john ionnidas, who has been one of the few top epidemiologists to have been not just right but vocal on covid all along, has just published a global IFR (infection fatality rate) estimate based on the up to date data. it’s 0.15%. that’s in line with a pretty typical flu (like 2017-18) and was generally less dangerous than influenza for children and those who were not obese or possessed of cardio/pulmonary complications.
the ludicrous and ineffective response here was swerving the car to miss a squirrel and running it into an oak tree.
lockdowns, masks, and closures saved us from nothing and cost us much. protecting the vulnerable would have worked better at 2% the cost.
instead of listening to this calm man of reason and science, we went on an insane, baseless joyride because guys like fauci sleep in their suits with TV ready hair and no one believed we could ever have been taken in so badly and/or allow such total frauds to hold positions running public health agencies.
well, now you know. never again guys. never again.
People need to understand, that in some places, the IFR will be higher. But it's mainly due to the bad health services quality and lack of health infrastructure.
Also, it's clear than IFR will change in different regions. The study clearly states that. 0,05 to Africa and Asia (Cross-Immunity???) and 0,3 to 0,4% in Europa and Americas.
having looked at that data quite a bit, regional variance looks rooted in 3 issues:
1. prior resistance. it's clear that asia, africa, and pac rim had far higher prior resistance than RoW, likely from exposure to earlier SARS-like viruses.
2. age played a big factor. much of asia and africa are extremely young and have small population cohorts of the elderly. as this disease was disproportionate in the old, that lowered death there.
3. obesity/diabetes/comorbidities of taking poor care of yourself. this was clearly a large factor in covid. if you are fit not fat, this disease posed lower risk than flu. if you were a morbidly obese t2 diabetic with hypertension, it posed high risk.
that was where this issue needed to be addressed: protecting high risk old and comorbid people. there was never any point in locking down the young and healthy. it just inflicted social and economic harm and suppressed the formation of low risk herd immunity.
we really handled this about as badly as we possible could have.
doing absolutely nothing would have been a far better choice.
In Portugal (where I live) only 4% of the deaths are under 60 and 66% are over 80!
My wife is brazilian and she shows me pictures of people that died of covid in Brazil. I would say that almost all of them are obese. Guys with 120-140 kilos, ladies with 90-120 kilos. And a lot of the (even people as young as 30 and 40) with diabetes and high blood pressure.
I am a family practice doc, and see patients in emergency departments, hospitals, and clinics in WA/OR as well as MT. From a "boots on the ground" perspective I'd add the following to the above points:
1 and 2 - the people I saw who were otherwise healthy (think old ranchers) but suffering from COVID pneumonia were those who live relatively socially isolated lives. I wonder if exposure to children and routine childhood germs confers protection. I would love to be able to run a regression analysis on "exposure to children" and "severity/prevalence of COVID pneumonia" This would also in a strange way explain why we have as a culture been so mean to our kids - people who are at most risk have less contact with kids by and large.
3 - At first we were worried about asthmatics, but I saw a bunch of people with asthma show up with COVID and they were anxious, but otherwise not as sick as the morbidly obese and/or end-stage COPD (emphysema) patients.
I agree that doing nothing would have been much better, too. Although I try to find silver linings.. but most days that is hard.
I’m quite sure this is not the face he made when he first saw Ferguson’s ridiculous models many pre-curve-flattening months ago. Gato, Ioannidis, and relatively few others have told us the truth all along. Grateful for the truth-tellers.
Having followed Ioannidis for a long time, when he came out during early Covid saying things were a screwy with the official messaging, I was scratching my head. I'm glad he's being vindicated by reality.
Prof. Ioannidis is a longtime intellectual hero of mine. My first clue that the reaction to the virus was insane and irreversible was the way he was treated after he published this: https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-fiasco-in-the-making-as-the-coronavirus-pandemic-takes-hold-we-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/
So true. I'm glad I can follow you somewhere. Truth speakers have been targeted and hard to find.
People need to understand, that in some places, the IFR will be higher. But it's mainly due to the bad health services quality and lack of health infrastructure.
Also, it's clear than IFR will change in different regions. The study clearly states that. 0,05 to Africa and Asia (Cross-Immunity???) and 0,3 to 0,4% in Europa and Americas.
having looked at that data quite a bit, regional variance looks rooted in 3 issues:
1. prior resistance. it's clear that asia, africa, and pac rim had far higher prior resistance than RoW, likely from exposure to earlier SARS-like viruses.
2. age played a big factor. much of asia and africa are extremely young and have small population cohorts of the elderly. as this disease was disproportionate in the old, that lowered death there.
3. obesity/diabetes/comorbidities of taking poor care of yourself. this was clearly a large factor in covid. if you are fit not fat, this disease posed lower risk than flu. if you were a morbidly obese t2 diabetic with hypertension, it posed high risk.
that was where this issue needed to be addressed: protecting high risk old and comorbid people. there was never any point in locking down the young and healthy. it just inflicted social and economic harm and suppressed the formation of low risk herd immunity.
we really handled this about as badly as we possible could have.
doing absolutely nothing would have been a far better choice.
2 is very much europe. 3 very much US and Brazil.
In Portugal (where I live) only 4% of the deaths are under 60 and 66% are over 80!
My wife is brazilian and she shows me pictures of people that died of covid in Brazil. I would say that almost all of them are obese. Guys with 120-140 kilos, ladies with 90-120 kilos. And a lot of the (even people as young as 30 and 40) with diabetes and high blood pressure.
I am a family practice doc, and see patients in emergency departments, hospitals, and clinics in WA/OR as well as MT. From a "boots on the ground" perspective I'd add the following to the above points:
1 and 2 - the people I saw who were otherwise healthy (think old ranchers) but suffering from COVID pneumonia were those who live relatively socially isolated lives. I wonder if exposure to children and routine childhood germs confers protection. I would love to be able to run a regression analysis on "exposure to children" and "severity/prevalence of COVID pneumonia" This would also in a strange way explain why we have as a culture been so mean to our kids - people who are at most risk have less contact with kids by and large.
3 - At first we were worried about asthmatics, but I saw a bunch of people with asthma show up with COVID and they were anxious, but otherwise not as sick as the morbidly obese and/or end-stage COPD (emphysema) patients.
I agree that doing nothing would have been much better, too. Although I try to find silver linings.. but most days that is hard.
I’m quite sure this is not the face he made when he first saw Ferguson’s ridiculous models many pre-curve-flattening months ago. Gato, Ioannidis, and relatively few others have told us the truth all along. Grateful for the truth-tellers.
Having followed Ioannidis for a long time, when he came out during early Covid saying things were a screwy with the official messaging, I was scratching my head. I'm glad he's being vindicated by reality.
Cat - can you provide the link to the two charts above or clearer images? Those should be spread far and wide.