"20 times likelier to die… 17 times likelier to be hospitalized…10 times likelier to be infected..."
This, people and felines, is RELATIVE RISK, which is often deployed disingenuously to freak out the average citizen. It was used to great effect to convince everyone that every living breathing human needs statins. It works because most people are fairly ignorant about math in general and statistics in particular.
While relative risk might have an actual statistical usefulness in certain situations, it is absolutely inappropriate to use in assessing one's own risk/benefit calculation.
Here's a real world example from several weeks ago (numbers approximate due to my memory, but in the right range). "If hospitalized with Covid, the unvaccinated are 4.7 times more likely to die than the vaccinated." The actual statistics being described? If hospitalized unvaccinated, the chance of dying was .033%. If hospitalized vaccinated, the chance of dying was .007%. In other words, if you're in the hospital with Covid, whether you're vaccinated or unvaccinated, the chance of dying is *less than 1/10th of 1%*.
Anyone who is seriously worried about academic and minute differences like that would be much better off investigating lifestyle interventions to improve their overall health, which would make a much bigger impact.
At a very local level a friend of mine (he's 63) is unjabbed, his wife is boosted and the two kids are double jabbed (they're in their mid-20's). They ALL have Omicron but funny enough my friend is not as severe as the other 3 in the family. My brother-in-law (doctor) and his wife (insanely fit BTW) are boosted - they and 3 of the 4 kids (all under 13) got Omicron. So Omicron doesn't care how many times one goes to the gym or if you're a vegan - Omicron is just being Omicron I suppose. Key thing is that none of these folk needed to go to the quack or ER and are all recovering naturally.
OMG, I've been laughing for the last several minutes at reading WaPo's labeling of Darth Fauci as "top infectious disease expert!" What does a "total-shit, bottom-rung infectious disease expert" look like then?
The "x" times more likely to die statement regarding the unvaccinated is so disingenuous. It's always worded in a way that makes it seem like your chance of dying increases by being unvaccinated. My chance of dying was always a very small number. Getting vaccinated to make that number smaller (not necessarily a given) at the cost of a wide variety of side effects at an unknown rate of occurrence doesn't seem very smart. Now throw in Omicron that by all bits of early data seems markedly less deadly, getting vaccinated seems even more like a losers bet.
So we know omicron is significantly more mild. And that it’s taken over in the north east states.
So death rates should be in decline.
I wonder if the death counts rising are vaxx injuries where the patient happens to have covid positive test. Too bad we don’t have a break down of death with or from covid. It would be telling if a large number of death were with covid and vaxxed and a newly found heart condition.
Joining as a paid member. You, eugyppius, and Alex have been like trustworthy friends throughout this mess. As much as I generally denigrate the impacts of social media on community and “society,” I highly recommend you! I may have to rethink that blanket condemnation. 🙄
I would not have found my way through the noise and coercion with anything approaching confidence without your steadfast reasoning and reporting. The second-guessing would have fueled debilitating neurosis! I am so grateful.
I thoroughly enjoy the PR insights that I don’t get anywhere else. La isla is special to me.
Plus you are the wittiest of the three. A dog-lover, I fastidiously avoided cat memes. Until I met you. Hilarious and clever! It would be an honor to be counted among the gatopals.
Why are they continuing to say “ it’s the unvaxxed in the hospitals. Get vaxxed. All ICU beds are taken.” This is our local news and local county health officer. Illinois is now running ads about the vax hesitant who wish they’d gotten jabbed. So tired of the fear porn. Thank you for tracking the data and explaining it so clearly.
Symptoms hit around 2 pm slight fever never went above 100.5. My hips, back and head hurt like hell. Next morning woke up very little aches. Fever broke that night. My vaxxed friends were down for 3 days.
You're always coming up with surprises, which I then entertain my family and friends with! But then they just think I'm even crazier... SO many people who can't deal with the cognitive dissonance of it all...
I love how the fear porn slips into everything these demons say. "The unvaccinated are going to drop dead" stuff. Ugh. In my area I know a lot of people who haven't taken the shots and a lot who have taken them (most are saying hell no to the "booster). There's some sniffles and light coughs out there in both groups that I know. So far, we are all calling it a seasonal cold. Just like we have for decades.
The MSM is avoiding reporting the experiences of those unvaxed who get omicron unless of course, they end up in the hospital.
I'm 61 and I had covid over the weekend (couple of nights with a fever and a headache). I decided I to let my elderly parents know I had had covid; I did not want to worry them initially. I first spoke with my father who asked how it was and told me that my uncle was in the hospital on oxygen. He commented that my uncle was not vaccinated but I explained that I knew he had in fact been vaccinated. I had visited the family for a funeral in July of last year and had spoken with my uncle about vaccines - I was unvaccinated and I refused to enter the funeral home where there were a large number of mask less vaccinated individuals. I had read enough by then to understand that the vaccinated might pose a risk, especially before being fully vaccinated. My uncle told me he had been vaccinated, my father does not talk to him, so he would never have known.
I next spoke with my mother and her reaction floored me. Her first reaction was to ask me if I had now gotten vaccinated. I explained to her how mild it had been and she immediately shut me off and started talking about how it affects everyone differently. And then mentioned my "unvaccinated" uncle. I know my mother watches only the local television news and CBS, NBC, and ABC yet I had stupidly assumed she might actually listen to her son with firsthand knowledge. When I visited in July, nearly all of the family was vaxed and no one was wearing masks indoors. I had been following the news closely around the world, especially in Israel, and had seen the number of breakthrough infections rising dramatically and knew the US was next. So I stayed on the porch of the funeral home. My mother would point me out to relatives; I believe she told them I was unvaccinated and that's why I did not want to come inside. Once at the cemetery, I was a pole bearer; I was not concerned about outdoor transmission. Less than two weeks later, the CDC began to recommend that even the vaccinated return to using masks, etc. Obviously she did not listen to me back then but I guess I had hoped she would start to change her opinion.
This is going to be a long battle to change minds.
Unvaxxed. Just recently caught from my vaxxed daughter. I had cold symptoms for 2 days.
"20 times likelier to die… 17 times likelier to be hospitalized…10 times likelier to be infected..."
This, people and felines, is RELATIVE RISK, which is often deployed disingenuously to freak out the average citizen. It was used to great effect to convince everyone that every living breathing human needs statins. It works because most people are fairly ignorant about math in general and statistics in particular.
While relative risk might have an actual statistical usefulness in certain situations, it is absolutely inappropriate to use in assessing one's own risk/benefit calculation.
Here's a real world example from several weeks ago (numbers approximate due to my memory, but in the right range). "If hospitalized with Covid, the unvaccinated are 4.7 times more likely to die than the vaccinated." The actual statistics being described? If hospitalized unvaccinated, the chance of dying was .033%. If hospitalized vaccinated, the chance of dying was .007%. In other words, if you're in the hospital with Covid, whether you're vaccinated or unvaccinated, the chance of dying is *less than 1/10th of 1%*.
Anyone who is seriously worried about academic and minute differences like that would be much better off investigating lifestyle interventions to improve their overall health, which would make a much bigger impact.
At a very local level a friend of mine (he's 63) is unjabbed, his wife is boosted and the two kids are double jabbed (they're in their mid-20's). They ALL have Omicron but funny enough my friend is not as severe as the other 3 in the family. My brother-in-law (doctor) and his wife (insanely fit BTW) are boosted - they and 3 of the 4 kids (all under 13) got Omicron. So Omicron doesn't care how many times one goes to the gym or if you're a vegan - Omicron is just being Omicron I suppose. Key thing is that none of these folk needed to go to the quack or ER and are all recovering naturally.
OMG, I've been laughing for the last several minutes at reading WaPo's labeling of Darth Fauci as "top infectious disease expert!" What does a "total-shit, bottom-rung infectious disease expert" look like then?
The "x" times more likely to die statement regarding the unvaccinated is so disingenuous. It's always worded in a way that makes it seem like your chance of dying increases by being unvaccinated. My chance of dying was always a very small number. Getting vaccinated to make that number smaller (not necessarily a given) at the cost of a wide variety of side effects at an unknown rate of occurrence doesn't seem very smart. Now throw in Omicron that by all bits of early data seems markedly less deadly, getting vaccinated seems even more like a losers bet.
Great graphs. The final thread is coming unwound. Nobody wants to say, "We told you so," when it comes to people dying, but...we told you so...
So we know omicron is significantly more mild. And that it’s taken over in the north east states.
So death rates should be in decline.
I wonder if the death counts rising are vaxx injuries where the patient happens to have covid positive test. Too bad we don’t have a break down of death with or from covid. It would be telling if a large number of death were with covid and vaxxed and a newly found heart condition.
Joining as a paid member. You, eugyppius, and Alex have been like trustworthy friends throughout this mess. As much as I generally denigrate the impacts of social media on community and “society,” I highly recommend you! I may have to rethink that blanket condemnation. 🙄
I would not have found my way through the noise and coercion with anything approaching confidence without your steadfast reasoning and reporting. The second-guessing would have fueled debilitating neurosis! I am so grateful.
I thoroughly enjoy the PR insights that I don’t get anywhere else. La isla is special to me.
Plus you are the wittiest of the three. A dog-lover, I fastidiously avoided cat memes. Until I met you. Hilarious and clever! It would be an honor to be counted among the gatopals.
Why are they continuing to say “ it’s the unvaxxed in the hospitals. Get vaxxed. All ICU beds are taken.” This is our local news and local county health officer. Illinois is now running ads about the vax hesitant who wish they’d gotten jabbed. So tired of the fear porn. Thank you for tracking the data and explaining it so clearly.
/sarcasm on
Unvaxxed and man did OMI hit me hard.
/sarcasm off
Symptoms hit around 2 pm slight fever never went above 100.5. My hips, back and head hurt like hell. Next morning woke up very little aches. Fever broke that night. My vaxxed friends were down for 3 days.
You are an absolute lion. How can we get you the Pulitzer Prize?
How do you generate this much good content so fast?
Are cats more efficient than humans, or is there really more than one cat?
You're always coming up with surprises, which I then entertain my family and friends with! But then they just think I'm even crazier... SO many people who can't deal with the cognitive dissonance of it all...
I love how the fear porn slips into everything these demons say. "The unvaccinated are going to drop dead" stuff. Ugh. In my area I know a lot of people who haven't taken the shots and a lot who have taken them (most are saying hell no to the "booster). There's some sniffles and light coughs out there in both groups that I know. So far, we are all calling it a seasonal cold. Just like we have for decades.
The MSM is avoiding reporting the experiences of those unvaxed who get omicron unless of course, they end up in the hospital.
I'm 61 and I had covid over the weekend (couple of nights with a fever and a headache). I decided I to let my elderly parents know I had had covid; I did not want to worry them initially. I first spoke with my father who asked how it was and told me that my uncle was in the hospital on oxygen. He commented that my uncle was not vaccinated but I explained that I knew he had in fact been vaccinated. I had visited the family for a funeral in July of last year and had spoken with my uncle about vaccines - I was unvaccinated and I refused to enter the funeral home where there were a large number of mask less vaccinated individuals. I had read enough by then to understand that the vaccinated might pose a risk, especially before being fully vaccinated. My uncle told me he had been vaccinated, my father does not talk to him, so he would never have known.
I next spoke with my mother and her reaction floored me. Her first reaction was to ask me if I had now gotten vaccinated. I explained to her how mild it had been and she immediately shut me off and started talking about how it affects everyone differently. And then mentioned my "unvaccinated" uncle. I know my mother watches only the local television news and CBS, NBC, and ABC yet I had stupidly assumed she might actually listen to her son with firsthand knowledge. When I visited in July, nearly all of the family was vaxed and no one was wearing masks indoors. I had been following the news closely around the world, especially in Israel, and had seen the number of breakthrough infections rising dramatically and knew the US was next. So I stayed on the porch of the funeral home. My mother would point me out to relatives; I believe she told them I was unvaccinated and that's why I did not want to come inside. Once at the cemetery, I was a pole bearer; I was not concerned about outdoor transmission. Less than two weeks later, the CDC began to recommend that even the vaccinated return to using masks, etc. Obviously she did not listen to me back then but I guess I had hoped she would start to change her opinion.
This is going to be a long battle to change minds.
Why does Fauci-Mengele give news that any yutz with a keyboard can learn 40 days earlier? I guess that's why he's Mengele.