Discover more from bad cattitude
meanwhile, back in the northeast
covid hospitalizations among the old were surging out of season
i realize that things move pretty fast these days and that “out of season surges of covid hospitalization in the most highly vaxxed and boosted people in the US” is so “4 things ago” but this one has really been sticking with me as it seems to tie a lot of ends together around OAS, antigenic fixation, and the myths of severe disease suppression for current variants.
the trends in the northeast (apart from NH who is now rigging the definitions to avoid reporting apples to apples and will be omitted for that reason) look both out of season and increasingly worrying.
as our marker, i will continue to use the NYT data for “hospitalizations for covid” in the 70+ age group, a group that is 95% vaxxed there and heavily boosted as well.
this area continues to be about the only CONUS cases hotspot going (apart from what seems to be some border crossing issues in TX)
and it’s flowing into the hospitals. but it’s, for the most part, only affecting the old. and the pattern looks the same pretty much everywhere (and may be understated in recent days as this series can take time to fully update)
vermont is right at the highs from the january peak.
others are rising rapidly in a period that should be declining and all are up materially from a year ago.
as last year this time was dropping and this year is rising, expect this % variance to become more pronounced in coming weeks if this trend continues.
this looks nothing at all like herd immunity. this looks like the other thing…
two weeks ago, certain internet felines were heard to say:
well, the test keeps coming and so far, this looks like we’re seeing the signs of vaccine driven evolution driving covid to variants that are advantaged in the vaxxed and boosted and this is becoming an issue of severity on top of just spread.
this is, unfortunately, pretty much what was predicted here:
i keep hoping this is not going to be the awful set out outcomes that seem emergent and i could, of course, still be wrong, but in the battle of biology vs ideology, biology remains undefeated and the intersection of leaky vaccines and antigenic fixation is a very high risk place and that risk rises over time.
no one seems to want to talk about this trend just now, but i think it bears serious watching.
something untoward is going on in the northeast and if it keeps getting bigger at this rate, it’s going to pop back up on the radar soon.