how the definitions of "full vaccinated" and now "boosted" are exaggerating (and possibly creating from whole cloth) VE and turning the data into gibberish
I've pointed this out time and time again. This is part of how the trick is done with rates per 100k, the unvaccinated cohort gets smaller and the vaccinated bigger while the vaccinated cases count as unvaccinated. It's fraud. There are dozens of problems with it and no honest person thinks it is fine. The fact governments and scientists all over the world are ok with it shows that none of them are honest.
I have been explaining this to my friends who are Doctors, and they can't even do the simple math to understand it. They did all go to California public schools and colleges so that probably explains it.
Well, their numbers dwindle as area hospitals buy up independent practices...but then I at least still have them as individual clients if not as business clients any longer.
My wife is a surgeon (and edits a surgical journal) and is very much "not a math person." My kids ask me (physics background) for help with their math homework.
I used to teach AP Calculus in HS and was a tutor in college while being a Math/Physics/Chem major so I had ample exposure to a wide variety of "smart people"... high GPAs, in everything but math...
My favorite group of kids by far to joke with was those who were going into Medicine. About 2 weeks into a new semester the Pre-med kids would come piling in scared stiff from their college algebra and college physics courses...
"Look Math is easy. But there's only 3 kinds of people in this world. Those who can do math and and those who can't."
Actually there are a variety of people with compensating skills. We who can figure simply must do a better job of making it simple enough to trust us. What our cat suggests is manipulation of data to create an outcome which is simply propaganda. Seven out of ten doctors told me so, have a Camel.
So this is a version of Immortal Time Bias right?! This is huge! Honestly the best thing I've seen you write so far.
It seems like we should be able to model the rates of vaccination against the change in the Unvaccinated population and see if the "waning efficacy" is actually all this effect. Because as fewer people get vaccinated and pollute the Unvaccinated pool, the apparent efficacy will fade. I bet it's not the entire fading effect but it's part of it.
Also, cohort got changed to chortling in one spot.
I've looked at these numbers extensively where I live. What I see is that the effect of an active vaccination campaign on the observed efficacy against infection is obvious, it significantly and noisily boosts reported efficacy, but after those campaigns are finished you still see some efficacy that very steadily wanes down to nothing.
I can only conclude that after 2-doses plus a break-in period, there was indeed some efficacy to be eroded. But just because there was some efficacy after 2 doses against September's variants doesn't mean that there's efficacy after 3 doses of the same unimproved vaccine against today's more evolved variants. In fact, it's not even clear how much of the decline in efficacy can be attributed to declining effects of the drug on immune systems versus the virus steadily evolving to escape it.
Beautful! That link and this article are so utterly helpful. I have scratched my head for months trying to think of how the stats presented to the genearl public have accounted for the two week time lag. This article explains how the stats presented have NOT accounted for the two week period and how they have in fact used a predictable statistical bias to manufactor false VE numbers. It is shocking! What I remember most from my stats classes is the axiom "Stats Lie" It is the most important concept in my opinion. I am always suspicious but this is far worse than I imagined.
Incredible analysis. No one will ever be fully vaccinated so the powers that be can keep profiting. The live medical experiment will continue until we the people put an end to it.
The model is simple: theoretically fabricate a 'new disease' and then cause real disease with the novel 'treatment'.
Call the 'new disease' a 'variant' and keep the Covid Crazy Train rolling all the way to the bank.
"Simulate the action. Stimulate the desired outcome."
The mRNA drug triggers toxic stress, the body releases exosomes during inflammation-detoxification-apoptosis, the exosomes are falsely labelled 'viral rna' and amplified by misuse of PCR.
More injections/drugs prescribed, more toxicity.
And on and on it goes.
The goal is to include and thus hide the many variable disease conditions directly caused by the mRNA injection behind false 'covid' PCR diagnoses, providing a never-ending self-fulfilling pretext for more injections and more false contagion restrictions.
Our method gives us one conclusion, the truth: 'Covid' is a hoax.
The data collection mechanisms they have in place are - to anyone with experience in doing such systems analysis - laughably bad and obviously really are intentional obfuscation and cheating. It's heads we win, tails you lose - well it was meant to be anyway, but now things are so bad even with a biased coin they can't maintain it.
Thanks I knew and forgot this, so I leveled back on up reading. My family (wife/rang of kids) is remaining all jab-free and certain we're sadly going to bite our lips on a lot of "I told you so's" - I ran out of saliva trying to stop my wider circles getting 2-3 jabs. Already had a tragedy just outside my regular contact field, albeit none of my friends will ascribe it so even though he had clots followed by rapid organ failure and was an ox of 47 year old. RIP. Also two cancers popping up, but so hard to ascribe that directly. Also two friends in with tachycardia, the docs said it was lag from covid. Likewise some rheumatoid flair-ups in 40's and 50's chaps, and IBS in a 19 year old. A long-tail of issues. Oh and an annoying rash for my mum after her booster, and I don't mean me.
Vaccinating the control group should be a crime since they mandated these vaccines and made people take them that did not want them. This should not just be people losing their jobs this should be people going to jail.
“ let’s start in highly vaccinated iceland where, despite ~80% vaccination rates and over 50% of the population boosted, cases are literally exploding”
Is “despite” the correct word? “Due to” seems more accurate each day
This explains why they pivoted so quickly from the full vaccination campaign to the booster campaign. Unless I am mistaken, the phased age group rollouts also help perpetuate the sleight-of-hand by ensuring a perpetual cohort in the 2 week windows to forge the 'overall' effectiveness statistical fraud. I imagine that many people at the CDC or White House or state-level public health don't have the wherewithal to grasp this, so I have to assume they were carefully influenced to achieve this perpetual rolling new vaccination effect. Or did they manage that just with vaccine supply distribution?
Now imagine we are later trying to prove malfeasance in court against drug companies and regulators in order to hold them accountable. Just think carefully about the mental faculties, knowledge, and reasoning ability demonstrated by the Supreme Court justices regarding covid and the OSHA mandate.
-Expert Witness gato: "by counting a 2 week period against the previous group, you always produce a false efficacy rating, especially if that 2 week period is a unique window of vulnerability."
- Sotomayor: "Are you saying the vaccines don't work? Don't you know a 100,000 children are dying every second?"
-Breyer: "Indeed, over 800 billion Americans have caught covid this month alone."
Oh I forgot one other thing: this also explains why they created a 2 shot regimen in the first place. That lengthy period from shot 1 to shot 2+2 weeks can hide all sorts of things.
Excellent explanation. For another look at what I believe is a datacrime (ignoring survivorship bias), here is a look at how the UK is possibly misleading on the data on pregnancy & vaccines: https://inumero.substack.com/p/uk-vaccines-and-pregnancy-part-3
I have been complaining about the abuse of this move since the summer. Measure cases one way and population size a completely different way to rig VE. It drives me bananas.
A close second is "age-adjusted VE" with some undisclosed adjustments.
VE should be used in tandem with other things, like absolute and relative growth rates.
I've pointed this out time and time again. This is part of how the trick is done with rates per 100k, the unvaccinated cohort gets smaller and the vaccinated bigger while the vaccinated cases count as unvaccinated. It's fraud. There are dozens of problems with it and no honest person thinks it is fine. The fact governments and scientists all over the world are ok with it shows that none of them are honest.
another trick is that number of unvaccinated is never public and always approximation
This is completely false
https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations_vacc-people-onedose-pop-5yr
I don't see a single mention of non-jabbed on the page you linked. Where is it?
Subtract the total population from the figures. You are either some degree of vaccinated or not.
They know not to bite the hand that feeds them. $cientists.
I have been explaining this to my friends who are Doctors, and they can't even do the simple math to understand it. They did all go to California public schools and colleges so that probably explains it.
I have and have had a number of doctor-clients (I'm a CPA), and many of them are innumerate.
As far as I can tell, the only math most doctors understand is "How much does that luxury asset cost?"
(I suppose they also have a basic understanding that licensing more doctors would reduce their take home pay, and that's no bueno.)
I hope they're innumerable, for your business' sake.
Well, their numbers dwindle as area hospitals buy up independent practices...but then I at least still have them as individual clients if not as business clients any longer.
It's bloody embarrassing.
My wife is a surgeon (and edits a surgical journal) and is very much "not a math person." My kids ask me (physics background) for help with their math homework.
I used to teach AP Calculus in HS and was a tutor in college while being a Math/Physics/Chem major so I had ample exposure to a wide variety of "smart people"... high GPAs, in everything but math...
My favorite group of kids by far to joke with was those who were going into Medicine. About 2 weeks into a new semester the Pre-med kids would come piling in scared stiff from their college algebra and college physics courses...
"Look Math is easy. But there's only 3 kinds of people in this world. Those who can do math and and those who can't."
Actually there are a variety of people with compensating skills. We who can figure simply must do a better job of making it simple enough to trust us. What our cat suggests is manipulation of data to create an outcome which is simply propaganda. Seven out of ten doctors told me so, have a Camel.
The private schools are shitty too.
I have a friend from Columbia and another from Yale who both forgot what statistics mean... It's like they only remembered for the tests
https://drsambailey.com/2022/01/05/why-nobody-can-find-a-virus/
So this is a version of Immortal Time Bias right?! This is huge! Honestly the best thing I've seen you write so far.
It seems like we should be able to model the rates of vaccination against the change in the Unvaccinated population and see if the "waning efficacy" is actually all this effect. Because as fewer people get vaccinated and pollute the Unvaccinated pool, the apparent efficacy will fade. I bet it's not the entire fading effect but it's part of it.
Also, cohort got changed to chortling in one spot.
I've looked at these numbers extensively where I live. What I see is that the effect of an active vaccination campaign on the observed efficacy against infection is obvious, it significantly and noisily boosts reported efficacy, but after those campaigns are finished you still see some efficacy that very steadily wanes down to nothing.
I can only conclude that after 2-doses plus a break-in period, there was indeed some efficacy to be eroded. But just because there was some efficacy after 2 doses against September's variants doesn't mean that there's efficacy after 3 doses of the same unimproved vaccine against today's more evolved variants. In fact, it's not even clear how much of the decline in efficacy can be attributed to declining effects of the drug on immune systems versus the virus steadily evolving to escape it.
I'd never heard of immortal time bias but that sounds exactly right:
https://catalogofbias.org/biases/immortal-time-bias/
Beautful! That link and this article are so utterly helpful. I have scratched my head for months trying to think of how the stats presented to the genearl public have accounted for the two week time lag. This article explains how the stats presented have NOT accounted for the two week period and how they have in fact used a predictable statistical bias to manufactor false VE numbers. It is shocking! What I remember most from my stats classes is the axiom "Stats Lie" It is the most important concept in my opinion. I am always suspicious but this is far worse than I imagined.
Incredible analysis. No one will ever be fully vaccinated so the powers that be can keep profiting. The live medical experiment will continue until we the people put an end to it.
Agreed, just as the fully vaxxed definitions change, no one can be allowed to be part of the control group.
"And I would have gotten away with it too, if it weren't for you meddling cats and your control group"
The model is simple: theoretically fabricate a 'new disease' and then cause real disease with the novel 'treatment'.
Call the 'new disease' a 'variant' and keep the Covid Crazy Train rolling all the way to the bank.
"Simulate the action. Stimulate the desired outcome."
The mRNA drug triggers toxic stress, the body releases exosomes during inflammation-detoxification-apoptosis, the exosomes are falsely labelled 'viral rna' and amplified by misuse of PCR.
More injections/drugs prescribed, more toxicity.
And on and on it goes.
The goal is to include and thus hide the many variable disease conditions directly caused by the mRNA injection behind false 'covid' PCR diagnoses, providing a never-ending self-fulfilling pretext for more injections and more false contagion restrictions.
Our method gives us one conclusion, the truth: 'Covid' is a hoax.
Independent analysis by Norman Fenton on the same thing, the effects of the two week delay.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6umArFc-fdc
The data collection mechanisms they have in place are - to anyone with experience in doing such systems analysis - laughably bad and obviously really are intentional obfuscation and cheating. It's heads we win, tails you lose - well it was meant to be anyway, but now things are so bad even with a biased coin they can't maintain it.
Here is the blog in case people want to read it too. Been out for a while. https://probabilityandlaw.blogspot.com/2021/12/the-impact-of-misclassifying-deaths-in.html?m=1
Vaccinating into a pandemic with a non-sterilizing shot that makes the recipient more susceptible to the disease is genocide.
Proof is:
1. The 2-week assignment of shot status
2. Ending the study at 6 months as effectiveness wanes
3. Boosting without studying
Question is, what do we do now?
Like a shark that can't stop swimming, this predatory system must keep moving to survive.
The faster it jabs, the stronger it gets. Stops and it dies.
that is presumably why French President wants to "piss off" the unvaxxed.
Except we know that Sharks can and do stop swimming now.
Some, the great whites, for instance, can't.
https://www.britannica.com/story/do-sharks-really-die-if-they-stop-swimming
Thanks I knew and forgot this, so I leveled back on up reading. My family (wife/rang of kids) is remaining all jab-free and certain we're sadly going to bite our lips on a lot of "I told you so's" - I ran out of saliva trying to stop my wider circles getting 2-3 jabs. Already had a tragedy just outside my regular contact field, albeit none of my friends will ascribe it so even though he had clots followed by rapid organ failure and was an ox of 47 year old. RIP. Also two cancers popping up, but so hard to ascribe that directly. Also two friends in with tachycardia, the docs said it was lag from covid. Likewise some rheumatoid flair-ups in 40's and 50's chaps, and IBS in a 19 year old. A long-tail of issues. Oh and an annoying rash for my mum after her booster, and I don't mean me.
Vaccinating the control group should be a crime since they mandated these vaccines and made people take them that did not want them. This should not just be people losing their jobs this should be people going to jail.
Prison, not jail. Jail doesn't have a death-row.
Will read later. But you say:
“ let’s start in highly vaccinated iceland where, despite ~80% vaccination rates and over 50% of the population boosted, cases are literally exploding”
Is “despite” the correct word? “Due to” seems more accurate each day
The same people who quote these numbers also insist the only reliable trial data is from Gold Standard Random Controlled Trials.
But then they ignore them when it comes to masks.
This explains why they pivoted so quickly from the full vaccination campaign to the booster campaign. Unless I am mistaken, the phased age group rollouts also help perpetuate the sleight-of-hand by ensuring a perpetual cohort in the 2 week windows to forge the 'overall' effectiveness statistical fraud. I imagine that many people at the CDC or White House or state-level public health don't have the wherewithal to grasp this, so I have to assume they were carefully influenced to achieve this perpetual rolling new vaccination effect. Or did they manage that just with vaccine supply distribution?
Now imagine we are later trying to prove malfeasance in court against drug companies and regulators in order to hold them accountable. Just think carefully about the mental faculties, knowledge, and reasoning ability demonstrated by the Supreme Court justices regarding covid and the OSHA mandate.
-Expert Witness gato: "by counting a 2 week period against the previous group, you always produce a false efficacy rating, especially if that 2 week period is a unique window of vulnerability."
- Sotomayor: "Are you saying the vaccines don't work? Don't you know a 100,000 children are dying every second?"
-Breyer: "Indeed, over 800 billion Americans have caught covid this month alone."
-Thomas: [picard face palm]
Oh I forgot one other thing: this also explains why they created a 2 shot regimen in the first place. That lengthy period from shot 1 to shot 2+2 weeks can hide all sorts of things.
Data manipulation is always intentional. My first boss told us, tell me your starting point and I will tell you what you are trying to sell me.
Excellent explanation. For another look at what I believe is a datacrime (ignoring survivorship bias), here is a look at how the UK is possibly misleading on the data on pregnancy & vaccines: https://inumero.substack.com/p/uk-vaccines-and-pregnancy-part-3
I’m sure glad we have the cat to do the maths. Those feline toes & fingers are good!
I have been complaining about the abuse of this move since the summer. Measure cases one way and population size a completely different way to rig VE. It drives me bananas.
A close second is "age-adjusted VE" with some undisclosed adjustments.
VE should be used in tandem with other things, like absolute and relative growth rates.