Recklessness seems to be the new faith-based public health best practice these days as far as I can see. They had a chance to take it slow and reasonable back in December by only allowing the EUA to cover the elderly and comorbid and telling everyone else that they would be fine, this virus is of no additional risk to them relative to normal flu and cold viruses, and even spectacularly great for kids. This was all scientifically established beyond any reasonable doubt in December. Buuuuut … no …. not the global public health establishment (aka the government arm of Big PHARMA). So it was vaxx, vaxx, vaxxity vaxx we go. Gin up the hysteria of “variants”, get those ER and ICU shots from stock footage back on the nightly news. Threaten to destroy people's careers if the don't comply, tell people all their children are going to DIE if they are not vaxxed soon. Complete and total recklessness. And so, here we are, the boosters are coming to the elderly and “compromised” (aka everyone over 16 who wants one) to be delivered just in time for the fall seasonal surges in the midwest followed by the Northeast … perfect timing for the WW.
Naturally, people will blame the lack of masking up in outdoor settings and while walking to the bathroom in restaurants and the “unvaccinated, unboosted” for all of the disease and death that results. Pfizer will announce its 4th boost, now recommended every 3 months. And we will be here again in December. Sigh … this is our new Afghanistan, GWOT.
I understand that neutropenia following D1 is confirmed and not disputed by the vaccine manufacturers, and I agree that immunosuppression can lead very quickly to terrible outcomes.
But I also wonder if this rise in C19 cases and deaths following D1 and now D3 are, in fact, vaccine deaths. We know that the LNPs can travel all over the body and that they were designed to survive the immune assault for a time. It is possible that the PCR tests...even antigen tests...are detecting the vaccine nucleotides...not viral nucleotides.
Yes, severe immunosuppression following D1 and D3 could explain the time compression between diagnosis (+PCR result) and death...so could vaccine injury.
The Israeli health ministry could easily answer the question of immunosuppression with blood tests following D3. Trying to determine where the PCR or antigen tests are detecting vaccine not virus nucleotides is more difficult. And, of course, no one is motivated to look for something they don't want to find.
Thank you for you data analysis and insight. We are all in your debt.
“Progress means getting nearer to the place you want to be. And if you have taken a wrong turning, then to go forward does not get you any nearer. If you are on the wrong road, progress means doing an about turn and walking back to the right road; and in that case the man who turns back soonest is the most progressive man.” - CS Lewis
The state controls the data so we are ‘effed. Couple this with a zombie MSM and the dice are loaded. Imagine how bad these data would look of the keepers of the key weren’t treating booster within 14 days as unvaxxed? How are the NHS treating 1st jab and within 14 days 2nd jab?
Here is another angle that has been itching my fur (I got sucked into the cat references). What if the vaccines are turning the innately immune (estimated at 80% in the below study; estimates vary) into infectious transmitters of the disease? That is, the vaccines are literally transforming people that were dead ends to the covid prior to the vaccine into superspreading vectors after being jabbed.
I think this is more than plausible and it explains the sudden resurgence in the southern states, Israel and the UK. Centrally planning the human immune system can have grave consequences (stole that from @kevinmckernan).
I'm still trying to decide if "severe adverse events" from the Pfizer vaccine or "severe COVID" is worse. There is a 4:1 ratio that spooks me. According to the study protocol (page 373 of the PDF), "severe COVID" didn't require hospitalization, only a positive lab test, fatigue or nasal congestion, plus HR >= 125 bpm. It can also be worse, but frequency probably clusters at the mild end. In the follow-up study (Appendix, Table S3) there were 112 more severe adverse events for the vaccine vs. the placebo, and 29 fewer cases of severe COVID. I'd rather have HR >= 125 bpm and some fever than any of the side effects in their severe form (pain, redness, swelling, fever, fatigue, headache, chills, vomiting, diarrhea). The 4:1 odds make this trade-off even worse.
I've heard the counter argument from an MD that she sees a lot more COVID patients in the hospital than ones with vaccine side effects. But maybe the side-effects are just attributable less clearly to the vaccine, or people are more likely to tough them out?
As a statistician, I give this naughty cat a thumbs up.
More than that, I'd suggest that if we had a sane public health system, such analysis would never fall to a non-human pawing at a keyboard on substack. Is there any best litmus test for "the path dependence of bureaucracy has jumped the shark"?
Gato didn’t these therapeutics get approved because they provided 95% relative risk reduction? Honest question here. Why are the FDA not evaluating these based on the trial data end points, which now looked famed big time?
The schoolteacher story really tries to avoid laying blame on the booster shot. So, propaganda it is. Oh, the dates on one of the charts are set to 1900.
Attributing a spike in "cases" to the boosters runs into trouble when challenged with Figure 2 in https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.08.27.21262679v1 . Admittedly a horrible garbage study, but it finds positive infection efficacy in the days after 3rd dose. Notably it *does not report* severe outcome and death efficacy in the first 11 days.
Additionally, watch out with the Zioni graphic. The blips before August 6 in "per 100k" cases are measured against the early adopters, before the July 31 mass roll-out (which only begins to add people into the "fully vaccinated" pool on August 6). They all correspond to only 1 - 3 new positive cases against a population of ~1,900 early adopters.
If the Bar-On et al. study is correct on infections and yet deaths are increasing immediately after boosters (as would be shown in the messy, hybrid "partially" vaccinated group, not the "fully" vaccinated), that means these deaths are probably from the boosters themselves, and are merely coincidentally being *preceded* by a positive test (despite a decrease in risk of infection). I suppose this requires "fishing for correlations," but sometimes the truth doesn't want to conform to respectable methods of statistical torture. At the risk of spamming a link I already shared, I wrote up my wildly irresponsible booster death theory here https://unglossed.substack.com/p/dashboard-divinations-take-5
I know quite a few people who got hammered during the WW when the shot rolled out here earlier in the year. I know a number of people eagerly anticipating a booster or two, or whatever subscription model our big Pharma overlords dream up. These are fantastic times- worrying as well.
I connected with this article more than any other, specifically with the story of Sheri Wise, the school counselor in Carrollton. I’m not sure if she worked in Carrollton, Texas, but I am a school counselor in Farmers Branch, Texas which is the neighboring city of Carrollton. These two cities make up the Carrollton-Farmers Branch ISD. I guess you could say this is a tale of two counselors and my heart breaks for her family. Unlike Ms. Wise, I never stopped seeing my large family including my 80 year old mother. In the past 18 months I traveled to 5 other states and 2 other countries-Cozumel in Mexico and Central Greece. I only wear a mask at work (required). My mask is made out of sheer curtain material. 3 of my siblings and my 80 year old mother have had Covid and I cared for my mother around the clock for 5 days when she was sick. I am happy to report that everyone is doing well. I have not been vaccinated and I have tested negative for Covid 9 times. If I haven’t had it yet, it’s just a matter of time. Long story short…We can’t choose how we leave this life, but we can choose how we live this life.
Has there been any studies presenting/proving the 2-week-worry-window (I like the term!) effect?
The one thing some people would use as "counter argument" is that initially mostly it was unvaccinated people that would represent the surges in cases (during the first shot peaks).
This is easily explained by just realizing that usually only 1 person per family would get vaccinated at a time. So Grandpa falls into the vaccination age range - he gets vaccinated, weakened immune system, thinks he's protected, goes out and meets some friends (of same age group, also recently vaccinated) and gets COVID, brings it home and infects all of his unvaccinated family members (could be 2, 3, 10?).
The trend is so clear in populations, anybody with some good machine learning skills should be able to create a predictive model that will show clearly how the amount of people in the worry window affects the COVID rates.
Recklessness seems to be the new faith-based public health best practice these days as far as I can see. They had a chance to take it slow and reasonable back in December by only allowing the EUA to cover the elderly and comorbid and telling everyone else that they would be fine, this virus is of no additional risk to them relative to normal flu and cold viruses, and even spectacularly great for kids. This was all scientifically established beyond any reasonable doubt in December. Buuuuut … no …. not the global public health establishment (aka the government arm of Big PHARMA). So it was vaxx, vaxx, vaxxity vaxx we go. Gin up the hysteria of “variants”, get those ER and ICU shots from stock footage back on the nightly news. Threaten to destroy people's careers if the don't comply, tell people all their children are going to DIE if they are not vaxxed soon. Complete and total recklessness. And so, here we are, the boosters are coming to the elderly and “compromised” (aka everyone over 16 who wants one) to be delivered just in time for the fall seasonal surges in the midwest followed by the Northeast … perfect timing for the WW.
Naturally, people will blame the lack of masking up in outdoor settings and while walking to the bathroom in restaurants and the “unvaccinated, unboosted” for all of the disease and death that results. Pfizer will announce its 4th boost, now recommended every 3 months. And we will be here again in December. Sigh … this is our new Afghanistan, GWOT.
I understand that neutropenia following D1 is confirmed and not disputed by the vaccine manufacturers, and I agree that immunosuppression can lead very quickly to terrible outcomes.
But I also wonder if this rise in C19 cases and deaths following D1 and now D3 are, in fact, vaccine deaths. We know that the LNPs can travel all over the body and that they were designed to survive the immune assault for a time. It is possible that the PCR tests...even antigen tests...are detecting the vaccine nucleotides...not viral nucleotides.
Yes, severe immunosuppression following D1 and D3 could explain the time compression between diagnosis (+PCR result) and death...so could vaccine injury.
The Israeli health ministry could easily answer the question of immunosuppression with blood tests following D3. Trying to determine where the PCR or antigen tests are detecting vaccine not virus nucleotides is more difficult. And, of course, no one is motivated to look for something they don't want to find.
Thank you for you data analysis and insight. We are all in your debt.
“Progress means getting nearer to the place you want to be. And if you have taken a wrong turning, then to go forward does not get you any nearer. If you are on the wrong road, progress means doing an about turn and walking back to the right road; and in that case the man who turns back soonest is the most progressive man.” - CS Lewis
The state controls the data so we are ‘effed. Couple this with a zombie MSM and the dice are loaded. Imagine how bad these data would look of the keepers of the key weren’t treating booster within 14 days as unvaxxed? How are the NHS treating 1st jab and within 14 days 2nd jab?
Here is another angle that has been itching my fur (I got sucked into the cat references). What if the vaccines are turning the innately immune (estimated at 80% in the below study; estimates vary) into infectious transmitters of the disease? That is, the vaccines are literally transforming people that were dead ends to the covid prior to the vaccine into superspreading vectors after being jabbed.
I think this is more than plausible and it explains the sudden resurgence in the southern states, Israel and the UK. Centrally planning the human immune system can have grave consequences (stole that from @kevinmckernan).
https://insight.jci.org/articles/view/146316
I'm still trying to decide if "severe adverse events" from the Pfizer vaccine or "severe COVID" is worse. There is a 4:1 ratio that spooks me. According to the study protocol (page 373 of the PDF), "severe COVID" didn't require hospitalization, only a positive lab test, fatigue or nasal congestion, plus HR >= 125 bpm. It can also be worse, but frequency probably clusters at the mild end. In the follow-up study (Appendix, Table S3) there were 112 more severe adverse events for the vaccine vs. the placebo, and 29 fewer cases of severe COVID. I'd rather have HR >= 125 bpm and some fever than any of the side effects in their severe form (pain, redness, swelling, fever, fatigue, headache, chills, vomiting, diarrhea). The 4:1 odds make this trade-off even worse.
I've heard the counter argument from an MD that she sees a lot more COVID patients in the hospital than ones with vaccine side effects. But maybe the side-effects are just attributable less clearly to the vaccine, or people are more likely to tough them out?
Protocol from here: https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2034577
Other data from the supplement: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.28.21261159v1
As a statistician, I give this naughty cat a thumbs up.
More than that, I'd suggest that if we had a sane public health system, such analysis would never fall to a non-human pawing at a keyboard on substack. Is there any best litmus test for "the path dependence of bureaucracy has jumped the shark"?
Gato didn’t these therapeutics get approved because they provided 95% relative risk reduction? Honest question here. Why are the FDA not evaluating these based on the trial data end points, which now looked famed big time?
The schoolteacher story really tries to avoid laying blame on the booster shot. So, propaganda it is. Oh, the dates on one of the charts are set to 1900.
Presuming that 3rd dose recipients are not "fully vaccinated" until day 7 matches what the Israel dashboard states in https://datadashboard.health.gov.il/COVID-19/guide
Attributing a spike in "cases" to the boosters runs into trouble when challenged with Figure 2 in https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.08.27.21262679v1 . Admittedly a horrible garbage study, but it finds positive infection efficacy in the days after 3rd dose. Notably it *does not report* severe outcome and death efficacy in the first 11 days.
Additionally, watch out with the Zioni graphic. The blips before August 6 in "per 100k" cases are measured against the early adopters, before the July 31 mass roll-out (which only begins to add people into the "fully vaccinated" pool on August 6). They all correspond to only 1 - 3 new positive cases against a population of ~1,900 early adopters.
If the Bar-On et al. study is correct on infections and yet deaths are increasing immediately after boosters (as would be shown in the messy, hybrid "partially" vaccinated group, not the "fully" vaccinated), that means these deaths are probably from the boosters themselves, and are merely coincidentally being *preceded* by a positive test (despite a decrease in risk of infection). I suppose this requires "fishing for correlations," but sometimes the truth doesn't want to conform to respectable methods of statistical torture. At the risk of spamming a link I already shared, I wrote up my wildly irresponsible booster death theory here https://unglossed.substack.com/p/dashboard-divinations-take-5
I know quite a few people who got hammered during the WW when the shot rolled out here earlier in the year. I know a number of people eagerly anticipating a booster or two, or whatever subscription model our big Pharma overlords dream up. These are fantastic times- worrying as well.
a us md not aware of WW? don't surprise me none! us md's read the pharma literature and most dare not question flaky inferences from contrived tests.
I connected with this article more than any other, specifically with the story of Sheri Wise, the school counselor in Carrollton. I’m not sure if she worked in Carrollton, Texas, but I am a school counselor in Farmers Branch, Texas which is the neighboring city of Carrollton. These two cities make up the Carrollton-Farmers Branch ISD. I guess you could say this is a tale of two counselors and my heart breaks for her family. Unlike Ms. Wise, I never stopped seeing my large family including my 80 year old mother. In the past 18 months I traveled to 5 other states and 2 other countries-Cozumel in Mexico and Central Greece. I only wear a mask at work (required). My mask is made out of sheer curtain material. 3 of my siblings and my 80 year old mother have had Covid and I cared for my mother around the clock for 5 days when she was sick. I am happy to report that everyone is doing well. I have not been vaccinated and I have tested negative for Covid 9 times. If I haven’t had it yet, it’s just a matter of time. Long story short…We can’t choose how we leave this life, but we can choose how we live this life.
Has there been any studies presenting/proving the 2-week-worry-window (I like the term!) effect?
The one thing some people would use as "counter argument" is that initially mostly it was unvaccinated people that would represent the surges in cases (during the first shot peaks).
This is easily explained by just realizing that usually only 1 person per family would get vaccinated at a time. So Grandpa falls into the vaccination age range - he gets vaccinated, weakened immune system, thinks he's protected, goes out and meets some friends (of same age group, also recently vaccinated) and gets COVID, brings it home and infects all of his unvaccinated family members (could be 2, 3, 10?).
The trend is so clear in populations, anybody with some good machine learning skills should be able to create a predictive model that will show clearly how the amount of people in the worry window affects the COVID rates.
https://twitter.com/prof_shahar/status/1440381131002548226
out of curiosity who here thinks the chinese LAV vaccines might actually be hte best bet?