186 Comments

I can’t believe how well informed you are and how well you explain it all. Thanks for all the good you do.

Expand full comment

Sadly, the more this becomes apparent the more that many jabbed persons will support mandatory jabbing of the vaxx-free out of unconscious spite.

Expand full comment

Oh it’s very conscious. Vicious nasty spiteful jab those ungrateful bastards, type hate. Covidians do not tolerate the blasphemy of our rejection of the all mighty jab.

Expand full comment

my sweet cousin (age 45?) in Austria informed me that everyone is triple jabbed there. Then he told me about the "right wing anti vaxx protestors" filling the streets how terrible hahaha boo hoo

I do not engage....

Expand full comment

I was told that most of the youth in my area were first in line for the booster like it was a new "shoe drop" for some stupid over priced Nike runners.

The mind laundry is complete on a lot of people. They can't quit the cult now. They've got too much invested in it. They will go to their graves from ADE or any of the other medium term side effects saying "It wasn't the vaccine".

Expand full comment

Does your cousin know your opinion?

I tell mind-laundered (thanks TRM for the term), that I have been on protests against the mandates.

That leaves them uncomfortable and not knowing what to say, as they have ignored the mandates question.

Expand full comment

I guess she supports the jailing/fining of the unvaccinated?

Expand full comment

"now, the folks that get sick due to immune suppression from the booster get lumped not into the unvaxxed, but into the double vaxxed." The chickens are coming home to roost - I'm expecting full suppression of that type of data moving forward.

On a different note, it would be interesting to break out the unvaxxed into naturally immune and naive. I expect that natural immunity is the cause for the low rate there, and the naive are driving the cases.

Expand full comment

Yep. In Ontario they announced they'd no longer report "cases" and PCRs would only be available in high-risk settings. On December 29th, 78% of the "cases" were in the double-vaxxed showing zero efficacy for the shots. They couldn't be having that percentage keep trending up, given that "abstainers" are locked out of society and basically prisoners, as we can't get on planes, trains or ferries. Fun-times.

Expand full comment

I’ve heard from a Bay Area hospital asking their employees not to take PCR tests. Only rapid tests if you’re symptomatic… looks like they’re trying to underreport cases all of the sudden….

Expand full comment

Newest data from the government of Ontario seems to show HIGHER infection rates in the "fully vaccinated" -- about 80/100,000 vaccinated people versus 60/100,000 unvaccinated. https://covid-19.ontario.ca/data/case-numbers-and-spread

Expand full comment

It is possible to look at the data on that page in age-brackets, and then all of them have higher unvaxinated case rates than do the vaxinated. Either they have a graph color problem or it is one of those Simpson-paradoxes...

Expand full comment

Note the dates on the x-axis. The age-specific graphs only go up to October 24th, while the "all ages" graph goes up to December 31st--i.e. it includes Omicron. The data only tipped over around December 24th and diverged widely in a very short period of time. Interestingly, the government of Ontario has announced that they are going to stop reporting this data of of now. One wonders why.

Expand full comment

Thanks for clearing that up. It is damned near impossible not fall in one of their creative presentation traps! Why on earth would they not present data per age-bracket after October? Hiding information does not increase credibility, but I guess they don't fear accountability...

Expand full comment

I would sarcastically note that their claimed case rate for unvaccinated 80 year olds at 827.1 per 100,000, compared to 0.4 for double jabbed, shows that they did a terrible job of persuading the over 80's to take the pfizertoxin.

Also that the case rate for that age group more than tripled between the 23rd Oct and the 24th showing that their restrictions are doing a grand job.

Expand full comment

Are they going to continue reporting deaths and hospitalizations?

Expand full comment

Yes, as far as I know. This was just announced yesterday, so the transition to the "new" way of reporting isn't in place yet. We shall see. The health minister didn't include any breakdown in status in her reporting today, however another tweeter did. The trend continues. Over 80% in the "double" vaxxed today.

Expand full comment

they are stalling while figuring out how to spin it in their favor (of course dishonestly, as we all know)

Expand full comment

Bummer! I just discovered the chart a few days ago and have been watching it since. The flip a week or two ago since omicron is very dramatic.

https://covid-19.ontario.ca/data/case-numbers-and-spread

Expand full comment

Right? It was the one piece of evidence we had for jab failure and getting rid of passport/waking up the sleepers. Poof. Gone.

Expand full comment

...not planning on leaving my foxhole.

Expand full comment

My foxhole is well shielded with a winter's worth stockpile of quercetin, D3, zinc, C, melatonin &, should I still get hit, a nebulizer, h2o2, iver & prednisone. Being rural, the social isolation, fresh air, & exercise are year round...

So go ahead, evil feline, blast away!

Expand full comment

i spent many hours over 3 days with my kid's family, extended family and friends during Christmas in close quarters. Eight of them (at least 5 vaxxed) have gotten covid and are feeling bad. I am unvaxxed, healthy and take lots of supplements (quercetin, D, C, etc.) and today (day 6), I still have no symptoms. Hmmmm

Expand full comment

well now that they are saying 5 days is long enough, I guess I'm free and clear, moving into day 7 with no symptoms...isn't that that something? smart pharma folks ....pfffst (cat speak?)

Expand full comment

Me too. I have a shelf full of early treatments so I'm ready for you kitty- Rona! 😻

I'm not rural and I'm a little younger than you, but I want to stay out of the hospital because if I happen to get a bad case, I think my odds of healing would go down considerably.

Expand full comment

I gotta upgrade my foxhole. Yours sounds so much more roomy.

Expand full comment

Being a bioweapon we don't know long term effects of Omicron, so I am keeping my head down in the foxhole for a bit.

Don't know when to make a run for it.

Expand full comment

The vax is the actual bioweapon. I agree with Dr Mike Yeadon here. They are unlikely to release a truly virulent virus. It could too easily kill them too.

Expand full comment

who knows? you'll know when they do make the move, look for the white space suits and helmets, then you will know to run into your bunker, take your kids/family and kitties with you, lock tight.

Expand full comment

Bioweapons all round.

Expand full comment

The smallpox thing would be a real bummer though, if they were silly enough.

Hopefully it was just "rumour control" being overzealous.

Expand full comment

You probably don't even need those first nine!

Expand full comment

Probably not, but live alone, pushing 70, rural with farm animals dependent on me. Got the flu in '18. Would have been easy except caring for livestock in -20F winter, lugging buckets of hot water & mash 3x/day from kitchen, cleanup, etc. By day 3 didn't think I'd make it. Day 4 praying to God to just take me already.

So this year, flu, c19 whatever it takes.

Expand full comment

I say it all the time (including just this morning btw ;)...ppl raised on/living on farms are the healthiest, strongest, most reliable, hard-working, people in the world. God bless you!🙏🏻♥️

Expand full comment

where do you procure quercetin, ivermectin and prednisone?

Expand full comment

Quercitin at any vitamin place. Budenoside I sent my ‘healthcare provider’ a note that I supposedly have asthma and asked to a refill of symbicort 😝

Expand full comment

You can make your own Quercetin, which IIRC is similar to hydroxychloroquine and quinine which is in tonic water.

Quercetin recipes

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dvtmf_pYll4

https://jabberweb.co.uk/home-made-hcq/

https://godskingdom.org/blog/2020/08/homemade-hcq-quinine

Expand full comment

Go on the FLCCC Alliance of ICU doctors website. Call an FLCCC provider in your area. They will help you.

Order Quertecin and nigella stativa and all the other immune boosting vitamins from Amazon or a vitamin store like Pure Encapsulations. It is easy.

Expand full comment

I recommend lef.org as they have a black cumin seed oil (nigella sativa) combined with curcumin. Their multivitamin "Mix" has almost everything else. Top up with D3, slow release melatonin and whatever else you feel like.

Great quality and price and operates as a non-profit to fund life extending technology research.

Expand full comment

Quercetin online from health food stores. Also available from gnc.

Iver online. Some got via india mart, tho it might be too late. I've read they're starting to open/destroy in customs. You can get scripts via FLCC docs, will need to fill at small struggling pharmacy. In one state, walk in w/out script from a compounding pharma.

Prednisone leftover from cancer treatment of now deceased dog.

Expand full comment

Quercetin is available online at Amazon or any supplement store.

Expand full comment

I'll join u🏋️🏋️

Expand full comment

Seems that decided to wait and see what happens made the right choice.

Expand full comment

As soon as one of my "friends" saw the first graph out of the Pfizer study (the one that shows cumulative probability of infection), he said "Well that proves it, there is no debate left" and badgered my other friend into getting vaccinated as well (he got myocarditis 3 days after vaccination and then later got COVID). Almost like gathering more information on a complex issue in order to make an informed decision was the wiser choice instead of taking Pfizer at their word that this vax is safe, effective, and long-lasting (implied when you call something effective).

Expand full comment

Glad you mention this ! INdeed, very safe and very effective - depending on what you call that, of course LOL

Expand full comment

effective...at killing people

Expand full comment

We say this almost every day!

Expand full comment

they want to eliminate any control group. We will be the evidence they can't hide from.

Expand full comment

(Ontario,Canada Dec.31,2021)Of the cases reported today, 13,436 infections were found in those who are fully vaccinated, 2,278 were in unvaccinated individuals, and 647 were in those who are partially vaccinated. The vaccination status of the remaining 352 cases is unknown.

Right now, of the 1,144 patients in hospital -- up 179 over yesterday’s total -- 536 patients are fully vaccinated, 236 are unvaccinated, and 42 are partially vaccinated. No vaccination information was provided for the remaining patients.(Ontario is 80% fully vaxxed)

Expand full comment

How can anyone promote further vax with these statistics?

Expand full comment

The authorities keep pushing the vax because it is not about health & safety.

It is about fear & control. It always was.

The pandemic was just the packaging. Packaging is real, but it's not the product. It just makes the product look desirable.

Expand full comment

The bio attack on humanity continues while the cowards hide and make more poison while the media and politicians run interference for them. When, Where and How to counterattack is the question.

Expand full comment

The beatings will continue until morale improves.

Expand full comment

When they announced the drive for children's vaccinations in the fall as well as a push for boosters (because of the waning efficacy against Delta), I was concerned about the immunosuppressive effect and possible increase in cases and sure enough we are having another outbreak in cases (but they have it conveniently blamed on Omicron). I'd love to see some hard data on the possible connections though. As far as "mistaking this shift of risk for “booster efficacy.”", I'm not sure if the PH people don't want that mistake to happen, because then it gives "evidence" for people to want to get boosters. If a connection can be made, however, maybe some people will wake up and realize this will happen every booster season. One bias in the data--Most likely with the Omicron cold, many unvaxxed might not get tested because of the extreme pressure on them- they might not want to go public.

Expand full comment

There is also less reason for the unvaxxed to get tested if you live in a place with vaccine passports. You are limited where you can go which means that you are already basically stuck at home. So why bother testing?

Expand full comment

I really like this blog, and please don’t attack me (I am stressed out enough trying to figure this all out on my own), but one thing I see conspicuously absent here is the analysis of vaxx effect on death/hospitalizations. Isn’t this the explanation now, that the vax reduces mortality/severe outcomes? I realize this data is contaminated also, because of people dying with covid, not from covid, but whatever. The Canadian data from cocojo? in these comments suggests 20% of people in Canada unvaxxed, but 30% of all people in the hospital are unvaxxed. How many dead? Is this the rationale? I just find it hard to believe that medical authorities everywhere, from Puerto Rico to Japan, are playing some kind of game or are unable to understand basic math. Although, judging from what some of them say, maybe they are…

P.S. On an unrelated note, looking at the graph of an exponential rise in covid cases currently, I wonder how much different this graph could possibly look for the authorities to admit that masks don’t work.

Expand full comment

it's not an unreasonable question at all.

have done a fair bit of work on it in the past and they did seem to show some efficacy (at least for a time) on prior strains but a lot of the data i used to look at is is no longer available and has not yet been split out for omicron.

https://boriquagato.substack.com/p/properly-measuring-vaccine-efficacy

it looked like a ~40%ish impact on past strains.

it's just too early to see how the vaccines are affecting omi severity. there's no good data yet and strong reason to suspect that it may be more fully vaxx evading.

also, the heavy negative VE on cases means that even with lower CFR, you have higher change of having disease to you seed to do the full calc as (risk from infection X risk of infection)

BUT, the overall risk from omi is SO low that we run into the total vs % effect issue.

these vaccines have something like a 1.3% "required medical care" rate and a 0.4% hospitalization rate for a 2 dose course, higher from triple.

this is piled on top of something like a 30-40% "too sick for normal activity" rate.

some data here: https://boriquagato.substack.com/p/pfizer-says-their-covid-vaccine-works

these exceed the all in rates for the same in omi, so even at 100% VE, it's a net loser on cost benefit and given that these risks are ~90-99% lower for those lacking comorbidities it's a huge net loser there.

unless you have serious risk factors, i'm not even sure it's mathematically possible for these vaccines to provide a net benefit after AE risk with omi as the dominant variant.

masks have become a talisman/wubbie/tribal signifier. people are addicted. getting rid of them will not be easy despite the staggering evidence of their inefficacy.

Expand full comment

Thank you, I will look through your links. Also, the British study cited below is frankly scary. If it is borne out, things might get ugly.

Expand full comment

The first few DK omicron reports where showing the vax status for hospitalized. Then it "was disappeared" in the subsequent reports. A bit of research will probably show hosp. rate per vax status, albeit with an error bar that goes from heaven to hell.

Expand full comment

This is why the political argument has crystallized around vaccine mandates. Vaccine mandates can only rationally be argued if they reduce infections among the population. The data shows vaccinations have minimal impact. Therefore, a vaccine mandate is irrational irrespective of the fact that they are also illiberal.

If the public health bureaucrats wanted to encourage people to get vaccinated to “protect the hospitals”, they might have a rational position. But they don’t. The boosters are idiotic for anybody who is moderately healthy.

Expand full comment

..meanwhile, in Italy, on the 5th of January we will probably be dealing with an all workforce mandate fot these shitshots..."so that we can lead the path for other EU nations" ...I really want to cry..

Expand full comment

So the self employed are exempt?

Seems silly of me to ask it when of course they are exempt. Yes?

Our PM here in Ardern Archipelago likes to skite to the WEF too about her successes without having to actually shoot anyone.

Expand full comment

Of course they're exempt...NOT!! Everybody who's got contact with people (ex. Plumbers, electricians, builders..) need a vax passport to work

Expand full comment

Ugly and uglier. Need a parallel society.

Expand full comment

Since May of 2020 I've been of the opinion that the best, and possibly ONLY, valid data is total/excess deaths. They laid off a bunch of health care workers in my area because they would not submit to injection extortion then claimed ICU beds were full. They closed HALF due to staff shortages. That type of systemic manipulation is so common.

Having el gato et al try to sort out and make sense of other data is great.

Expand full comment

I think we're coming to that, and will we be getting good data on excess deaths between vaccinated and unvaccinated people over the next year? 🤔

Expand full comment

Guess I found a sort of an answer here:

https://alexberenson.substack.com/p/vaccines-dont-stop-covid-hospitalizations

If this analys is true, then all in all, vax is barely useful, and almost certainly net harmful for healthy young males.

Expand full comment

Just read the study name. Omg

Expand full comment

Very interesting thanks for posting

Expand full comment

I thought of that post (and referenced study) as I read your comment. So far I haven't seen any other analysis of the study beside Berenson's, so there is no point / counter-point with which to evaluate Berenson's conclusion. I know I have questions, but I don't know whom to ask.

Expand full comment

Yeah, same here. Where do we get answers?

Expand full comment

Time will tell. There's a huge number of comments over there to wade through, and someone might have something. Eventually, I hope, Alex's opinion will draw enough attention that some mainstreamer will have to address it, and then we'll start seeing debate. It probably won't be pretty.

Expand full comment

I don’t know how much time we have. I have two healthy teenage boys, both at a statistically negligent risk of covid complications, but in the highest risk group for myocarditis. I am waiting for the axe of mandatory boosters to drop. And then another booster? Then another? All the while playing a roulette game with myocarditis. I know people say resist, but if we do, my kids will have to drop out of college, out of everything they are doing, and sit alone in their rooms. How is this good for their mental health?

By the way, that study itself ended up recommending more vaxxes. Are we stupid or are they afraid?

Expand full comment

There is a pretty clear signal that points to the vax harming more than saving. Even looking at the pfizer trials themselves. But that coupled with VAERS data points to a very high likelihood that they are doing more harm than good (you should look into https://stevekirsch.substack.com/ as he does a good job at going over this). And when you step back and see each side (pro vax: has nothing to lose but everything to gain vs hesitant: everything to lose and nothing to gain) it makes the choice obvious to me. There are a lot of theories as to what this is all about (depopulation, mind control, injecting nano tech) but at the end of the day that stuff is theory. What we can know for certain is that we have been lied to over and over by corrupt authorities and we can be certain these vaccines are not safe and only maybe marginally effective for a very short window. We can be certain there is a push for totalitarian control under a one world government. If we give in there is no hope. But I totally understand how they make it very very difficult not to. At the end of the day it should be your choice and your kid’s choices. It’s not fair to mandate something that is proven to be dangerous and hardly effective. But it does seem that the best way to combat it all is to resist.

Expand full comment

You definitely have my sympathy. I have no skin in this game. I'm retired, and I don't have to follow any "mandates". Yes, saying, "Resist" is easier than actually resisting in many instances.

On the other hand, your kids can always return to college when this is over (which might take a year or so) or when there's a better vaccine or proven treatment or something better than the junk we've been fed.

But, again, you have my sympathy.

Expand full comment

There are some Christian colleges (accredited) requiring no covid vaxes where the students are getting to live a normal college life except they have to go to a special dorm temporarily if they get covid.

Even if not a Christian, this is what I'd recommend for young people now. We originally had different plan for our teens' college, but now once she finishes community college remotely (to save money), a freedom-preserving college is all we'd consider now. It does tend to be the more conservative Christian colleges though, not the more liberal ones.

Expand full comment

There are some Christian colleges (accredited) requiring no covid vaxes where the students are getting to live a normal college life except they have to go to a special dorm temporarily if they get covid.

Even if not a Christian, this is what I'd recommend for young people now. We originally had different plan for our teens' college, but now once she finishes community college remotely (to save money), a freedom-preserving college is all we'd consider now. It does tend to be the more conservative Christian colleges though, not the more liberal ones.

Expand full comment

I often wonder this too and make this argument. I would like to see it with deaths. Also I would think vaxed cases would be higher because they have less restrictions. Which still proves the vaccine does not work to stop spread, but some they admit that and make the argument it prevents deaths, I would be more curious to l see data on deaths.

Expand full comment

Yeah, I think that's a pretty complex issue with a few variables.

Medical authorities everywhere are under different pressures to follow the corporate- government-WHO narrative. These pressures have to do with money, being vilified, losing their jobs and medical licenses, and being censored so all that they risk may not even be widely heard. There's a monetary pressure, the fact they get more money from covid illnesses. There's a psychological pressure to not go against the tide and be vilified in the media. A risk their jobs and medical licenses if they speak against the narrative, so they would need to risk their whole education and beloved career to speak out. Those that do speak out around the world get heavily censored by US Media, so it's hard to hear the whole truth. All of these pressures put together tip the tide, or shift the current towards following the corporate government narrative.

But I think it's a very complex assessment, and good data is hard to come by. There are many moving, changing variables that make it hard to track.

One variable is most of the population in 2020- early 2021 was unvaccinated. The United States didn't reach a 50% vaccinated rate until May 2021. So when Joe Biden said "99% of the people in the hospital were unvaccinated", of course they were. He was using early 2021 numbers and a vast majority of the US was unvaccinated. In the months of September through December of this year, US states and the CDC stopped reporting the monthly raw numbers of people admitted to the hospital and dying of covid, because most of these were vaccinated. It was showing that it didn't matter whether you take the vaccine or not, you had an equal chance of going in the hospital. Vermont reported theit September numbers only because a local reporter asked about it.

Vermont, 76% of people who died of covid in Sept are vaccinated.

https://vermontdailychronicle.com/2021/09/30/76-of-september-covid-19-deaths-are-vaxxed-breakthroughs/amp/?__twitter_impression=true. I'm quite certain if most of the people hospitalized and dying in the winter US months, States and the CDC would still be giving these raw vaccinated and unvaccinated numbers.

Another variable is changing vaccine efficacy, the fact that any benefit the vaccine gives changes over time. The vaccine makes people vulnerable immediately after taking it, and if they're hospitalized or die in the first 6 weeks, they're counted as unvaccinated. Then the vaccine seems to help for a while, so it's about a 40% benefit (according to El Cato), so vaccinated people have a 40% less chance of being in the hospital are dying compared to those who aren't vaccinated, for a 2 to 4 month period. Then the vaccine wanes and seems to provides no benefit.

Another variable is the accuracy of what hospitals are reporting. Some nurses and physicians assistants are coming on record saying that most people in the hospital are actually vaccinated, but the hospital administrator or corporate owner doesn't want to go against the corporate- government narrative of "hospitals filled with unvaccinated people". If they go against the narrative, they would get vilified by the corporate media, as so many others have. They also could lose Medicare funding, and that's a lot of hospital business. Here's a physician's assistant in New York talking about most people in the hospital being vaccinated. https://mnfan.org/2021/09/21/hospitalist-these-patients-deserve-to-be-heard-vaers-whistleblower-deborah-conrad-pa/. I've seen some other nurses come out and talk about hospitals filled with vaccinated people dealing with noticeable increases in heart, clotting and cancer issues. Not many will talk in front of a camera because they will lose their job if they do.

Another variable is how deaths are being reported on death certificates. Many doctors have said there is pressure to put covid as the primary cause of death, and if a person dies of covid in the hospital the hospital gets extra money for a covid death.

https://fee.org/articles/physicians-say-hospitals-are-pressuring-er-docs-to-list-covid-19-on-death-certificates-here-s-why/

https://twitter.com/killingsworth_l/status/1281576148204507142?s=20

In a county here in California, they removed 40% of "covid deaths" just with a soft audit, because the people obviously died of something else. So how many people have really died of covid is hard to say, thus how many people have died of covid vaccinated or unvaccinated is hard to say too.

Another variable is vaccine injuries. Any doctor that comes out and talks about vaccine injuries gets fired if they are connected with a hospital or university system. So hospitals may not recognize side effects, or are not being honest about how many vaccinated people are in the hospital with them. But some nurses and doctors have:

https://aaronsiri.substack.com/p/one-brave-icu-physician-reporting

https://rumble.com/vmr2rx-september-20-2021.html

https://rumble.com/voog5r-nurse-blows-whistle-vaxx-injuries-exploding-serious-heart-issues.html

There are many other nurses reporting on Telegram, not in front of a camera, so they don't lose their job.

So that's how I'm understanding all the different variables. 💕

Expand full comment

I understand, and thank you. However, they did find heart inflammation with mrna, and blood clots with vector vaxxes. So they did speak up. Why speak up on those two issues, but not on others? Just trying to see logic somewhere, but maybe there isn’t any.

Expand full comment

They didn't speak up. They were dragged kicking and screaming the whole way by a few honest doctors & researchers. Only when the authorities are faced with so much evidence that denying it is obvious to even the most cult indoctrinated do they move the goalposts and try try again.

Expand full comment

Yeah, trying to find logic within this kind of human system isn't easy! 😄Logic is not often the primary motivator behind people's actions and behavior.

Some healthcare professionals and scientists spoke up on heart inflammation and blood clots, but it was at a cost to their careers and reputation. It is these same people who are speaking up about the other issues.

A majority of healthcare practitioners are not speaking publicly on heart issues, blood clots or any other factor that goes against the corporate government narrative. So the information landscape is still pretty bifurcated. Those aligning with the corporate government narrative won't publicly talk with those not aligned, so the two information streams stay separate. Perhaps you are trying to put the two streams together to make sense of the whole picture...?

Expand full comment

Gato una cosita mas... if you check the data in countries where different ages where given vaccines (any dose) at different dates (firs the old then the not so old etc) you will find that all reason mortality in EACH COHORT increases right after the vaccination starts. So this is also a very interesting signal ....

Expand full comment

Very good analysis as usual but way too small sample. Perhaps UK will give better insight as they are dealing now with 230K + cases. While boosters help out the older generation in death and hospitalisation stats, starting now vaccination is madness and just adding petrol into fire.

Expand full comment

Well I mean subtleties aside, the "vaccinated" infection risk figures are one hell of an elephant in the room. So if even biofascist Germany's official numbers show lower incidence among the unvaxxed, it would be /very interesting indeed/ to see some computation of the overall risk the unvaxxed actually pose of "overwhelming the health service", since that seems to be the pandemicists' new fall-back position to justify biofascism in the face of its own premises falling to bits...

Expand full comment

This ain’t something reported in the big media.

Expand full comment

I haven't ever added my voice to the conversations here I've been watching since March of 2020, but this post brings up something I've been convinced of for the last couple of months - I think there's selection bias at play here on a large scale. These aren't large randomized testing groups - it's people going to get tested for the most part (or maybe being tested at a hospital). I know for myself, I've never gotten a single test through all this. I've been sick on some level several times. Those of is who've chosen to forego the vaccine are obviously the ones least concerned about covid overall as a risk. So we're less likely to get tested when we get sick. If you're worried about covid to the point of getting tested when you're sick, you definitely got vaccinated. Once data gets to the point of knowing if it's Delta or omicron, you're surely selecting down to people who were worried enough to go beyond a home test, etc. Definitely vaccinated.

Thoughts?

Expand full comment

Yes, that is a major confounding variable, at least in terms of non-hospitalized. I believe anyone entering the hospital for any reason (e.g., a knee injury) is tested, thereby somewhat mitigating that confounding variable.

Expand full comment

I think you may be onto something. It is reasonable to me also that those who have not taken the vaccines would prefer to stay away from any official testing sites where they'll have to register their contact information and vaccination status. I know that is true for me.

I also assume, however, that many vaccinated and boosted are now testing at home, and thus not included in the official count. Or they're not testing, either, because omicron is seriously mild and most people really don't want to have to isolate.

Expand full comment

I don't agree with this completely. I am totally anti-vax, as is my family, but the conditions for travelling/going to work/sport school etc. if unvaxxed are so harsh now (only after being tested - or you are even not allowed to go to university any more, even if tested - case of my son in South Germany) that I would opine that lots of anti-vaxxers get tested regularly. I would think I got tested around 40 times already. Plus: for us, there is nothing more important than to finally get the positive result so we get the euphemistic "EU Covid safe pass" and have some peace from all the shit during 6 months.... therefore we test for each little cold :-(

Expand full comment

Thanks for your work. Very informative. Since the EUA in the US ends on January 15th, thinking the fear porn will be cranked up even more.

Expand full comment

It's happening thanks to Omicron. What angers me the most are the universities already requiring boosters. Ruining young people's health in the long run. So immoral.

Expand full comment