Adjusting for population growth would only make sense if the demographic that grew was not young. I've been hearing a lot about immigration in Sweden, and immigrants tend to be younger and have more kids.
2020 is clearly an outlier on the all-cause mortality graph that I made, with 3x as many deaths in the COVID peak as the 2018 flu peak. Then there was another unusually large peak going into 2021. There is no summer peak.
I did visit Twitter earlier in the year, and it was pretty clear that a number of voices were working hard to show graphs that made the 2020 rise in Sweden seem like noise. That is not science.
you're not even adjusting that for population growth and that kind of overly smoothed baselining ALWAYS shows misleading peaks.
you're really mishandling the data here and mistaking shifted seasonalities for actual excess deaths.
modeling as you are means that a summer (vs a winter) pandemic will always look huge because it's vs a traditionally low baseline.
what you really need to know is AUC.
try following @haraldofworld
he can show you how to do this for real.
Adjusting for population growth would only make sense if the demographic that grew was not young. I've been hearing a lot about immigration in Sweden, and immigrants tend to be younger and have more kids.
2020 is clearly an outlier on the all-cause mortality graph that I made, with 3x as many deaths in the COVID peak as the 2018 flu peak. Then there was another unusually large peak going into 2021. There is no summer peak.
I did visit Twitter earlier in the year, and it was pretty clear that a number of voices were working hard to show graphs that made the 2020 rise in Sweden seem like noise. That is not science.