vaccinated and not, not getting tested. Of course, IFR is almost impossible to know with any certainty it would seem.
I was always under the impression that the increased transmissibility of Delta with lower fatality rate was an example of that classic example of viral mutations selecting for less severity in order to maximize chances of retaining available hosts. I recently read somewhere (I think an article by a Hawaiian physician) that this is actually a "myth"? I had never heard that before.
But in any case I don't know how you could look at the vaccination curve alongside Delta and conclude vaccines get credit for the (thankfully) still-lower CFR.
Moreover, what about India? Still abysmally (or blessedly) low rate of full vaccination and Delta seems not to be hitting them particularly hard past that first wave.
But why is delta CFR rising? Your hypothesis about vaccinated super spread makes sense, but that doesn’t affect CFR. Do high viral loads spread super disease? Is there a new variant that hasn’t been identified yet? I can’t see any other possibilities that would cause CFR to go up in both vaccinated and unvaccinated.
Excellent work, as always. I'd like to find a way to calculate the protection your work provides against the malfeasance of the Covidians. I think it would be higher than VE against COVID.
I have a question, however. The Delta CFR is, of course, a critical premise of your argument. Do you have a sense of how accurate that number is? I assume it's not based on 100% sequencing of samples, but on some selection criteria for samples to sequence and model assumptions for calculating the overall Delta CFR. Is that correct? Do you think it's reliable?
el gato malo: thanks for all the work you put into these posts. On a somewhat related note, what effects are you noticing for folks who were previously infected, but then got vaccinated? Does the vaccine negate, reverse or undermine protections afforded by natural immunity? (my wife and I are both military, thus being forced to take this crap, but we've both had previous infection and been perfectly fine....we are holding out as long as we can w/o losing our jobs, and are nervous that this will undermine our natural protections, or unnecessarily cause other issues).
Simple answer, Delta has a lower CFR, the increase in apparent deaths is from vaccine injury, most of which occurs in the first two weeks after injection, and just coincidentally I'm sure, deaths or cases occurring in the two weeks after vaccine injection (most of which are in actuality vaccine injury), are counted as "unvaccinated".
Vaccinated are getting sick and then spreading via massive viral loads, which is having a bad outcome for weaker unvaxxed people. This is why early treatment with Ivermectin, zinc, antibiotics, steroids, ect, is a good idea for anyone that gets infected. Knock that shit down quickly.
Not sure if you follow the weekly webcasts from FLCCC, but on their August 18th, 2021 webcast, Dr. Keith Berkowitz points out that he's seeing vaccinated patients with high antibody counts (>2500) that are coming in with new COVID infections. I think he brings up a good question, namely does the immune response to the mRNA vaccines and the antibody measurements resulting from that provide any meaningful information with regard to efficacy.
And India, where delta was first noticed, saw the same lower CFR despite being just 2% vaxed (as Americans hoarded vax for non-vulnerable).
I'm still not convinced that the jabs provide protection against serious disease and death. The fully vaxxed are less likely to be infected (but closing the gap), less likely to seek care, less likely to be hospitalized...but more of them died. Something is off.
===================================
SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern and variants under investigation in England/Technical briefing 23/September 17, 2021
Public Health England reports that Delta is the dominant variant in the UK. This variant accounted for 99% of sequenced and 98% genotyped cases from July 25 through July 31, 2021 in England (PHE technical briefing 20/August 8 ).
PCR cycle threshold (Ct) values from routinely undertaken tests in England show that Ct values (and by inference viral load) are similar between individuals who are unvaccinated and vaccinated.
Delta in England as of 9/12/2021...
Unvaxxed: 257,357 cases/722 deaths/0.2805%
Unvaxxed <50: 248,803 cases/132 deaths/0.0531%
Unvaxxed 50+: 8,551 cases/590 deaths/6.899%
Fully Vaxxed: 157,400 cases/1,613 deaths/1.025%
Fully Vaxxed <50: 85,407cases/48 deaths/0.0562%
Fully Vaxxed 50+: 71,991 cases/1,565 deaths/2.174%
58,003 Unlinked Infections
120,812 Partially Vaxxed Infections
157,400 Fully Vaxxed Infections
257,357 Unvaxxed Infections
Partially/Fully Vaxxed infections have surpassed Unvaxxed infections.
1.6 times more infections in Unvaxxed versus Fully Vaxxed.
(1.9 times more infections in Unvaxxed versus Fully Vaxxed as of August 29)
(2.5 times more infections in Unvaxxed versus Fully Vaxxed as of August 15)
(3.2 times more infections in Unvaxxed versus Fully Vaxxed as of August 8)
~63.5% of deaths were in fully vaxxed.
~67.0% of deaths were in fully vaxxed 50+.
~70% of deaths were in fully/partially vaxxed.
891 more deaths of fully vaxxed than unvaxxed.
975 more deaths of fully vaxxed than unvaxxed in 50+ cohort.
1,057 more deaths of fully/partially vaxxed than unvaxxed.
1,124 more deaths of fully/partially vaxxed than unvaxxed in 50+ cohort.
We don’t have the prior health status of those who died in any of the cohorts.
We don’t know the breakdown of “vaccines” taken by the vaxxed.
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1018547/Technical_Briefing_23_21_09_16.pdf
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1014926/Technical_Briefing_22_21_09_02.pdf
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1012401/Technical_Briefing_21.pdf
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1009243/Technical_Briefing_20.pdf
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1001358/Variants_of_Concern_VOC_Technical_Briefing_18.pdf
This whole issue of variants is just more gaslighting. The genetic differences among these so-called variants is minuscule. It is so small has to be Insignificant. Anybody who has had natural Covid and recovered will have durable long lasting protection to all the variants.
The whole discussion about variants Is just more fear mongering propaganda
This makes sense..Issue is that nobody worries about veracity and logic anymore. The truth is just too tedious. Find a news article that fits your point of view and wave the accompanying chart in people's faces. This is what guides public health policy these days.
So I am a simpleton - I know. But how is 76% of the deaths in the vaccinated evidence that the vaccines are preventing death? I would have expected that the vaccinated would represent less than 50 % of the deaths if the vaccines were strongly protective?
Excellent analysis as always. Something I don't quite understand about the "vaccinated superspread hypothesis,” is why would it drive up CFR? It certainly would increase the total case count, and it would in theory promote hotter variants, but delta isn't that. Is the idea that higher viral loads in the vaccinated is resulting not only in higher contagion, but also in more symptomatic disease for the people they spread to? Is there precedent for that?
If vaccines where driving down the CFR, wouldn’t we see a substantial difference in CFR vax vs unvax? Clearly not the case, except in the US, where everyone that is hospitalized or dying of covid are unvaxxed and using their dying words to promote the vaccine. (Insert eye roll)
How does the difference in CFR vs IFR affect this argument? You only have a case if someone gets tested. You could have a whole host of people, vaccinated and not, not getting tested. Of course, IFR is almost impossible to know with any certainty it would seem.
I was always under the impression that the increased transmissibility of Delta with lower fatality rate was an example of that classic example of viral mutations selecting for less severity in order to maximize chances of retaining available hosts. I recently read somewhere (I think an article by a Hawaiian physician) that this is actually a "myth"? I had never heard that before.
But in any case I don't know how you could look at the vaccination curve alongside Delta and conclude vaccines get credit for the (thankfully) still-lower CFR.
Moreover, what about India? Still abysmally (or blessedly) low rate of full vaccination and Delta seems not to be hitting them particularly hard past that first wave.
Well, I have a basic question. What is CFR?
But why is delta CFR rising? Your hypothesis about vaccinated super spread makes sense, but that doesn’t affect CFR. Do high viral loads spread super disease? Is there a new variant that hasn’t been identified yet? I can’t see any other possibilities that would cause CFR to go up in both vaccinated and unvaccinated.
Excellent work, as always. I'd like to find a way to calculate the protection your work provides against the malfeasance of the Covidians. I think it would be higher than VE against COVID.
I have a question, however. The Delta CFR is, of course, a critical premise of your argument. Do you have a sense of how accurate that number is? I assume it's not based on 100% sequencing of samples, but on some selection criteria for samples to sequence and model assumptions for calculating the overall Delta CFR. Is that correct? Do you think it's reliable?