Mr. Gato, I'd love for you to pick apart the CDC's new study that claims the unjabbed are 11 times as likely to die as the jabbed. Seems super fishy, and completely goes against the data out of the UK and Israel.
Our data shows its about 3-4x more likely to die unvaccinated than double vaxxed - though you are just as likely to get infected. Heavily weighted to elderly.
Boosters are working to in Israel to slow infections from what we see (though how long that lasts is another question entirely)
Part of the issue on cases is testing. Vaccinated people have less severe illness and hence are rarely tested even though they could be infected (and spreading widely - its the only reasonable explanation for the data). Israel needs more random testing like the UK
What lechuga_ said … they are comparing 1.1/100,000 die w/o vaxx vs 0.1 w vaxx. Time period is April to mid July. Vaxx means 14 days after 2nd shot. W/o vaxx means everyone else. And YMMV on death counts — most jurisdictions reported death if COVID was listed as cause (not just primary cause), but two included any death w positive COVID test in past 1-2 months.
I don't know about that specific study but one thing I've seen is people comparing rates like this: 2.7/100,000 die w/o vax, 0.4/100,000 die w/ vax therefore the unvaxxed are almost 7x more likely to die!
The impact of the previously infected (naturally immunity) is really gnawing at me. The numbers from the outbreak in the southern US states did not add up for me. The previous estimates of an R0 of 3 had to be wrong (the spread was much less than originally estimated) OR the vaccine must be causing spread and/or the Delta variant was more infectious. Even if Delta is as infectious as they now estimate (R0 of 8?), it does not explain why younger people were getting a lot more sick than they were at the same time a year earlier (if we are to believe the vaccinated vs non vaccinated data).
The faulty testing regime has really made a mess of this (significant understatement).
From where I sit in TN I can tell you my observations on what has been happening over the last 4-6 weeks. In that time I have personally seen far more cases of Covid than at any point over the last 18 months - including the winter months. I *personally* know of at least twenty people who have recently had Covid compared to perhaps half of that number in all of the months prior. Well over 70% of those have been double-vaxxed - and most all of them have had symptoms though none have been hospitalized. In casual conversation with others this seems to be roughly in alignment with their own observations. Is that all an artifact of having not been hit as hard as other states over the last 18 months or have the vaccines perhaps accelerated the spread or could it be that Delta is simply far more contagious and is driving the higher community spread? I honestly do not know, but I can say for certain that the vaccines have fallen far short of their promise. I also know that I’ve not heard of a single person who’s previously had Covid who has been reinfected.
Chanelling vanden Bossche but probably mangling a term or two, suppression of innate immunity via residual antibodies outcompeting innate / toll mediated engagement leading to a back-footed response (which is nonetheless competent at inhibiting viral shedding into the blood stream, for now). Question is, should we call it ADE-lite or ADE Zero.
I think the only reasonable explanation is double vaxxed low symptom person are infectious and spreading all over the place.
R rates for cases in vaxxed and uvaxxed rates are similar. Age groups all have similar R regardless of vaccination %. That most testing is on symptomatic people (unvaxxed are far more likely to have symptoms) explains the raw number disparity observed outside of the UK.
R looks similar or even less than prior waves. Looking at India (where vaccinations didn't complicate the data) there is no chance Delta has an R0 much different than 2.5-3.0. The width and peak is that of a normal R0~2.7.
Difficult to gage RO in India because of the possibility of many infected symptomatic and fatal cases not being recorded. ( excess deaths appear to show that this was substantial. Relative to population their testing was a bit low, yet at one point was reported to be north of 15. The good news is that after government sponsored Ivermectin roll out, the positive rate dropped more then 99 percent to .01!
Weekly or bi monthly random sample testing by health departments would provide so much valuable data. That health departments outside of the UK still have done no such thing after 18months is simply criminal.
Is there data available for all cause death among the vaccinated vs. not? Given the Pfizer 6 month results as I understand them, this seems critical to analyze.
In the trials it took two weeks to differentiate between the control. What they are not telling you is, of course, that the immune system is apparently repressed rather strongly and the vaccinated are more likely to get Covid.
ask him what "received booster" means. wanna bet the start counting at dose +7 or +14 days once you clear the negative VE window? (just like they did on all the other vaxx stats?)
It's not that guys like Eric Topol are wrong. It's that they literally could not conceive of any set of circumstances where they could be wrong. Read his tweets and see. The smugness is overpowering.
Just a note - reporting isn't likely to go back to normal for the next two weeks. Still need to get through Succot and Shemino Azeret/Simchat Torah (not that observance is as wide spread as Rosh Hashanah or Yom Kippur, but Orthodox-run reporting centers won't be posting anything.)
Case rates per 100k were only a bit higher for unvaccinated in Israel in July (before triple-dosing messed up all the data), and that was after infection efficacy had time to plummet to 0. There really wasn't a lot you could make out of it. And in the UK case rates have gone higher for the unvaccinated - because they went into the summer wave before the plummet in infection efficacy and now have to catch up.
I don't think there's a mechanism for the pseudo-vaccinated to cause higher end-point levels of cases or outcomes for the unvaccinated. The unvaccinated "infection potency" for any given region is whatever it is, when it burns out it burns out.
Mr. Gato, I'd love for you to pick apart the CDC's new study that claims the unjabbed are 11 times as likely to die as the jabbed. Seems super fishy, and completely goes against the data out of the UK and Israel.
Our data shows its about 3-4x more likely to die unvaccinated than double vaxxed - though you are just as likely to get infected. Heavily weighted to elderly.
Boosters are working to in Israel to slow infections from what we see (though how long that lasts is another question entirely)
Part of the issue on cases is testing. Vaccinated people have less severe illness and hence are rarely tested even though they could be infected (and spreading widely - its the only reasonable explanation for the data). Israel needs more random testing like the UK
https://boriquagato.substack.com/p/why-vaccinated-covid-deathshospitalizations?justPublished=true
this is worth taking into account. comping double vaxx to unvaxxed is rigged in a very slanted way.
What lechuga_ said … they are comparing 1.1/100,000 die w/o vaxx vs 0.1 w vaxx. Time period is April to mid July. Vaxx means 14 days after 2nd shot. W/o vaxx means everyone else. And YMMV on death counts — most jurisdictions reported death if COVID was listed as cause (not just primary cause), but two included any death w positive COVID test in past 1-2 months.
I don't know about that specific study but one thing I've seen is people comparing rates like this: 2.7/100,000 die w/o vax, 0.4/100,000 die w/ vax therefore the unvaxxed are almost 7x more likely to die!
The impact of the previously infected (naturally immunity) is really gnawing at me. The numbers from the outbreak in the southern US states did not add up for me. The previous estimates of an R0 of 3 had to be wrong (the spread was much less than originally estimated) OR the vaccine must be causing spread and/or the Delta variant was more infectious. Even if Delta is as infectious as they now estimate (R0 of 8?), it does not explain why younger people were getting a lot more sick than they were at the same time a year earlier (if we are to believe the vaccinated vs non vaccinated data).
The faulty testing regime has really made a mess of this (significant understatement).
From where I sit in TN I can tell you my observations on what has been happening over the last 4-6 weeks. In that time I have personally seen far more cases of Covid than at any point over the last 18 months - including the winter months. I *personally* know of at least twenty people who have recently had Covid compared to perhaps half of that number in all of the months prior. Well over 70% of those have been double-vaxxed - and most all of them have had symptoms though none have been hospitalized. In casual conversation with others this seems to be roughly in alignment with their own observations. Is that all an artifact of having not been hit as hard as other states over the last 18 months or have the vaccines perhaps accelerated the spread or could it be that Delta is simply far more contagious and is driving the higher community spread? I honestly do not know, but I can say for certain that the vaccines have fallen far short of their promise. I also know that I’ve not heard of a single person who’s previously had Covid who has been reinfected.
I know some ones, but I'm afraid they have been tested with fake PCR. These have never been detecting only covid19
Chanelling vanden Bossche but probably mangling a term or two, suppression of innate immunity via residual antibodies outcompeting innate / toll mediated engagement leading to a back-footed response (which is nonetheless competent at inhibiting viral shedding into the blood stream, for now). Question is, should we call it ADE-lite or ADE Zero.
I think the only reasonable explanation is double vaxxed low symptom person are infectious and spreading all over the place.
R rates for cases in vaxxed and uvaxxed rates are similar. Age groups all have similar R regardless of vaccination %. That most testing is on symptomatic people (unvaxxed are far more likely to have symptoms) explains the raw number disparity observed outside of the UK.
R looks similar or even less than prior waves. Looking at India (where vaccinations didn't complicate the data) there is no chance Delta has an R0 much different than 2.5-3.0. The width and peak is that of a normal R0~2.7.
Difficult to gage RO in India because of the possibility of many infected symptomatic and fatal cases not being recorded. ( excess deaths appear to show that this was substantial. Relative to population their testing was a bit low, yet at one point was reported to be north of 15. The good news is that after government sponsored Ivermectin roll out, the positive rate dropped more then 99 percent to .01!
Testing north of 15 percent positive.
Weekly or bi monthly random sample testing by health departments would provide so much valuable data. That health departments outside of the UK still have done no such thing after 18months is simply criminal.
Its cheap and very useful.
Delaware Joe and his cabin boys (Yahoo The Daily Beast, etc.) would call this "rooting for the vaccines to fail". We call it "reality."
It’s better than rooting for humanity to fail.
Exactly
I recommend Alex Berenson's latest missive on the Pfizer boosters "trials".
I also recommend that you read these two articles about India. This information is being suppressed in the west, so our resources are limited.
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2021/09/huge-uttar-pradesh-india-announces-state-covid-19-free-proving-effectiveness-deworming-drug-ivermectin/?utm_source=Facebook&utm_medium=PostTopSharingButtons&utm_campaign=websitesharingbuttons&fbclid=IwAR09HFnJzx8jXzIJCrrgWzXDh2Og3qqsX4AO5G7JSi1tASM2YZRRqcoIwMg
https://www.thedesertreview.com/opinion/columnists/indian-bar-association-sues-who-scientist-over-ivermectin/article_f90599f8-c7be-11eb-a8dc-0b3cbb3b4dfa.html?utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook&utm_campaign=user-share&fbclid=IwAR1vEaDzB8D2t-65p5EzYbpq6x0iEe7hhWAx5y3NdIQN8oHo0ZSSW7A8NGI
Is there data available for all cause death among the vaccinated vs. not? Given the Pfizer 6 month results as I understand them, this seems critical to analyze.
I have not seen any but agree that it would be very useful if we could generate excess death figures there.
Wonder how much effect we can expect from lack of placebo in "control" group.
They are lying about it, calling you unvaccinated if 2 weeks have not yet elapsed since taking the 2nd dose.
In the trials it took two weeks to differentiate between the control. What they are not telling you is, of course, that the immune system is apparently repressed rather strongly and the vaccinated are more likely to get Covid.
Lord, I pray there are not unintended and catastrophic consequences due to taking this experimental medical device into ones body.
What are the odds of ADE taking shape, doctor gatito? Also...I wonder how long before Israel is just muzzled; or are they muzzle proof?
not ADE imo, ADH
ok, you got me. What is ADH?
Really appreciate your analysis. Comments are often enlightening as well. Thanks!
A little OT, but are you aware of the San Juan Declaration? https://roundingtheearth.substack.com/p/the-san-juan-declaration-and-a-new
yes. it was hosted by several of my friends.
wish i could have been there.
Here is what Eric Topol is claiming about the booster in Israel. Basically that it is a huge success. https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1437967349517225988?s=20
ask him what "received booster" means. wanna bet the start counting at dose +7 or +14 days once you clear the negative VE window? (just like they did on all the other vaxx stats?)
I have no doubt that you are completely right about that. I was just reading a Daily Skeptic article about how they game the data to produce misleading headlines to keep people deceived. https://dailysceptic.org/2021/09/14/why-is-the-ons-claiming-just-1-of-covid-deaths-are-in-the-vaccinated-when-phe-data-shows-the-true-figure-for-august-was-70/
It's not that guys like Eric Topol are wrong. It's that they literally could not conceive of any set of circumstances where they could be wrong. Read his tweets and see. The smugness is overpowering.
Pride goeth before the fall, as the saying goes. His incredible hubris is a likely indicator that he is wrong.
Science is just a religion.
I agree. He has that Fauci like arrogance that to attack him is to attack science.
Just a note - reporting isn't likely to go back to normal for the next two weeks. Still need to get through Succot and Shemino Azeret/Simchat Torah (not that observance is as wide spread as Rosh Hashanah or Yom Kippur, but Orthodox-run reporting centers won't be posting anything.)
pandemic of the unvaccinated. those with third doses are doing fine. those unvaccinated seem to be bearing the brunt of this . Almost Mareks like
Case rates per 100k were only a bit higher for unvaccinated in Israel in July (before triple-dosing messed up all the data), and that was after infection efficacy had time to plummet to 0. There really wasn't a lot you could make out of it. And in the UK case rates have gone higher for the unvaccinated - because they went into the summer wave before the plummet in infection efficacy and now have to catch up.
I don't think there's a mechanism for the pseudo-vaccinated to cause higher end-point levels of cases or outcomes for the unvaccinated. The unvaccinated "infection potency" for any given region is whatever it is, when it burns out it burns out.
desasths are up this surge in tx and fl, and the old frail are not anti vaxxed.....