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Child making is effected by optimism. How many people do not want to bring kids into a world raging with disease and problems with financial outcomes like none seen in any of our lives?

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If the optimism argument was correct, I think 2021 would have fallen vs. 2020. That didn't happen.

The early-2022 fall basically coincides with the vaxx rollout nine-ish months earlier.

The only conceivable way we could luck out of this is if we learn that many of those who got vaxxed collectively decided to not try to be parents during the month or so after they got jabbed, but started trying again after that. That seems like the longest of (excuse the pun) long shots.

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Birth rates in largely non-vaxecuted countries have not taken such a dive though

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Non-injected countries also did not live on a fear porn diet. It will take a couple of years to sort this out.

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I was thinking that myself

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