2 Comments
⭠ Return to thread
Comment deleted
Aug 2, 2021
Comment deleted
Expand full comment

i would say that this perception seems quite odd as the current death rate in the US is down about 80% from the summer surge last year, all cause death is normal, and current delta stats in the US show a CFR closer to that of a cold than even a middling flu.

i would also point out that more of the deaths and hospitalizations in the UK (and Israel before they stopped reporting it) were among the vaccinated than the non.

(the US data on this is such crap i cannot figure out how to work with it meaningfully)

this is a classic example of cohort imbalance with the vaccinated being older and high risk. vaccines do seem to work, but efficacy is looking closer to 50% than 90.

that's going to mean that, given age and risk stratification, most hospitalizations are going to be among the vaccinated except possibly in a few places where vax rates among high risk are very low.

Expand full comment