a tale of two new englands and a hypothesis on the variance
This is great. It supports a perfectly reasonable "dry tinder" sort of theory where the places that got blitzed before there was a vaccine now have solid herd immunity.
If that's true we have a second controlled experiment on the horizon: places that built up herd immunity the hard way (NY, Boston) versus the less urban places that have a higher prevalence of vaccination-based immunity. Will the vaxxed-only keep getting sick while the herd immunity places don't, is what is on my mind.
Some people are terrified of hospitals. Remdesvier, ventilators, administrators wanting money.
I'm going to bo like Amish... no testing, no hospitals...
I'll take my chances than be with evil folks
But Biden thinks that this winter we will all die from it. He must not have read the news that this is a mild variant. Well, he might be scared because he has been jabbed !
One variable may be Vitamin D. It was a warmer Autumn than usual throughout all of New England but was more so in southern New England. So people in southern New England were likely outside more than people in northern New England until very recently. That means people in southern New England received more Vitamin D from sunshine and were also indoors less which would also decrease transmission.Of course this variance in Vitamin D and being indoors more during colder times is what drives seasonality.
inevitably, someone will likely object “but it all would have been worse had there been no vaccines!”
If that were true, then why was 2021...with mass vaccinations and less virulent viral variants...worse than 2020?
I can't remember the name, but I saw an interview of a health department official from Vermont who basically admitted Vermont was paying the price for suppressing the virus last year.
Why would you bring data and facts into the conversation, gato? You know the magical nature of the vaccines are their ability to function through unwavering belief that things would have been worse without them.
SUCH helpful analysis, Gato . . . thank you!
Obviously something is going on - just wish someone would take a serious run at it on the main stage. This is all getting tiring and having two living senior parents I do worry (none of us victims for sure but anyways)
Of course, this is perhaps the precise reason the CDC and others refuse to track natural immunity, a.k.a. SARS-CoV-2 Wuhan 2019 survivors. It would allow this kind of calculation to show the futility of the mRNA treatment regimens.
6th Circuit Dissolves 5th Circuit Stay in OSHA Mandate Case
A good read would lead one to conclude that the judges have no clue of who it is that is spreading Covid.
The number infected at 97 percent fully vaccinated Cornell University is now over 1,500.
I'm from Massachusetts (Cape Cod) - maybe my observations would add something useful. I believe it's as you say - acquired immunity.
Most restrictions are all but gone- state offices still require a mask, but everything else appears to be voluntary and/or the discretion of local counties and towns. I think kids are still forced to wear them in at least some schools. For the most part, everywhere you go there are no restrictions at all, apart from sometimes a sign asking unvaxxed people to wear a mask, but nobody really cares or pays any attention to it. This is virtually all stores, banks, libraries and restaurants. Of course, I have not submitted to the shots, but I go most everywhere freely and though I guess (from the stats) most people are vaxxed, hardly anyone seems worried about it anymore. Some people still wear masks when they don't have to, but they're a minority now.
It was a busy tourist season this year, with lots of people from everywhere mixing quite freely. Even 2020- the height of the lockdowns- tourists were here and we were all mixing pretty casually, shaking hands and all that.
The only person I know who's had any flu/covid or whatever this year was fully vaxxed. I believe there are a lot of vaxxed people who have some regrets. But, regrets or not, most vaxxed people I've encountered do not seem worried about the vax status of others.
Take my observations for whatever they're worth. I'm speaking only from what I've seen myself and what other people around here have told me.
Reminder: the vax pimps NEVER claimed that their poisons would reduce severity and death.
I live in Connecticut (southern CT) and these people are still very serious about only socializing outside
of course they do, just yesterday I've read that in my country unvaccinated person died in ambulance after waiting for 8 hours for test result, no need for hospitalization anymore. person had symptoms of a heart attack, but now ambulance workers , at least some of them, follow strict protocol - first test, then aid, if negative of course. if positive you are very likely to get quarantine instead of help. scary times
Are Omicron cases going to start rising due to a definition change? https://nakedemperor.substack.com/p/increase-in-cases-or-definition-fiddling
This seems to support the dry tinder hypothesis discussed a year ago regarding Sweden and its neighbors.