Is all-cause mortality up or down compared with this time last year?
How about compared with usual summer into autumn phase so far?
I ask because I don’t trust PCR mass testing further than I can inspect it (& no one is inspecting the sites of the most important diagnostic test ever run in U.K.).
Yet the entire data series rests on PCR correctly finding cases AND on it being operated the same way as earlier periods. I suspect the perpetrators are more than capable of manipulating the test to drive whatever narrative they desire.
So let’s also look at ACM/weekly so as to be quite sure when we’re being fooled.
Last autumn, there was a claim that there was a second way including in London.
Hundreds of covid19 deaths etc
Yet the London ACM stayed flat all through that period. This is proof they were simply misattributing covid19 deaths. There aren’t many reasons why that would happen.
Having got “form”, expect them to do not t again.
Additional & very important question. 21 months into this “pandemic” of s “highly contagious respiratory virus”, does ANYONE really believe that more that a tiny fraction of the population hasn’t been exposed to this virus?
I agree with you Mike. There is no way that there are people in the US that have not had exposure. Many people can be exposed and not display symptoms. Many people are experiencing a cold or virus symptoms that do not match exactly to the standard list of covid symptoms. - those people, blowing their noses, tossing their kleenex, including many that have been vaccinated. This whole pandemic is just a very interesting circus of hysteria.
Well, it worked for the left, their one and only goal was to throw Trump out of the WH and continues to be to divide and deride citizens.
Not exactly. Big Pharma's goal is universal vaxes & boosters forever. Gates/Soros & unknown others' goal is that plus global depopulation. Gates/Schwab/others goal is NWO/BBB/Great Reset/One World Government complete with rfid chipped population tracked, monitored & controlled like the sheep they believe us to be.
Saw a vid sone time back, shortly after the magnet vids went viral, of young people scanning their arms with Walmart scanner...& getting readings.
I also actually saw a tweet from WEF account last year that said given the overwhelming evidence of anti-aging properties in young blood, it's time to revisit the stigma against harvesting our children's blood.
The tweet didn't last long, so can't link to it. Don't know if it was a slip up or trial ballon.
I imagine they're in a hard spot. You could be a wild covidian where if they're not masking, vaxxing, and social distancing with little plastic barriers around the desk, you are going to freak out.
This is war. They are openly boasting of their lies and jabbing skunks in zoos to mock. Can anyone help a prole understand what it will take for the educated to fight back?
Right, that's why it seems that the only reasonable way is to look at all cause mortality.
That's the only number that can't be manipulated (but can have time delay when they are
recording data). Everything else is subject to manipulation (what is definition of COVID death,with COVID or due to COVID, what is a positive case, etc.).
I also clearly remember that in April/May 2020, lots of people were speculating
that many more people were infected than official data was showing. Many countries
did seroprevalence tests in May 2020. For example, Spain found about 5%
This was a year ago. And during the times when "experts" were speculating that we are
ah so close to herd immunity (estimated at the time around 20%).
So, if we look at official data (infections via PCR test -- which is tricky business as you point out) now, many countries have had 10% of population infected (US about 13.7%
and the UK about 12.3%). So, maybe the real number of infections is not so tiny and
Dr. Yeadon, thank you for raising the matter of PCR testing accuracy and for questioning the wisdom of citing them in current analyses. It seems that every longtime critic of the usefulness of the PCR test has abandoned their skepticism of late.
If this hypothesis is true, the vaccinated are a risk to the unvaccinated, because they are vectors for selecting more dangerous strains of SARS-COV-2. As someone who is unvaccinated, I am growing increasingly concerned. Hopefully natural immunity remains robust to these new variants.
I’m confident it will because naturally acquired immunity is to all proteins in the virus. The repertoire is so rich that these minuscule changes in the virus have no chance of immune escape.
If by amazingly bad luck, immunity was bypassed in one individual, it wouldn’t be a population problem, but as individual problem. We each have our immune repertoire & while there’s overlap they are different.
I think natural immunity will remain robust because the infected immune system will see the entire disease not just the S1 protein. You know. Real science.
Exactly. The pseudo-vaccinated, if anything, will only make the virus weaker against (innate and memory) cellular immunity by over-rewarding spike evasion. And that's only if there's widespread boosting to keep antibodies up. UK and US boosting is still not very widespread.
The wrench in that natural balance is that the vaccinated create artificial variations in the population-wide level of "fuel" available for the virus to burn, so they can keep adding fuel and prolong the waves, as seems to be happening in the UK. However, as noted in my Friday post, the southern US magically escaped this fate, so maybe that's not really at play at all.
In natural conditions "lack of a wave" should be accompanied by a slow drift to higher population-wide potency and "wave" should be accompanied by a rapid reversal to not-potency. "Seasonality" is plausibly just the synchronization of that continual drift with exogenous changes to potency, i.e. weather and behavior, etc.
I’m unjabbed in Texas with two children in 7th & 9th grade. We never stopped living our lives and never wear masks. Both children missed zero school last year due to covid or contact tracing. This yr, masks are not required nor is quarantining if near an positive case. We have been face to face with the virus and so far, no real symptoms. We are healthy, eat right and take vitamins. I do have a medical accommodation from my global employer. We need to keep fighting and pushing back. More vaccines are not better, it’s not linear. Once the US starts mandating the boosters for all, I’m scared of what the increase in the AEs will look like.
Hi. As someone who had covid, I must say I am damn glad I had it. As Dr Yeadon said, natural immunity is so multifaceted that the virus has no chance to escape it.
Please work on your health if you aren't already, meaning exercise, lose weight, suntan if you can, take Vitamin D and eat well, etc.
As if removing a positive-tested player even meaningfully reduces exposure for anyone in the stadium! It's like trying to make a picnic ant-free by screening people who have an ant in their house. How can so many people tolerate such stupid rules.
True. Just had an example today. My nephew got the vax to protect girlfriend with MS. Second dose on 8/28/21 and now he has covid with moderate symptoms. His gesture was pointless.
Interesting - That's really fast for a symptomatic "breakthrough." Hope he's open to Math+ and doesn't let the hospital take over with their remdeathivir protocol.
Fortunately, only fatigue/loss of sense of taste & smell. Seems to be recovering now. Yes, shockingly fast for infection after only two to three weeks of “full vaccination”.
when they asked bill belichek about letting cam newton go bc he would not vaxx, bill said he did not see a 'difference between vax and non vax' in positive covid tests inthe locker room, but bill don't get quoted much bc he is short on big words.
El gato…I think Justin Hart has eluded to the vaccinated data not being as trust worthy. They are not nearly testing and testing the vaccinated like the unvaccinated and prior to vaccines thus leading to bad data which could explain some of these data confounds
Seasonality plays a huge role for sure. Within Europe I would be surprised if there's much variant variance. There's been a lot of summer vacation travel within Europe starting last May, so I would expect that variance would be reasonably low.
Also, EU had a rather late start with vaccination. While UK, US and Israel vaccinated
lots of people by mid-April, Europe was just getting started. So, there's 4-5 month lag
in terms of vaccine efficacy and Europe's summer weather and late vaccination is giving
I think the issue is a bad "Unvaccinated" denominator. It spent way too much time in the last two weeks trying to work this out. I wrote my thoughts down just because I couldn't post chart images in the comments here.
TL;DR Only 10-15% of the "Unvaccinated" group actually have no immunity.
The Case Rate still rises - I think that is either fading immunity or an increasingly evasive virus - but the relative rates look very different if you properly remove the Prior Infected from the "Unvaccinated" denominator.
Good point.. Do you think that there is something within the Astra Zeneca that could be weakening the immune system of recipients (more so than the others)?
Maybe, maybe not. AZ is unique in not using a "stabilized" spike protein (one edited not to become un-capped after cells produce it) and resembles Janssen (J&J) in screwing up the "signal" by throwing in chimp adenovirus proteins. Since there's no real-world proof that stabilizing worked in any of the other vaccines, and there's no region that represents a "Janssen wave" there's no easy comparison to be made between AZ and the other platforms without throwing a billion assumptions of relative exposure rates around.
For a sign the UK (and therefor AZ) might not actually be unique, see the rates in the Northeastern US, especially New York. These places all had spring waves, and no summer waves. Now it looks like their "autumn waves" might be starting to plateau.
Not necessarily. It's just that Pfizer vaccine has been studied much more extensively in terms of waning protection with most of the data coming out from Israel.
Another factor is the time between two vaccine doses. Some countries were following trial protocol strictly (ie, second dose 3 weeks after the first one for Pfizer). But in many places other places the gap between two doses was much longer (because the vaccines were not readily available so they were "stretching" them out by vaccinating everybody with the first dose first).
I don't think these things have been well studied.
Could this rising CFR also partly be due to people having a 'lazier' immune system because of lockdowns and stuff?
I recently read stories (anecdotal therefore) of young people with no obvious health problems that died from covid that had been "super careful" since the start of the pandemic. Also some from permanent lockdown camp Australia.
It's only a matter of time before kids have to pay off the general immune debt they're building up. Besides which, who knows if the youngest will all just have "universal ADE" to all the viruses they are being pointlessly artificially immunized from, since in normal life those viruses are still encountered in early childhood.
This is an incredible article and I am so glad that I subscribed to your substack. This can partially explain the "UK Vaccine Hell" that I wrote about, with infection rates among the vaccinated over TWICE the rates in unvaccinated (!!!!).
This can also partly explain rapid drop in "protection from death" based on excellent UK PHE data.
See my article and refer to group 40-49 year olds:
new variants may not be an issue for natural immune who have been exposed to the entire virus, not merely a mock up of the spike protein..... that is why natural immunes are protected cross corona viruses.
begs that "they" not make any new c19 vaxxes, and get ivermectin and hcq abundant in the pharmacies.
Indeed, from what I've read it appears to be a very nasty f-up-any-RNA-in-the-vicinity drug, also interestingly used for the treatment of venezuelan equine encephalitis. But at least it's not horse dewormer, right?
Somehow, seeing them inject skunks is even more distressing than seeing them do it to humans. At least humans (most of us, for the present, anyway) still have the illusion of free choice, even if it requires us to sacrifice everything else in our lives.
For me, it's the sheer stupidity of recognizing that there is such a thing as an animal reservoir and still going ahead with their useless jabbing of a few animals as if it means something. Might just as well try to fix global warming by dumping ice cubes into the Atlantic ocean.
His synopsis: The link above is to a 14 minute presentation I gave on Oct 7th to the British Medical Journals’ excellent '#CovidUnknowns' webinar series. This edition of the series was about the origins of Covid-19. The talk is focussed on an aspect of our Mojiang Miners Passage theory that many people have found the most difficult to accept. This is the idea that one or more bat coronaviruses evolved inside the body of one hospitalised miner into SARS-CoV-2 (or a very similar virus). Our theory requires that perhaps many hundreds of mutations (and by implication several decades of virus evolution) could have occurred in 6 months inside one body. To many, this seems far-fetched. Yet, in this talk, I point out how a number of recent studies have found that viruses within single individuals who have compromised immune systems and long term infections (and therefore are very much like the miners) can undergo startling evolutionary leaps. The classic example is the B.1.1.7 variant that arose in the UK in Sept 2020. B.1.1.7., which went on to dominate the pandemic there and elsewhere, is now thought to have entirely arisen inside just one person. B.1.1.7 carries 23 unique mutations not present in the general population. Thus, at a stroke, a virus in a single person is believed to have evolved far further than had any of the viruses comprising the entire rest of the UK pandemic, which featured millions of infections. At first glance, this seems highly unlikely. But, as I explain in the talk, the hyperevolution that led to B.1.1.7 can be readily accounted for by the unique internal dynamics of virus evolution in long term covid infections. Thus the mechanism behind the rise of the novel variants, which are now driving the pandemic itself, validates a key and controversial aspect of the Mojiang Miner Passage theory.
When you say that the unvaccinated are in trouble for the variants, what about the ones who have had covid? I realize that you have no way of distinguishing how many of these there are, but presumably prior infection should confer some protection and then skew the numbers? An unvaxed person with no prior infection must be hugely at risk then? I had better go out and try to get sick now to beat the rush?
A more lethal sub variant could indeed be very dangerous to the unvaccinated and to those whose vaccine-induced antibodies have waned to no effect. Many are reluctant to take boosters due to side effects the first go round.
Well as an average Joe, barely able to comprehend much of this, it seems like they have screwed the pooch, and we are faced with vaccination or death. I guess I could rush out with my family of 4 and get us all infected, to get a fighting chance (so far uninfected)... I kid of course. But seriously this seems very bleak for those of us not wanting the vaccine for a plethora of reasons. It looks like it's a requirement for living, like food and water; or at least it will be.
Don't get the vaccine. Treatments will still work, and have near-zero mortality. Prior natural immunity will still protect, should greatly reduce death rates.
Why aren't flu vaccines leaky and having the same potential issues as we're seeing with covid?
Also, I'd not caution when looking at UK data - the number of tests reported include LFT taken at home as well as PCR.
It's only this year that we've been asked by govt to test (and report) twice a week when we don't have symptoms with a LFT, so comparing year-on-year, unless you're only looking at data form PCR tests only won't be comparable.
For one thing, coronaviruses are known to mutate heavily, which is why they've never been able to create a traditional vaccine for them.
Flu viruses are comparatively stable and their vaxes are traditional, ie, use actual virus (inactivated), so all different types of viral proteins (potentially thousands of them) can stimulate antibodies. If one protein mutates there are still plenty of antibodies that will be effective against the other proteins .
These new faux vaccines inject artificial rna or dna to instruct cell ribosomes to quit their day jobs & instead synthesize a toxic spike of 4-5 proteins (which happen to closely resemble normal human proteins) for an unknown period of time. The mutation-prone coronavirus needs only a small mutation or 2 to outmaneuver the faux-faxes few antibodies.
Additionally, Fauci spokestwinkie claims they modified the spike so it can't "do all those things" that the Salk Institute proved it does, the primary thing being binding to ACE 2 receptors.
If true, than the antibodies that the modified spike stimulates will be a poor fit for the real spikes.
Is all-cause mortality up or down compared with this time last year?
How about compared with usual summer into autumn phase so far?
I ask because I don’t trust PCR mass testing further than I can inspect it (& no one is inspecting the sites of the most important diagnostic test ever run in U.K.).
Yet the entire data series rests on PCR correctly finding cases AND on it being operated the same way as earlier periods. I suspect the perpetrators are more than capable of manipulating the test to drive whatever narrative they desire.
So let’s also look at ACM/weekly so as to be quite sure when we’re being fooled.
Last autumn, there was a claim that there was a second way including in London.
Hundreds of covid19 deaths etc
Yet the London ACM stayed flat all through that period. This is proof they were simply misattributing covid19 deaths. There aren’t many reasons why that would happen.
Having got “form”, expect them to do not t again.
Additional & very important question. 21 months into this “pandemic” of s “highly contagious respiratory virus”, does ANYONE really believe that more that a tiny fraction of the population hasn’t been exposed to this virus?
I don’t.
all cause mortality significantly higher than in UK this time last year.
and ACM looks similar to rises in CFR as well in recent months.
(though this is short to draw too much from)
but this looks like real signal, not testdemic.
https://cdn.substack.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F69aa1da5-e8bc-4a90-9482-e4391804cef4_866x509.png
Thank you, I will peruse.
If the vaccines killed 1:2000 recipients I wonder how much of the ACM hike over last year might be accounted for?
My thoughts, precisely 🤔
I agree with you Mike. There is no way that there are people in the US that have not had exposure. Many people can be exposed and not display symptoms. Many people are experiencing a cold or virus symptoms that do not match exactly to the standard list of covid symptoms. - those people, blowing their noses, tossing their kleenex, including many that have been vaccinated. This whole pandemic is just a very interesting circus of hysteria.
Well, it worked for the left, their one and only goal was to throw Trump out of the WH and continues to be to divide and deride citizens.
I don’t think that was their only goal at all, though that certainly became one of them. There seems many motivations for this
Not exactly. Big Pharma's goal is universal vaxes & boosters forever. Gates/Soros & unknown others' goal is that plus global depopulation. Gates/Schwab/others goal is NWO/BBB/Great Reset/One World Government complete with rfid chipped population tracked, monitored & controlled like the sheep they believe us to be.
Saw a vid sone time back, shortly after the magnet vids went viral, of young people scanning their arms with Walmart scanner...& getting readings.
I also actually saw a tweet from WEF account last year that said given the overwhelming evidence of anti-aging properties in young blood, it's time to revisit the stigma against harvesting our children's blood.
The tweet didn't last long, so can't link to it. Don't know if it was a slip up or trial ballon.
I imagine they're in a hard spot. You could be a wild covidian where if they're not masking, vaxxing, and social distancing with little plastic barriers around the desk, you are going to freak out.
i saw post last week, acm is up in germany post mass vax, idk or recall the specifics.
deaths in usa summer peak was higher in 2021 than 2020 time frame, the main difference no one blamed biden like cnn did trump for each death.
secondary attack rate of c19 is not worrisome, i suspect there are too many high risk not yet exposed.
why lock downs and distancing are worse for the long term survival.
I read about Germany too. I believe all cause death was up 10% there.
I can confirm this.
This is war. They are openly boasting of their lies and jabbing skunks in zoos to mock. Can anyone help a prole understand what it will take for the educated to fight back?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-0d3Y_DRmWE
That's very easy. Do you have an "undo globalization and secularization" button nearby?
Tell the truth, don't go along with the lies.
https://academyofideas.com/2021/09/the-big-lie-how-to-enslave-the-world/
Which shot are the zoo animals getting I wonder?
Right, that's why it seems that the only reasonable way is to look at all cause mortality.
That's the only number that can't be manipulated (but can have time delay when they are
recording data). Everything else is subject to manipulation (what is definition of COVID death,with COVID or due to COVID, what is a positive case, etc.).
I also clearly remember that in April/May 2020, lots of people were speculating
that many more people were infected than official data was showing. Many countries
did seroprevalence tests in May 2020. For example, Spain found about 5%
(source: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31483-5/fulltext).
But a similar Spanish study (April-June 2020) showed 10% seroprevalence among health care workers (source: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33434269/)
And a metastudy of seroprevalence (from Jan to Aug 2020) that
"The estimated number of infections, however, were much greater than the number of reported cases and deaths in almost all locations."
(source: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0248946)
This was a year ago. And during the times when "experts" were speculating that we are
ah so close to herd immunity (estimated at the time around 20%).
So, if we look at official data (infections via PCR test -- which is tricky business as you point out) now, many countries have had 10% of population infected (US about 13.7%
and the UK about 12.3%). So, maybe the real number of infections is not so tiny and
may be 1.5X-2X of the official count, so 15%-20%?
Dr. Yeadon, thank you for raising the matter of PCR testing accuracy and for questioning the wisdom of citing them in current analyses. It seems that every longtime critic of the usefulness of the PCR test has abandoned their skepticism of late.
If this hypothesis is true, the vaccinated are a risk to the unvaccinated, because they are vectors for selecting more dangerous strains of SARS-COV-2. As someone who is unvaccinated, I am growing increasingly concerned. Hopefully natural immunity remains robust to these new variants.
I’m confident it will because naturally acquired immunity is to all proteins in the virus. The repertoire is so rich that these minuscule changes in the virus have no chance of immune escape.
If by amazingly bad luck, immunity was bypassed in one individual, it wouldn’t be a population problem, but as individual problem. We each have our immune repertoire & while there’s overlap they are different.
I think natural immunity will remain robust because the infected immune system will see the entire disease not just the S1 protein. You know. Real science.
Exactly. The pseudo-vaccinated, if anything, will only make the virus weaker against (innate and memory) cellular immunity by over-rewarding spike evasion. And that's only if there's widespread boosting to keep antibodies up. UK and US boosting is still not very widespread.
It would seem though as more become infected the numbers should going down at some point. A sort of equilibrium?
The wrench in that natural balance is that the vaccinated create artificial variations in the population-wide level of "fuel" available for the virus to burn, so they can keep adding fuel and prolong the waves, as seems to be happening in the UK. However, as noted in my Friday post, the southern US magically escaped this fate, so maybe that's not really at play at all.
In natural conditions "lack of a wave" should be accompanied by a slow drift to higher population-wide potency and "wave" should be accompanied by a rapid reversal to not-potency. "Seasonality" is plausibly just the synchronization of that continual drift with exogenous changes to potency, i.e. weather and behavior, etc.
I think it will too.
In which case "the world where we leaky-vaxxed ourselves into a second pandemic" won't happen. Phew.
I’m unjabbed in Texas with two children in 7th & 9th grade. We never stopped living our lives and never wear masks. Both children missed zero school last year due to covid or contact tracing. This yr, masks are not required nor is quarantining if near an positive case. We have been face to face with the virus and so far, no real symptoms. We are healthy, eat right and take vitamins. I do have a medical accommodation from my global employer. We need to keep fighting and pushing back. More vaccines are not better, it’s not linear. Once the US starts mandating the boosters for all, I’m scared of what the increase in the AEs will look like.
Where in Texas? A fair amount of people might want to move there.
North Texas, and they are already coming, unfortunately
Hi. As someone who had covid, I must say I am damn glad I had it. As Dr Yeadon said, natural immunity is so multifaceted that the virus has no chance to escape it.
Please work on your health if you aren't already, meaning exercise, lose weight, suntan if you can, take Vitamin D and eat well, etc.
But seriously...
WHERE DO YOU GET ALL THESE FANTASTIC CAT IMAGES? Do you make them yourself?
allow a feline some mystery...
purrfect
I was just wondering the same thing. Bad Cat is a cat of many talents…
I want an answer to this question too! :))
Can we stop referring to these “vaccines” as vaccines and call them what they really are, therapeutics?
My favorite thing about watching football this week is how casually the announcers say that somebody is out because they are positive for covid.
Shouldn't we be talking about how all these vaccinated people are still testing positive? This isn't how vaccines were sold to the people.
As if removing a positive-tested player even meaningfully reduces exposure for anyone in the stadium! It's like trying to make a picnic ant-free by screening people who have an ant in their house. How can so many people tolerate such stupid rules.
see the filled stadiums!1
that is a wonderful analogy
True. Just had an example today. My nephew got the vax to protect girlfriend with MS. Second dose on 8/28/21 and now he has covid with moderate symptoms. His gesture was pointless.
Interesting - That's really fast for a symptomatic "breakthrough." Hope he's open to Math+ and doesn't let the hospital take over with their remdeathivir protocol.
I’ve heard nursing staff call it “Run, death is near”.
it's tidbits like that
Fortunately, only fatigue/loss of sense of taste & smell. Seems to be recovering now. Yes, shockingly fast for infection after only two to three weeks of “full vaccination”.
remdeathvir!!
when they asked bill belichek about letting cam newton go bc he would not vaxx, bill said he did not see a 'difference between vax and non vax' in positive covid tests inthe locker room, but bill don't get quoted much bc he is short on big words.
funny quote heard on local sport radio,
Refer to them as "rat poison for people"
You mean... "poison"?
I prefer Dr. Zelenko’s “poison death jab.”
El gato…I think Justin Hart has eluded to the vaccinated data not being as trust worthy. They are not nearly testing and testing the vaccinated like the unvaccinated and prior to vaccines thus leading to bad data which could explain some of these data confounds
I am still puzzled by the hypothesis of the rising CFR.
If the virus getting more virulent, shouldn't we be seeing the increase
in CFR in all countries and not just one or two?
Most of the Europe is heavily vaccinated (much more than the UK which is by
now in the middle of the pack). The biggest difference between the UK and rest of
the Europe is that the UK was vaccinating mainly with Astra Zeneca and was 3-4 months
ahead of rest of the Europe.
Scandinavians stopped being concerned and they downgraded COVID severity to
public health to the level of flu. What do they know?
we're seeing it all over the US and in many parts of europe.
seemingly israel too.
not sure on scandinavia apart from their still being out of season.
there's so much seasonality here (and variant variance) that comparing and 2 places gets tricky at any given point in time.
but most places look worse that they themselves did a year ago this time.
Seasonality plays a huge role for sure. Within Europe I would be surprised if there's much variant variance. There's been a lot of summer vacation travel within Europe starting last May, so I would expect that variance would be reasonably low.
Also, EU had a rather late start with vaccination. While UK, US and Israel vaccinated
lots of people by mid-April, Europe was just getting started. So, there's 4-5 month lag
in terms of vaccine efficacy and Europe's summer weather and late vaccination is giving
seemingly better picture at the moment.
I think the issue is a bad "Unvaccinated" denominator. It spent way too much time in the last two weeks trying to work this out. I wrote my thoughts down just because I couldn't post chart images in the comments here.
https://justguy.substack.com/p/what-does-unvaccinated-mean
TL;DR Only 10-15% of the "Unvaccinated" group actually have no immunity.
The Case Rate still rises - I think that is either fading immunity or an increasingly evasive virus - but the relative rates look very different if you properly remove the Prior Infected from the "Unvaccinated" denominator.
yes but.. just for the hell of it, you are good with hypothesis. what id seasons pass and these people fully vaxxed show no such problems. why?
Good point.. Do you think that there is something within the Astra Zeneca that could be weakening the immune system of recipients (more so than the others)?
Maybe, maybe not. AZ is unique in not using a "stabilized" spike protein (one edited not to become un-capped after cells produce it) and resembles Janssen (J&J) in screwing up the "signal" by throwing in chimp adenovirus proteins. Since there's no real-world proof that stabilizing worked in any of the other vaccines, and there's no region that represents a "Janssen wave" there's no easy comparison to be made between AZ and the other platforms without throwing a billion assumptions of relative exposure rates around.
For a sign the UK (and therefor AZ) might not actually be unique, see the rates in the Northeastern US, especially New York. These places all had spring waves, and no summer waves. Now it looks like their "autumn waves" might be starting to plateau.
Not necessarily. It's just that Pfizer vaccine has been studied much more extensively in terms of waning protection with most of the data coming out from Israel.
Another factor is the time between two vaccine doses. Some countries were following trial protocol strictly (ie, second dose 3 weeks after the first one for Pfizer). But in many places other places the gap between two doses was much longer (because the vaccines were not readily available so they were "stretching" them out by vaccinating everybody with the first dose first).
I don't think these things have been well studied.
Could this rising CFR also partly be due to people having a 'lazier' immune system because of lockdowns and stuff?
I recently read stories (anecdotal therefore) of young people with no obvious health problems that died from covid that had been "super careful" since the start of the pandemic. Also some from permanent lockdown camp Australia.
It's only a matter of time before kids have to pay off the general immune debt they're building up. Besides which, who knows if the youngest will all just have "universal ADE" to all the viruses they are being pointlessly artificially immunized from, since in normal life those viruses are still encountered in early childhood.
This is an incredible article and I am so glad that I subscribed to your substack. This can partially explain the "UK Vaccine Hell" that I wrote about, with infection rates among the vaccinated over TWICE the rates in unvaccinated (!!!!).
This can also partly explain rapid drop in "protection from death" based on excellent UK PHE data.
See my article and refer to group 40-49 year olds:
https://igorchudov.substack.com/p/uks-vaccine-hell-gets-worse-every
new variants may not be an issue for natural immune who have been exposed to the entire virus, not merely a mock up of the spike protein..... that is why natural immunes are protected cross corona viruses.
begs that "they" not make any new c19 vaxxes, and get ivermectin and hcq abundant in the pharmacies.
I believe that is why Merck is working vigorously to rename a few old antivirals and bust them out on the market.
Molnupiravir is not a renamed old antiviral. It's far more dangerous.
Indeed, from what I've read it appears to be a very nasty f-up-any-RNA-in-the-vicinity drug, also interestingly used for the treatment of venezuelan equine encephalitis. But at least it's not horse dewormer, right?
Shouldn't be in use for any virus. Probably shouldn't even be legal to manufacture. But yes, at least it won't be coming near my precious horse worms.
I agree, it seems to be a planet-ending virus mutation drug from hell.
"none of us want to be living in the world where we leaky-vaxxed ourselves into a second pandemic"
You might want to reconsider thinking in absolutes when talking of homo sapiens...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kh9982FTkxY
So maybe we can return the favor to the "horse dewormer" people and start talking about how the obedient masses are lining up to take a skunk vaccine.
Exactly. They are maniacal and need to be Monty Pythoned into submission then placed in cages for public humiliation.
Somehow, seeing them inject skunks is even more distressing than seeing them do it to humans. At least humans (most of us, for the present, anyway) still have the illusion of free choice, even if it requires us to sacrifice everything else in our lives.
For me, it's the sheer stupidity of recognizing that there is such a thing as an animal reservoir and still going ahead with their useless jabbing of a few animals as if it means something. Might just as well try to fix global warming by dumping ice cubes into the Atlantic ocean.
Interesting info about how variants emerge. It just takes a single individual who has a compromised immune systems and long term infection!
https://youtu.be/jIalaQcEUkw
His synopsis: The link above is to a 14 minute presentation I gave on Oct 7th to the British Medical Journals’ excellent '#CovidUnknowns' webinar series. This edition of the series was about the origins of Covid-19. The talk is focussed on an aspect of our Mojiang Miners Passage theory that many people have found the most difficult to accept. This is the idea that one or more bat coronaviruses evolved inside the body of one hospitalised miner into SARS-CoV-2 (or a very similar virus). Our theory requires that perhaps many hundreds of mutations (and by implication several decades of virus evolution) could have occurred in 6 months inside one body. To many, this seems far-fetched. Yet, in this talk, I point out how a number of recent studies have found that viruses within single individuals who have compromised immune systems and long term infections (and therefore are very much like the miners) can undergo startling evolutionary leaps. The classic example is the B.1.1.7 variant that arose in the UK in Sept 2020. B.1.1.7., which went on to dominate the pandemic there and elsewhere, is now thought to have entirely arisen inside just one person. B.1.1.7 carries 23 unique mutations not present in the general population. Thus, at a stroke, a virus in a single person is believed to have evolved far further than had any of the viruses comprising the entire rest of the UK pandemic, which featured millions of infections. At first glance, this seems highly unlikely. But, as I explain in the talk, the hyperevolution that led to B.1.1.7 can be readily accounted for by the unique internal dynamics of virus evolution in long term covid infections. Thus the mechanism behind the rise of the novel variants, which are now driving the pandemic itself, validates a key and controversial aspect of the Mojiang Miner Passage theory.
When you say that the unvaccinated are in trouble for the variants, what about the ones who have had covid? I realize that you have no way of distinguishing how many of these there are, but presumably prior infection should confer some protection and then skew the numbers? An unvaxed person with no prior infection must be hugely at risk then? I had better go out and try to get sick now to beat the rush?
They mean unvaxxed who haven't had the virus. Those who have had it & recovered will be protected from variants. Vaxxed & Immune naive won't be.
I'm hoping for an at home antibody test that gives me results without depending on a lab. Don't want to end up on a database!
A more lethal sub variant could indeed be very dangerous to the unvaccinated and to those whose vaccine-induced antibodies have waned to no effect. Many are reluctant to take boosters due to side effects the first go round.
Well as an average Joe, barely able to comprehend much of this, it seems like they have screwed the pooch, and we are faced with vaccination or death. I guess I could rush out with my family of 4 and get us all infected, to get a fighting chance (so far uninfected)... I kid of course. But seriously this seems very bleak for those of us not wanting the vaccine for a plethora of reasons. It looks like it's a requirement for living, like food and water; or at least it will be.
Don't get the vaccine. Treatments will still work, and have near-zero mortality. Prior natural immunity will still protect, should greatly reduce death rates.
Agreed.
Not sure where he got the 8% figure. This is latest report that includes data on a new player...AY.4.2.
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1025827/Technical_Briefing_25.pdf
Why aren't flu vaccines leaky and having the same potential issues as we're seeing with covid?
Also, I'd not caution when looking at UK data - the number of tests reported include LFT taken at home as well as PCR.
It's only this year that we've been asked by govt to test (and report) twice a week when we don't have symptoms with a LFT, so comparing year-on-year, unless you're only looking at data form PCR tests only won't be comparable.
"Why aren't flu vaccines leaky"
Maybe because they do nothing at all?
For one thing, coronaviruses are known to mutate heavily, which is why they've never been able to create a traditional vaccine for them.
Flu viruses are comparatively stable and their vaxes are traditional, ie, use actual virus (inactivated), so all different types of viral proteins (potentially thousands of them) can stimulate antibodies. If one protein mutates there are still plenty of antibodies that will be effective against the other proteins .
These new faux vaccines inject artificial rna or dna to instruct cell ribosomes to quit their day jobs & instead synthesize a toxic spike of 4-5 proteins (which happen to closely resemble normal human proteins) for an unknown period of time. The mutation-prone coronavirus needs only a small mutation or 2 to outmaneuver the faux-faxes few antibodies.
Additionally, Fauci spokestwinkie claims they modified the spike so it can't "do all those things" that the Salk Institute proved it does, the primary thing being binding to ACE 2 receptors.
If true, than the antibodies that the modified spike stimulates will be a poor fit for the real spikes.