But you’re ignoring the Gavin Newsom rule: When Covid numbers rise in Red states, it’s because the stupid rednecks are misbehaving. When they rise in Blue states, it must be seasonality.
Spain here. I expect the same pattern. This last summer was worst than the previous one, but it was better than the winter. People here are deeply in love with the vaccines, so the fact that the summer was better than the winter was understood as a confirmation that the jab is wonderful. People is also in love with the masks. I think they would marry the jab in first place but they would keep the mask as a lover. So, when the wave comes they will blame the unvaxxed and the unmasked. Impossible to make them think that if vaccine-summer was worst than non-vaccine-summer and the same happens in winter, perhaps the jab does not work. I do not, there is something in the jab that makes people’s brain inaccesible.
I studied past vaccine pandemics and vaccine performance. In nearly every case an external factor complicated health issues, the pandemic virus is simply an opportunist cleaning up the weak, the old and un-healthy. These factors include, starvation and nutrition deficiency, obesity, old age, and environmental poisoning. And yet, the Pasteur based germ-theory warriors fail to address these issues with a cult like drive to push whatever latest technology fix they have. (Great Post Borigato)
Very nice. What these graphs won't show is "Covid-like illness" which now seems to have a new acronym CLI. That seems to me a key wild card this winter. That and all the people in their 30s and 40s dropping dead of heart attacks.
Monsieur Bad Cat - I think at this point the covid death numbers are a poor indicator of what is actually happening and instead you need to look at all cause death of vaccinated verse unvaccinated. This is for two reasons - (1) - vaccinated people that die and have covid positive test are often categorized as not from covid, and (2) - vaccinated people can get another coronavirus and test negative and have the immunological reaction to that virus fail and perish. So, I think you at least need to consider including that data in your analysis if it is available. Thank you for your great work.
I have been pointing to the obvious seasonality for over a year now. I had hoped the vaccines would have a significant effect, and held that hope well into July as the Summer wave was displaced about 4-5 weeks later in the year across the Sunbelt states, but it was obvious by August 1st that the seasonality just arrived a month later in the US. What I see right now is that all the Sunbelt states still got the deep trough from the Summer wave, but that trough just arrived in the 2nd half of October rather than the 2nd half of September like it did last year. The northern half of the country, though, had a Summer wave that came late in the Summer, and they aren't really getting a trough for the most part- just plateau. Just in the last week, though, the cases are starting turn upward in pretty much every single state in the US, and in the states where it isn't turning up, they aren't declining very rapidly any longer or at all.
In Europe, I have been watching Germany and Poland. Poland troughed down to about 100-300 cases/day back in August, but started showing 10,000/day this week. Something similar happened in Germany, but their trough was a little higher.
In short, seasonality can't be denied any longer- the evidence is simply too great at this point. I still have some hope the vaccines will attenuate the CFRs, and the UK seems to indicate that is a valid hope, but even there deaths are starting to rise up through the 200-300/day range. If the UK is at 500/day by the end of the month, then it will indicate to me that the vaccines are nearly worthless given that we burned a lot of dry tinder last year which is going to skew the death rate to a lower side all by itself.
To state the obvious: The fact of covid seasonality demolishes the arguments for lockdowns. From the seasonality standpoint, people tend to stay inside when it is extremely hot (late summer in the Deep South) and in the extreme cold (winter in the North). Their voluntary behavior, thus, mimics lockdown mandates. (Maybe even more so than lockdowns because the shut ins are voluntary instead of compelled.) Covid always spikes when this behavior occurs.
Respiratory viruses tend to be seasonal, and this one doesn't seem to be the exception. But alas, The Party is ignoring this, as it would shatter all the witchcraft they have put us for almost 2 years.
And from DW: In Germany they are saying the vax rates aren't high enough, and are now thinking introducing restrictions for the unvaxxed. So if the jab didn't work, let's double down on it. Clever!
No wonder the saying "Humans are the only animals that trip over the same stone twice" (and I would add: more than twice!)
Even the trials suggested less than 1% absolute risk reduction, at the peak of the supposed effectiveness of those who tolerated 2 jabs. So … the vaccines were already known to be a bust as a public health measure to everyone who bothered to look but the fools and scoundrels. But … think if the all the new billionaires and profits for Moderna and Pfizer, guaranteed by insane government diktats the world round. Now that is what I call an effective vaccine program. So much many that a digital injection of money in this official or expert bank account or that one (off shore of course) is just a small cost of doing business. Big Bird is even on the take, for Christ's sake.
But you’re ignoring the Gavin Newsom rule: When Covid numbers rise in Red states, it’s because the stupid rednecks are misbehaving. When they rise in Blue states, it must be seasonality.
#takeyourvitaminD
Spain here. I expect the same pattern. This last summer was worst than the previous one, but it was better than the winter. People here are deeply in love with the vaccines, so the fact that the summer was better than the winter was understood as a confirmation that the jab is wonderful. People is also in love with the masks. I think they would marry the jab in first place but they would keep the mask as a lover. So, when the wave comes they will blame the unvaxxed and the unmasked. Impossible to make them think that if vaccine-summer was worst than non-vaccine-summer and the same happens in winter, perhaps the jab does not work. I do not, there is something in the jab that makes people’s brain inaccesible.
I studied past vaccine pandemics and vaccine performance. In nearly every case an external factor complicated health issues, the pandemic virus is simply an opportunist cleaning up the weak, the old and un-healthy. These factors include, starvation and nutrition deficiency, obesity, old age, and environmental poisoning. And yet, the Pasteur based germ-theory warriors fail to address these issues with a cult like drive to push whatever latest technology fix they have. (Great Post Borigato)
Very nice. What these graphs won't show is "Covid-like illness" which now seems to have a new acronym CLI. That seems to me a key wild card this winter. That and all the people in their 30s and 40s dropping dead of heart attacks.
Wait for them to blame it on "climate change".
I would love to get those heat maps and animate them in to a 2-year loop. The visualization would be amazing.
Monsieur Bad Cat - I think at this point the covid death numbers are a poor indicator of what is actually happening and instead you need to look at all cause death of vaccinated verse unvaccinated. This is for two reasons - (1) - vaccinated people that die and have covid positive test are often categorized as not from covid, and (2) - vaccinated people can get another coronavirus and test negative and have the immunological reaction to that virus fail and perish. So, I think you at least need to consider including that data in your analysis if it is available. Thank you for your great work.
I have been pointing to the obvious seasonality for over a year now. I had hoped the vaccines would have a significant effect, and held that hope well into July as the Summer wave was displaced about 4-5 weeks later in the year across the Sunbelt states, but it was obvious by August 1st that the seasonality just arrived a month later in the US. What I see right now is that all the Sunbelt states still got the deep trough from the Summer wave, but that trough just arrived in the 2nd half of October rather than the 2nd half of September like it did last year. The northern half of the country, though, had a Summer wave that came late in the Summer, and they aren't really getting a trough for the most part- just plateau. Just in the last week, though, the cases are starting turn upward in pretty much every single state in the US, and in the states where it isn't turning up, they aren't declining very rapidly any longer or at all.
In Europe, I have been watching Germany and Poland. Poland troughed down to about 100-300 cases/day back in August, but started showing 10,000/day this week. Something similar happened in Germany, but their trough was a little higher.
In short, seasonality can't be denied any longer- the evidence is simply too great at this point. I still have some hope the vaccines will attenuate the CFRs, and the UK seems to indicate that is a valid hope, but even there deaths are starting to rise up through the 200-300/day range. If the UK is at 500/day by the end of the month, then it will indicate to me that the vaccines are nearly worthless given that we burned a lot of dry tinder last year which is going to skew the death rate to a lower side all by itself.
To state the obvious: The fact of covid seasonality demolishes the arguments for lockdowns. From the seasonality standpoint, people tend to stay inside when it is extremely hot (late summer in the Deep South) and in the extreme cold (winter in the North). Their voluntary behavior, thus, mimics lockdown mandates. (Maybe even more so than lockdowns because the shut ins are voluntary instead of compelled.) Covid always spikes when this behavior occurs.
Seasonality continues to trump anything we do, and winter is coming.
https://simulationcommander.substack.com/p/seasonality-a-story-in-pictures
Winter is a social construct.
Respiratory viruses tend to be seasonal, and this one doesn't seem to be the exception. But alas, The Party is ignoring this, as it would shatter all the witchcraft they have put us for almost 2 years.
And from DW: In Germany they are saying the vax rates aren't high enough, and are now thinking introducing restrictions for the unvaxxed. So if the jab didn't work, let's double down on it. Clever!
No wonder the saying "Humans are the only animals that trip over the same stone twice" (and I would add: more than twice!)
P.S. Crap, the spammers found substack.
Even the trials suggested less than 1% absolute risk reduction, at the peak of the supposed effectiveness of those who tolerated 2 jabs. So … the vaccines were already known to be a bust as a public health measure to everyone who bothered to look but the fools and scoundrels. But … think if the all the new billionaires and profits for Moderna and Pfizer, guaranteed by insane government diktats the world round. Now that is what I call an effective vaccine program. So much many that a digital injection of money in this official or expert bank account or that one (off shore of course) is just a small cost of doing business. Big Bird is even on the take, for Christ's sake.
It's going to be blamed squarely on less of the population masking up. No need to look closer.
http://imgur.com/a/27INK6K
Keep blogging Gato. I think they are catching on. Even Topol.