the real public health crisis

is not covid, it's how poorly we take care of ourselves

some data to chew on from ben @USMortality with source data HERE

here’s the population fatality ratio for US covid for the 6 month period from feb to july broken down by age group. as can be clearly seen, age is a major risk factor and it accelerates in what is essentially an exponential curve.

this has long been known. but this is only a part of the story.

here’s the real story: it’s almost all driven by comorbidities once you get out of the very young who are so highly immune anyway. in most of the curve, you’re dropping a zero off the PFR. that’s a stunning outcome.

  • the fatality rate for an 85+ with no comorbidities is the same as the 45-55 cohort overall.

  • 65-74 looks like 35-44.

what this shows us is that covid19 is not so much a disease of the old as of the obese, hypertensive, diabetic, and heart diseased. most of these are predominantly diseases of lifestyle and can be handled with diet, exercise, and minor supplementation. obviously, there are exceptions. type 1 diabetes is autoimmune. that one just happens. it’s not like type 2 (by far the more common, 30mm in US vs 1.6mm type 1’s) which is essentially acquired insulin resistance from crushing your pancreas under 700 grams of sugar a day for a decade. that one, you generally brought on yourself.

let’s look at just the comorbid to round this out. now we see the vast price of health issues.

we can see the relative risk ratios here by comparing cohorts, no comorbidities vs yes.

these are big drops: 93% as an overall average and 99% in 85 and older, 98% in 75-85, and still 89% in 45-55.

it turns out that “being healthy” is as good or better than even the best vaccine claims in high risk age groups.

this has been one of the glaring hypocrisies of covid. so many of the people screaming that you need to protect their health are only at risk because they are badly overweight, have high blood pressure, and picked up some type 2 diabetes because of it. they did not take care of their own health or show any concern. yet now we must carry their burden?

perhaps rather than mandating vaccines, we should mandate gym memberships and getting some fresh air and vitamin D from sunshine.

odd how the same people saying “your body, my choice” about vaccination mandates and masking and lockdowns suddenly blanch and bridle that “you cannot tell me what to do” if one suggests denying medical care to the obese and hypertensive who refuse to get on a meaningful health program. but what, truly, is the difference?

these vaccines are not sterilizing. they do not stop spread. neither do masks or lockdowns. but being healthy is and does, probably to a much greater extent. you get the rapid, effective immune response you ought to have not the muddy attenuated one of the comorbid. you’ll be more productive, cost less, contract and spread less disease, and live longer. side effects include being stronger and looking better.

anyone pushing for mandatory vaccination and masking but unwilling to support being forced to exercise and eat right until their body fat and heart and glycemic functions are in the safe range would seem to be engaging in a form of hypocrisy. drinking mountain dew until your A1C is 11 and then demanding, from a lazy boy in front of the TV, that i care about your health is just not going to fly.

look, obviously this is somewhat tongue in cheek. i’m definitively not for mandating either one. it think people should make their own choices and face their own consequences. but it’s an interesting thought experiment.

if you’re going to claim the right to impose actions on others for their own good, you’d better be ready to accept the same in return.

i find this to be an interesting acid test to see just how principled people really are on this belief. being healthy drops covid risk by about the same amount as the best vaccine claims and stops about 200 other bad outcomes besides. if we all did it, the US could cut federal health spending in half and still pay for every single procedure in america with what’s left.

maybe give it a try instead of advocating for closing all the gyms…

the common western notion of medicine being “get sick, see doctor, get treatment” is the wrong angle. the eastern tradition of “see doctor, they help you take care of yourself, stay healthy, and never get sick in the first place” is where it’s at.

give it some thought. the health and life you save may be your own.

(genuine el gato malo picture. we practice what we preach.)