a new set of estimates have emerged on past covid prevalence in the US. they purport to show that ~76% of americans have, by now, had covid.
this seems like a plausible number to me and having taken a quick look through their methods and sourcing, it seems like they took a reasonable approach, subject of course to all the limitations and estimations inherent in extrapolating a number like this (which are not insubstantial). this is a model, not a collected dataset, but it seems a fairly reasonable one.
graphic created by gatopal™ @kbirb who has done so much great work on data here.
what this shows is is a disease that’s over and going to wind down and go endemic.
how it fares in future years in terms of evading acquired immunity (it has certainly evaded vaccines already) is an open issue, but i think the odds on bet is that yes, it will be somewhat evasive, and no, that is not a threat to anyone.
it’ll be like other coronaviruses, widespread, mutating somewhat, and mild to the point of being more annoying that anything else. it’s going to become a cold.
children will get it at a time when it poses them almost no threat.
they will acquire immunity as they do to 50 other common childhood infections. they may get it again later, but it will be mild because the immunity, while not perfect, will be cross reactive.
the same will be true of the adults. i have heard of VERY few cases of SARSCOV-2 reinfection that were in any way severe. the odds on bet is that this will persist, just as it does in the other big 4 of circulating covid colds.
that means this is over and it’s time to stop paying attention, testing, freaking out, or even noticing.
it’s time to return to the classics of
take care of yourself and your health
if you feel ill, stay home
wash your hands
live your life
further hypochondria driven OCD is not public health.
it’s just damage.
(well, unless you work for moderna or pfizer…)
i know that many of you were skeptical that this is all about to fall apart and wind down, but it is. even the formerly shameless shills like CDC head rochelle walensky suddenly sound like they are trying to take the credit for the great barrington declaration…
i mean, they are still accepting signatories…
adherents to a crumbling narrative change jerseys following what looks to be a gompertz curve.
the early stirrings are easy to miss if you are not paying attention.
welcome to the steep part.
suddenly, cases are a bad metric, hospitalizations are mostly incidental, deaths are focused in the highly comorbid, and we need targeted protection. huh.
even notions of natural immunity, that much maligned and obfuscated concept lo these last 22 months are suddenly in the air and being tracked and modeled by the very same people who were recently denying it and telling you that only vaccines could generate herd immunity.
look who built that model:
the covidian circus truly is packing up its tents and preparing to hightail it out of town.
the people who made this mess can read a poll as well as anyone.
even lori lightfoot is picking fights with teachers unions and demanding they get back into the classroom.
the massive, unprecedented public failure of these policies got too big to hide. everybody got vaxxed then got covid anyway. and everybody knows 20 people this happened to. you cannot hide that. it’s not a punch you can duck. if you wanna keep from being knocked out, you better roll with it…
the “these are not the droids you’re looking for” pivot to “the vaccines were just supposed to limit severity” fell on its face. far too many had the receipts. the internet became a wonderland of ubiquitous refutation. instead of fooling people, it gutted credibility. you only need to see a compilation like this once and your eyes snap open. there is no refuting it.
those pushing the “this surge is because not enough people got vaxxed” look ridiculous as the states with 95%+ vaxx rates in over 12’s see their hospitals reach new highs of covid count, driven mostly by over 65’s who are 99% vaxxed.
this is WHY authorities are having to finally pivot to “hospital counts are mostly “with” not “for” covid.” it’s their only non-laugh inducing play left and while they may be poor epidemiologists, they are excellent grifters, and they can see the way the wind is blowing.
most americans do not want to hear about “you need a 3rd booster, maybe a 4th, possibly an annual, and maybe this new magic omnicron booster we promise we’ll have (but that likely will never have a clinical outcomes trial) long after it stops being relevant” from the pharma kingpins who originally sold them “get two and become a dead end for the virus” and the politicians who told them that doing so meant “no masks and get your life back.”
and the narrative of vaxx as public duty is in tatters. if it does not stop spread, then it’s personal health.
even if you did have the right to force such things, there would be no point and ideas that it’s your duty to limit hospital use by getting jabbed rings hollow in a nation where 1/3 to 1/2 of ALL health spending is driven by obesity and obesity related diseases and yet we allow magazine to push pictures of fat people saying “this is healthy.”
the double standard becomes too absurd to sustain.
if liar’s pants really did catch on fire, this whole gang would be a sooty smudge of cinders by now.
and this is why they all need to “be like rochelle” and jump teams. the smart ones already have and even the dim are now catching on.
these are the same people who would happily promise “a missionary in every pot” if they thought their constituents were cannibals.
did you really expect any different?