The impact of the previously infected (naturally immunity) is really gnawing at me. The numbers from the outbreak in the southern US states did not add up for me. The previous estimates of an R0 of 3 had to be wrong (the spread was much less than originally estimated) OR the vaccine must be causing spread and/or the Delta variant was m…
The impact of the previously infected (naturally immunity) is really gnawing at me. The numbers from the outbreak in the southern US states did not add up for me. The previous estimates of an R0 of 3 had to be wrong (the spread was much less than originally estimated) OR the vaccine must be causing spread and/or the Delta variant was more infectious. Even if Delta is as infectious as they now estimate (R0 of 8?), it does not explain why younger people were getting a lot more sick than they were at the same time a year earlier (if we are to believe the vaccinated vs non vaccinated data).
The faulty testing regime has really made a mess of this (significant understatement).
From where I sit in TN I can tell you my observations on what has been happening over the last 4-6 weeks. In that time I have personally seen far more cases of Covid than at any point over the last 18 months - including the winter months. I *personally* know of at least twenty people who have recently had Covid compared to perhaps half of that number in all of the months prior. Well over 70% of those have been double-vaxxed - and most all of them have had symptoms though none have been hospitalized. In casual conversation with others this seems to be roughly in alignment with their own observations. Is that all an artifact of having not been hit as hard as other states over the last 18 months or have the vaccines perhaps accelerated the spread or could it be that Delta is simply far more contagious and is driving the higher community spread? I honestly do not know, but I can say for certain that the vaccines have fallen far short of their promise. I also know that I’ve not heard of a single person who’s previously had Covid who has been reinfected.
Chanelling vanden Bossche but probably mangling a term or two, suppression of innate immunity via residual antibodies outcompeting innate / toll mediated engagement leading to a back-footed response (which is nonetheless competent at inhibiting viral shedding into the blood stream, for now). Question is, should we call it ADE-lite or ADE Zero.
I think the only reasonable explanation is double vaxxed low symptom person are infectious and spreading all over the place.
R rates for cases in vaxxed and uvaxxed rates are similar. Age groups all have similar R regardless of vaccination %. That most testing is on symptomatic people (unvaxxed are far more likely to have symptoms) explains the raw number disparity observed outside of the UK.
R looks similar or even less than prior waves. Looking at India (where vaccinations didn't complicate the data) there is no chance Delta has an R0 much different than 2.5-3.0. The width and peak is that of a normal R0~2.7.
Difficult to gage RO in India because of the possibility of many infected symptomatic and fatal cases not being recorded. ( excess deaths appear to show that this was substantial. Relative to population their testing was a bit low, yet at one point was reported to be north of 15. The good news is that after government sponsored Ivermectin roll out, the positive rate dropped more then 99 percent to .01!
Weekly or bi monthly random sample testing by health departments would provide so much valuable data. That health departments outside of the UK still have done no such thing after 18months is simply criminal.
The impact of the previously infected (naturally immunity) is really gnawing at me. The numbers from the outbreak in the southern US states did not add up for me. The previous estimates of an R0 of 3 had to be wrong (the spread was much less than originally estimated) OR the vaccine must be causing spread and/or the Delta variant was more infectious. Even if Delta is as infectious as they now estimate (R0 of 8?), it does not explain why younger people were getting a lot more sick than they were at the same time a year earlier (if we are to believe the vaccinated vs non vaccinated data).
The faulty testing regime has really made a mess of this (significant understatement).
From where I sit in TN I can tell you my observations on what has been happening over the last 4-6 weeks. In that time I have personally seen far more cases of Covid than at any point over the last 18 months - including the winter months. I *personally* know of at least twenty people who have recently had Covid compared to perhaps half of that number in all of the months prior. Well over 70% of those have been double-vaxxed - and most all of them have had symptoms though none have been hospitalized. In casual conversation with others this seems to be roughly in alignment with their own observations. Is that all an artifact of having not been hit as hard as other states over the last 18 months or have the vaccines perhaps accelerated the spread or could it be that Delta is simply far more contagious and is driving the higher community spread? I honestly do not know, but I can say for certain that the vaccines have fallen far short of their promise. I also know that I’ve not heard of a single person who’s previously had Covid who has been reinfected.
I know some ones, but I'm afraid they have been tested with fake PCR. These have never been detecting only covid19
Chanelling vanden Bossche but probably mangling a term or two, suppression of innate immunity via residual antibodies outcompeting innate / toll mediated engagement leading to a back-footed response (which is nonetheless competent at inhibiting viral shedding into the blood stream, for now). Question is, should we call it ADE-lite or ADE Zero.
I think the only reasonable explanation is double vaxxed low symptom person are infectious and spreading all over the place.
R rates for cases in vaxxed and uvaxxed rates are similar. Age groups all have similar R regardless of vaccination %. That most testing is on symptomatic people (unvaxxed are far more likely to have symptoms) explains the raw number disparity observed outside of the UK.
R looks similar or even less than prior waves. Looking at India (where vaccinations didn't complicate the data) there is no chance Delta has an R0 much different than 2.5-3.0. The width and peak is that of a normal R0~2.7.
Difficult to gage RO in India because of the possibility of many infected symptomatic and fatal cases not being recorded. ( excess deaths appear to show that this was substantial. Relative to population their testing was a bit low, yet at one point was reported to be north of 15. The good news is that after government sponsored Ivermectin roll out, the positive rate dropped more then 99 percent to .01!
Testing north of 15 percent positive.
Weekly or bi monthly random sample testing by health departments would provide so much valuable data. That health departments outside of the UK still have done no such thing after 18months is simply criminal.
Its cheap and very useful.