which part of the disease season you vaccinate in matters. it determines how much risk you are accelerating in the 2 week window of negative VE.
“I would be very surprised if the U.S. data don't turn out to be ultimately very similar to the Israeli data,” - Anthony Fauci, according to Politico.
Perhaps Fauci will finally have a prediction come true?
What happened in Mongolia? They were doing fine until they started injecting people.
If you're right, we're in for some unpleasantness this fall in northern U.S. Boosters full steam ahead, smack into what is surely about to be a seasonal upswing. Don't need a crystal ball, just looking at fall 2020 and expecting the same. Duck and cover!
and there's a perversity where mandates/rollouts may have been timed to coincide with a peak - to attempt to ride the decline as a veneration of said measure
So Walensky overrules the CDC panel clearing the way for boosters for pretty much everyone over 18. This is science.
The Northeast is about to become ground zero for death and destruction as these absolute morons unleash a booster campaign right as their season begins. If your thesis holds true and the boosters amplify risk significantly (during a period of rising trends), we are all in big trouble.
Have you seen this? Looks like a complete different reporting system through WHO reporting way more adverse reactions than VAERS.
"pushing vaccines (and seemingly boosters) during periods of peak disease appears ill advised."
That,s what Vanden Bossche said feom the beginning.
Nice Freudian slip:
"excess ----morality---- bottomed and rebounded in both places right about when vaccination campaigns started to gather steam in late feb."
Loving the content, cat man.
a little off topic but nice to see the idiot public health people get dunked on...
Im sorry if I missed this, but is the immune suppression period limited to only post dose one or both doses? Many thanks.
Me encanta la claridad de las explicaciones del Gato Malo.
So Israel's boosters, coming in late summer/autumn is not the worst time but the US rollout as the northern states enter their peak season could be catastrophic?
I agree excess morality did bottom but not in Denmark or Sweden and hasn't come back yet.
Thanks for all the analysis. More pairwise analysis here:
Great analysis. You could have stayed closer to home and compared Canada (late to vaccinate) with the US and UK (both early to vaccinate). Those results support very strongly the hypothesis that timing of vaccination is very important.
"further, while sweden and denmark practically touch, their key population centers (stockholm and copenhagen) are 4 degrees of latitude apart."
Not sure if this is relevant. Latitude is not a very good proxy for climate, reason for which the French king made the mistake of telling his subjects to colonise Quebec, which, according to the map, was at the same latitude as France (they did not anticipate the harsh winters there).
I may be wrong but Copenhagen and Stockholm being both on the Baltic Sea, the climate there should be fairly similar (i.e. wet and cold shitty weather)