a new set of estimates have emerged on past covid prevalence in the US. they purport to show that ~76% of americans have, by now, had covid.
this seems like a plausible number to me and having taken a quick look through their methods and sourcing, it seems like they took a reasonable approach, subject of course to all the limitations and estimations inherent in extrapolating a number like this (which are not insubstantial). this is a model, not a collected dataset, but it seems a fairly reasonable one.
graphic created by gatopal™ @kbirb who has done so much great work on data here.
what this shows is is a disease that’s over and going to wind down and go endemic.
how it fares in future years in terms of evading acquired immunity (it has certainly evaded vaccines already) is an open issue, but i think the odds on bet is that yes, it will be somewhat evasive, and no, that is not a threat to anyone.
it’ll be like other coronaviruses, widespread, mutating somewhat, and mild to the point of being more annoying that anything else. it’s going to become a cold.
children will get it at a time when it poses them almost no threat.
they will acquire immunity as they do to 50 other common childhood infections. they may get it again later, but it will be mild because the immunity, while not perfect, will be cross reactive.
the same will be true of the adults. i have heard of VERY few cases of SARSCOV-2 reinfection that were in any way severe. the odds on bet is that this will persist, just as it does in the other big 4 of circulating covid colds.
that means this is over and it’s time to stop paying attention, testing, freaking out, or even noticing.
it’s time to return to the classics of
take care of yourself and your health
if you feel ill, stay home
wash your hands
live your life
further hypochondria driven OCD is not public health.
it’s just damage.
(well, unless you work for moderna or pfizer…)
i know that many of you were skeptical that this is all about to fall apart and wind down, but it is. even the formerly shameless shills like CDC head rochelle walensky suddenly sound like they are trying to take the credit for the great barrington declaration…
i mean, they are still accepting signatories…
adherents to a crumbling narrative change jerseys following what looks to be a gompertz curve.
the early stirrings are easy to miss if you are not paying attention.
welcome to the steep part.
suddenly, cases are a bad metric, hospitalizations are mostly incidental, deaths are focused in the highly comorbid, and we need targeted protection. huh.
even notions of natural immunity, that much maligned and obfuscated concept lo these last 22 months are suddenly in the air and being tracked and modeled by the very same people who were recently denying it and telling you that only vaccines could generate herd immunity.
look who built that model:
the covidian circus truly is packing up its tents and preparing to hightail it out of town.
the people who made this mess can read a poll as well as anyone.
even lori lightfoot is picking fights with teachers unions and demanding they get back into the classroom.
the massive, unprecedented public failure of these policies got too big to hide. everybody got vaxxed then got covid anyway. and everybody knows 20 people this happened to. you cannot hide that. it’s not a punch you can duck. if you wanna keep from being knocked out, you better roll with it…
the “these are not the droids you’re looking for” pivot to “the vaccines were just supposed to limit severity” fell on its face. far too many had the receipts. the internet became a wonderland of ubiquitous refutation. instead of fooling people, it gutted credibility. you only need to see a compilation like this once and your eyes snap open. there is no refuting it.
those pushing the “this surge is because not enough people got vaxxed” look ridiculous as the states with 95%+ vaxx rates in over 12’s see their hospitals reach new highs of covid count, driven mostly by over 65’s who are 99% vaxxed.
this is WHY authorities are having to finally pivot to “hospital counts are mostly “with” not “for” covid.” it’s their only non-laugh inducing play left and while they may be poor epidemiologists, they are excellent grifters, and they can see the way the wind is blowing.
most americans do not want to hear about “you need a 3rd booster, maybe a 4th, possibly an annual, and maybe this new magic omnicron booster we promise we’ll have (but that likely will never have a clinical outcomes trial) long after it stops being relevant” from the pharma kingpins who originally sold them “get two and become a dead end for the virus” and the politicians who told them that doing so meant “no masks and get your life back.”
and the narrative of vaxx as public duty is in tatters. if it does not stop spread, then it’s personal health.
even if you did have the right to force such things, there would be no point and ideas that it’s your duty to limit hospital use by getting jabbed rings hollow in a nation where 1/3 to 1/2 of ALL health spending is driven by obesity and obesity related diseases and yet we allow magazine to push pictures of fat people saying “this is healthy.”
the double standard becomes too absurd to sustain.
if liar’s pants really did catch on fire, this whole gang would be a sooty smudge of cinders by now.
and this is why they all need to “be like rochelle” and jump teams. the smart ones already have and even the dim are now catching on.
these are the same people who would happily promise “a missionary in every pot” if they thought their constituents were cannibals.
did you really expect any different?
Perhaps I'm not being as good of a Christian as I should, but I honestly am not ready or willing to just "let bygones be bygones" over this whole mess. I don't care if Walensky and all these other public health officials and bureaucrats are pivoting on the narrative to cover their collective asses, or the people surrounding me inside and outside my family and "friends".
There will be plenty of "It was new and deadly; we HAD to DO something!" or "We worked with what scientist knew and it continually evolved, as Science is supposed to. This went exactly as to be expected." It will be the self-congratulatory cheers and back-slapping of a "job well done", (and despite the insurgency of the "non-vaxxed"), so there will be plenty of support within the media and Covidian echo chambers to allow them to feel good about themselves and the leaders they followed, as well as the lives they destroyed.
No, I will not forgive and forget at any level, though I will continue to live my life and make the best of it for me and my family.
My family has been trying to get covid for a year. We just went to Florida, stayed in a hotel, even went to the Gator Bowl. All fully unvaccinated. Guess that zinc, Vit C and Vit D really do work! The kicker is that my kid's school, where the faculty are proudly touted as 100% vaccinated, had to open virtually after winter break because too many teachers were out with covid. Whomp-whomp.
Great article. One of the problems many of us are still dealing with out here in idiotland is that, while the clowns at the top of this BS are reluctantly pivoting to the science, the school boards who have (as everyone knows by now) tyrannical control over the school systems, are populated by hypochondriac Karens who just can't let go of their covidiot compulsions and are always the last to get the message from "the experts."
In the UK where Team Expert - guardians of The Science™️ - who before Christmas predicted that there would be 3 000 hospital admissions a day from Omicron unless everyone in the land were chained to their beds until further notice, have had to consume large helpings of humble-pie since (of course) there were hardly any admissions from CoVid of any variety. And no way to hide or spin this.
More bizarrely, because of devolved powers in healthcare to Scotland & Wales, the loonies in charge there went full-on Pol Pot, introducing restrictions just short of lockdown. By contrast in England apart from masks and the usual dire warnings, Christmas & New Year celebrations went ahead as normal. And guess what? England is no worse off whatever crummy data set you want to believe than Scotland or Wales.
But no remission for the Scots & Welsh. Some people just won’t give in no matter the evidence from observation.
That is what makes me reserve my judgement regarding ‘beginning of the end’ - because it is unwise to assume that because I - and our blogmeister - are rational operators, that others are too, particularly the parasites in ‘government’.
And that’s the problem here. None of the CoVid measures were based in logic or reason, or modified by learning from observation, so no logic and reason or learning from observation can reverse them.
Swift (I think): You cannot reason a man out of something he did not reason himself into.
We should not let the covidian circus pack their tents and quietly hightail it out of town. These guys need to be held accountable and punished.
Covidestim is great. They show their work. They might even be right. If omicron hadn't come about, we were still just one surge away from everybody having had it. Omicron is a beautiful tidal wave, that's carrying everybody in a 3 week period over the finish line. And it's also just a cold. Truly right now is the time to say - IT'S A COLD, just act like you did pre-2019. Stop stressing about everything.
I love how the talking heads are all pivoting to information we—the sane—knew for the last two years as if this “science” is novel, groundbreaking stuff. In reality, had Omicron not come along we’d be hearing the same regurgitated nonsense about masks, passes and the one-size-fits-all cure herding us along until the inevitable attempt at climate lockdowns.
It’s important we never let these clowns forget the false narratives they spun or the damage they wrought. What they will surely now try to do is credit themselves for an act of nature/chance that did what these vaccines could not: spread an inoculating vaccine through the entire population.
the co=morbidity observations are same now as in march 2020. then we had to destroy the economy to not save gramma, but to ust trump. evertything since jan 2021 is creeping fascism...
I WANT to believe it's ending. But then I look at Israel, Australia, California. They're doggedly (pardon the expression) rejecting reality.
If we lived in a culture that revered honor above all (like Japan), the suicide rate among politicians/public health officials would be through the roof! Instead, these effers will probably hold ceremonies to pin medals on their chests for a job well done.
Somebody needs to tell SCOTUS.
I’m not generally a vengeful person, but I sincerely hope those who most prominent in pushing lockdowns and school closures pay a heavy price. There has to be a penalty for malfeasance in this scale.
Some of them probably belong in prison. But, at any rate, all of the politicians and public health “scientists” who forced these terribly destructive policies on us should see their reputations in tatters.
It is highly conceivable that Omicron is simply the common cold manifesting in the poor innate immune systems of the vaxxed. No one seems to be placing any blame on the vaccine and there are masses of tweets talking about Omicron/Delta Long Covid symptoms that are probably more accurately vaccine side effects.
While it is amusing to see "the experts" tiptoe backwards from the explosive mess they've made, I see the bureaucracies, the schools, the workplaces, still doing what they think is "the Science" erratically going from masking to testing and they don't know what they're doing. April 2020 is still where they're at. To call them Karens is one thing--they are enjoying their power trip and they will never let it go until WE TELL THEM TO STOP. It's sad to see the staff at the supermarkets masked continually for 2 years and it's done nothing. And I'm in "free Florida" which all it takes is seeing a family vacationing here from NJ double masked at the beach and I'm triggered....
On the other hand, I just read a WSJ article saying several countries are going for a fourth shot, one country is buying enough doses for a fifth, and some officials are wondering if vaccinating everybody every three or four months is going to work. I mean I hope you are right, and thank you for the optimistic posts, but my head is splitting from all of this. I hope it ends soon…
I struggle to buy that big a number, because earlier literature indicated 30-50% had prior immunity.
The bottom line is probably no one remains with significant vulnerabilities to this virus or variants.
If the vaccines have damaged people such they are vulnerable & wouldn’t have been?
Not good. But it’s no longer a transmissible Pandemic.
Call me old-fashioned but I'm not buying the notion that you can "have" an (acute) disease and have, never have, any symptoms. I think, e.g., Dr Yeadon agrees with me (the reverse, rather).
"Asymptomatic Cases" was a principle plank of the PsyOp enabled by a so-call "test" that generated -and generates - vast numbers of false positives. Any honest history will come to understand the "Omicron wave" as a total artifact of the surge of self, family and private party planner imposed testing last month - bring the lag forward into the "record numbers" of early 2022.
They are pivoting like mad, but I’m still infuriated that the CT COVID data daily tracker in the last 2 weeks went from 74% of COVID hospitalizations are unvaccinated to 68% are unvaccinated today. It’s obviously a bald faced lie, but it lets hospitals encourage the lie to be repeated, I want to stick this false data in my kitty litter box and then shove it in their mouths...
As pessimist as I am, I have to say that this is the first time since March 2020 that it REALLY seems like they are ready to replace "Covid: The Movie" with another premiere with whose script we´ll be gaslighted for some years, which I am quite sure will be global warming.
I think my country´s case (Spain) is enlightening, because do you know who was the first/one of the first individuals who visited our Government President just after winning the elections? George Soros. And we have been following the globalist agenda point by point. So the fact that our President has said that he´s preparing a de-escalation for the next weeks in which "cases" will stop being counted, and Covid will be treated as a flu, is an interesting sign of moonwalking dance from those who pushed the craziest Covid measures.
Furthermore, as Gato says, old concepts that had been erased during the pandemic (immune system mainly, but also all-cause mortality, difference between "death BY/WITH Covid", etc.) are in the mouth of the stupidest among the stupidest media parrots.
All this is excellent news.
Thank you so much, Gato, for your insightful posts. They keep me sane, although in Austria good ol‘ fascism is getting more prevalent each day. But I guess that‘s just the elite knowing that they are about to lose. Everything reminds me of the last days of WW2 when A.H. already knew that he had lost the war. Nonetheless he kept sending innocent men into their death…
(So, now I could be sued for comparing now with then for downplaying the Nazi time… No, I don‘t downplay anything here, I hope that the 1930/40s never return in full swing… But beginnings are definitely here. Unvaxxed have been in their own personal lockdown since over 2 months and it will be extended, well, undefinitely.)
"The massive, unprecedented public failure of these policies got too big to hide. everybody got vaxxed then got covid anyway. and everybody knows 20 people this happened to. you cannot hide that."
One of my favorite quotes that has served as a mantra from the outset proves itself again. :~)
The truth is incontrovertible.
Malice may attack it,
ignorance may deride it,
but in the end, there it is.
~ Winston Churchill. ~
Love you Gato! Thank you for the dose of sanity every day. I refresh my emails just in the hope of receiving one of your therapy sessions. Also, i love your writing. It’s fire. Do you have a writing background? Just curious as id live to have a gato biography.
Could use a little help up here in Canada next, captain underpants shows no sign of changing his tune
Don't let them forget what they've said -- and done.
Some people need to go to prison for this and we can start with corrupted public servants pushing a narrative that has come down from the sky like the Hidenburg. Then we can move to entire governmental entities (public health agencies, city councils, boards of supervisors and the like) that continue even now to insist on vaccination to live your life, have a child in school or keep your job (check out L.A. and N.Y.C. if you don't believe me). Let's have that kind of reckoning with REAL consequences and then we'll see about moving forward and memory holing this two year mountain of bullshit.
As we draw down on this madness I get this sinking feeling that the killers are going to get away with it again. Maybe I just woke up in a mood, or having watched some news and saw the anchors were pissed about the loosening of restrictions more than their children being hurt. It is like when Harry Reid's answer to the lie he told about Romney's taxes (I hate Romney so I am not defending him). He said "It worked didn't it". And they moved on. Nobody is ever held accountable. This is so incredibly worse and top to bottom I think they will skate. The Chinese, the drug companies, Fauci, MSM, rat bastard politicians.
Sorry so glum. Tomorrow is a different day. Take your vitamins, get sun, hug the willing.
For the life of me, I can't see why we haven't done random sampling of people for COVID. The self selection bias skews the data far away from any useful conclusions.
A mass exodus from mass formation. It won't be easy for some though. Someone I know was lamenting the fact that (in his mind) the "anti-vaxxers" would feel vindicated by the emergence of omicron. He claimed that the shots were never meant to slow the spread, only to protect against severe outcomes. He also went on to profess that he is grateful for the science and will gladly line up to receive additional boosters or any new products that come recommended from pharma, CDC, etc. I'm hopeful that he will "be like Rochelle" but I think that it may take some time to consider things in a different light.
Yah, when I saw the Pfizer CEO say they would have an Omicron specific vaccine it left me scratching my head because, why do we need a vaccine for the common cold? And this holds especially true when you accept the fact that pretty much every human being on the planet is going to get Omicron and thus have natural immunity.
I hate to jinx it but sure feels like good momentum is taking place. It’s been a real head twister watching this craziness unfurl. I guess the Iraq war run up prepared me for this, and just like that we here all know people will soon act like they have been covid skeptics for this whole time. I guess that’s fine. Fjb though. F him forever.
Covid was brought to you by the self-same people who gleefully sacrifice babies on the alter of virtue, there is NO bottom with these folks. If Covid is over, then another foot will inhabit the bloody boot that is pushing your face into the mud, that's the plan and the only plan: Your face in the mud until you are dead.
I see a four step process:
(1) Go on TV pointing out that very few children that are counted as "COVID hospitalizations" are actually in the hospital because of COVID.
(2) Go on TV pointing out that most adults who are counted as "COVID hospitalizations" are actually in the hospital because of COVID
(3) Go on TV pointing out that many people who were counted as "COVID deaths" died onto *from* COVID but from something else and just tested positive for COVID
(4) Go on TV pretending 1 through 3 were not the beginning but that this only happened toward the end because of the vaccines.
We've seen one and two, I saw a clip from Walensky on Bret Baier's show being pressed about three. So we're moving. But it's four we really have to worry about if we never want this to happen again. We need to tear these people out of their positions of power because one through three were definitely true from the very beginning, they likely knew it, and they have brought our country and society to the brink of authoritarianism using fear of something we had no reason to fear (be cautious of, yes, but fear, no).
This morning's NYT newsletter is proclaiming that unvaxxed are being infected at much higher rates than vaxxed, and showing graphs from NYC and Seattle. This stands in stark contrast to what we've been seeing in the data from Denmark, UK, Canada, Germany, etc., where omicron is hitting the vaxxed harder. ... What's up with that? Funny business with data, I wonder?
Today's op-ed in the WSJ by Ramaswamy and Ramaswamy-- though it may rankle some in this community by stating that masks can be effective at limiting viral spread-- suggests, rightly, that continuing to try to suppress a mild variant is the most dangerous thing we can do right now. And they taught me something I didn't know: it was regular exposure to those with chicken pox that helped adults with prior immunity avoid shingles. Knowing the current fears about "long covid" or future illness for those who had covid, it is interesting to consider that regular exposures may be beneficial in the long run.
The U.S. ave. is probably higher as many who got it, never tested, and sure as hell didn't report it to anyone. We sure didn't when hubby got it!
And yet hard left institutions are falling over themselves to rush booster mandates, Like clowns piling out of a clown car. They will not be satisfied until more children have been sacrificed.
In pro wrestling it’s called Heel/Face Turns. Big government trying to be Faces after everyone realizes they are the Heels. This is a very tough Turn to execute because everyone is seeing they are source of problem and with all the damage done, will never ever be seen in the same light again. They better hire Ric Flair as a consultant!! https://tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pmwiki.php/Main/HeelFaceTurn
I literally just asked myself yesterday when they CDC would endorse the Great Barrington Declaration now that they have latched on to the “75% of COVID deaths were in people who had at least 4 co-morbidities” fact and are using this to try to support vaccinations.
I hope that you are correct about this being over, but i have my doubts. In the same week that Lori Lightfoot picked the fight with the teacher's union, she instituted vaccine passports in Chicago. And, yesterday, JB Pritzker adopted the OSHA vaccine mandate as Illinois law. For the residents of Illinois, there seems to be no end in sight.
When, do you think, the testing regime is taken down? I think the virus is already endemic- we passed the pandemic phase last January. I think if we continue to test in the 2 million/day range, cases can never fall below 10-20K/day, and will average over the course of each following year at about 100,000/day, which will be used to justify further testing of contacts, which will then find more cases, rinse and repeat. It is almost a Gordian Knot situation that can't end without someone saying "enough testing" and axing the funding for it.
I stole your comment about being poor epidemiologists but excellent grifters (gave you credit) on Twitter. True words, never said!
In other words,we on the verge of herd immunity. Do I get you right?
Gato...I agree with you in general, and in fact have been sharing your articles on this subject. But I am still waiting to see how this plays out in specific cases.
- I think we all agree that the red states will be fine.
- We probably also agree that things are not looking good in left-wing crazylands like New York City, San Francisco, etc.
- The areas that I am focusing on now are the blue-but-not-batshit-crazy-blue places like New York State, New Jersey, Pennsylvania and Philadelphia, Illinois, Maryland, Denver, Houston, etc. How do you see things playing out there?
It also never fails to blow my mind that there are still plenty of people out there saying ‘they never told us it would stop the virus!’
Absolutely mind boggling.
What is happening now with the O is perfect. In fact if COVID had never happened the O would not even be a news story. Sure, there would be a whole bunch of, "it is really going around" and "everyone at the office is sick" but very few would even call their doctor. My wife got Delta in August and we were already following the FLCCC protocol so she recovered in 7 days and I never got it. Yesterday my wife tested positive with cold ifi symptoms because the O is very different. I still have no symptoms......
As much as I hate to say this, if omicron will indeed be the end of all this nonsense it does seem like the vaccines brought us there. Maybe in a different way then expected, but in an unvaccinated community omicron would not have become dominant.
I sure hope El Gato is right. When I hear authoritarians talk about protecting the vulnerable, all I can visualize are mandates.
The other thing that is strange is I knew very few people last year who had Covid and this year literally everyone around me has had it…myself included. That alone makes me think the vaccine made things worse. Our local hospital is still is putting out data showing that it is only unvaccinated people that are doing poorly.
yes but every day there's a new mandate
I think someone forgot to bring the Pope up to speed…he may have missed the last memo.