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We lasted 18 months, family of 5, kids did sleepovers all last summer, kid works at sbux, wife works at preschool Inner city.

Nothing.

Due to worries after my spine surgery, I reluctantly got the 1st shot. Within 2 weeks Covid ran all thru our house, even my fully vaxxed 18 y..o.

I was asymptomatic.

That's anecdotal, but everything you say here and in the other one is spot on.

The worst thing they could do is 1st or booster at just the wrong time on seasonal wave.

Cali here is on downslope so I think we are okay for now.

So utterly PISSED at stupid Americans that dont read and believe everything big daddy and MSM tells them. Idiots.

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Democrats/Leftists are already conditioned to be obedient slaves.

Leftism has become a club for delusional cultists that blindly follow the Left Collective groupthink.

Dems policies sucks, and not by chance Dems paradise California is the state from where more people are moving out.

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The potential for a 2 week window of serious immune surpression is bad enough but what does this suggest for long term consequences? I suspect "no one knows" and that is a bad answer for a treatment being pushed onto almost the whole population worldwide.

This has the potential to eclipse every other medical scandal combined.

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You are wrong only in the sense that we passed that mile marker many moons ago. There is no medical and, I would argue, political scandal that comes close. At least not in the last 150 years. This is so enormous. It is so bad. The consequences will last at least for a generation.

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More likely generational damage.

If the spike proteins are concentration in the ovaries, when a women becomes pregnant with a girl it is that specific environment in which that young girls eggs are created.

Way over my skis, so please those in the know speak up, but mRNA is how "knowledge" is transmitted across generations (that's my very uneducated description of what happens). It brings up the old wives tale that "diabetes" skipped generations. Which we now understand to be epigenetics (the illness your mother had when you were conceived, didn't impact you but did your children.)

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Glad you brought up epigenetics, I have been thinking about the potential consequences (for next generations) born from the mRNA "vaccinated".

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Find it curious that we aren't hearing from geneticists on this topic.

Also find it curious with all of the health tracking devices (heart rate, sleep, blood glucose etc.), notice how there isn't any mention of how well people do POST jab? If the jab really was innocuous that data would be plastered across all media.

It's not what being said but what is curiously absent is where will need to look for the truth.

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where we -- not where will -- wish there was an edit button.

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Along with human rights violations!

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banned mrna researchers suggest long term immune damage. no safety worries!!!

Why not second dose? if u survive you got and for a while I suspect booster not different than dose one harm.

get boost WW every 6 months!!

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<"long term consequences"> such as, will it interfere with the immune system's ability to properly defend the body from other types of coronaviruses?

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Pretty sure it already has done so.

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El Gato, thank you so much for "ALL" of this. I realize this is off topic, and maybe you have addressed this in the past, but I cannot seem to find any serious analysis of previously infected people who also got the vaccine (either by choice or pressure) and how they account for any analysis of vaccine efficacy. In my mind, this should be a major consideration. What if any or the majority of efficacy occurred in those who already had natural immunity? Would this not greatly decrease the "actual" efficacy? I'm curious about your take on that concept and if you or anyone you know of has included that in any analysis. Thank you again.

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I agree with you and Dan and have posted the same question. Given that natural immunity confers a 27x lower risk of infection than Pfizer vaccine (Israeli study) and that combo natural plus vaccine was the same or perhaps even a tick better, it seems certain that the vaccine outcomes data is poisoned by this variable - except for the rare instances when it has been controlled. In the cases when this has not been controlled (almost all the data reviewed here and elsewhere, to my knowledge), the VE is certainly overstated, and possibly by a wide margin.

Let's not forget, we are not talking about a 4% or 10% benefit from prior infection (numbers that would be paraded around in normal times), but a 27x benefit (that is discounted as irrelevant...)! For argument's sake, and this is not a stretch, it seems likely that 30% or more of those in the "vaccinated" bucket also have natural immunity. Consider the implications! Further, it seems likely, though still theoretical, that those with prior immunity are better protected from this 7-10d window of immune suppression as their immune response may be robust enough to rise above the risk. Would love to see that data...

I would argue that VE is likely overstated and immunosuppression after the first dose is likely understated. And both to a significant degree.

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I'm just an average Joe, but that certainly seems like a metric worth tracking. Yet seeming the "experts" are not. And yet they wonder why many of us don't trust them.

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Production of spike proteins (during the worry window) turn off signalling for the toll like receptors that control the innate immune system regardless of previous immunity. So your concerns are not justified.

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This question has been presented by myself as well as many others much smarter than I. As far as I can tell there is no good accounting for those previously infected + vaxed. My guess is that if we had that data then the VE would be much lower than presented.

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That were my thoughts too. It seems that vaccines "success" will be announced in the countries which allowed the natural immunity. Sweden comes to mind..

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I'm still trying to figure out how you are able to do data analysis this well PLUS have a way with words and comedy. Must be exclusive to bad kitties!

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author

all cats can do this.

we just don't like to brag.

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So boosting acts like the 1st shot.. significantly decreasing immunity for a while? Implications would be to never boost during a time when there is Covid is present in any great degree, or hideout in the basement for a month after boosting..? (or in my case as a person without significant risk - don't boost at all).

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That follows the reasoning of “never roll out mass vaccinations during widespread periods.”

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This is so Incredibly distressing, especially in light of the coming booster wave, right at the start of winter. God help us.

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Interesting analysis as always. However...

I note that the outcome you are testing against is covid deaths. Which I find to be unreliable by association with PCR at excessive cycles.

So what would the death curve look like using all cause mortality as the outcome of interest?

Perhaps 2nd doses are just as likely to create all cause mortality as 1st doses are to create 'covid' mortality.

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author

unfortunately, it's not a useful metric at the far right side of the graph as all cause and excess deaths tend to take months to finish populating and become reliable in the data.

possible we could run it vs past vaxx periods, but i find the excess deaths figures from OWID to be pretty iffy and unreliable. i do not really trust their baselines enough for this.

i'm also not sure the PCR issues really a problem here as it has the same oversensitivity in all periods so it should more or less cancel out.

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I wonder if this is a new phenomenon since widespread vaccination or if we could back it out of the UK data. They have age curves for vaccination but dosage and cases by dosage back to at least February. Not always in the easiest format.

If it's a stronger association now (which seems the biggest risk-auto scaling to match the data up can make one slope look like any other but your point about the lead and lag as well as the flat are strong) then perhaps it's more evidence of ADE at very low titers. Or full evasion in the serial passage that is immature immunity. That is a really intriguing idea... When was that Danish study?

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https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.03.08.21252200v1 is the Danish study I think you are interested in.

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Super excellent question

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I'm worried about what we're going to see here in the northeast. The first rollout was when the virus was waning due to seasonality. The boosters are coming when we're just gearing up for respiratory virus season.

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Seems like pushing first doses in the N of the US right now would be a Bad Idea™.

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Boosters in the northern US states might be one of the most dangerous possibilities if they start pushing them, especially as they are heading for a seasonal wave. Doesn't help that they have decided to start laying off health care workers at the same time.

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Another good angle: those who got both doses early on, might effectively be the same as “unvaxxed” and this vicious cycle might start over.

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Or if you get a first dose, hunker down at home for 10 days.

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If the 2nd dose doesn't cause a mortality spike because it comes so soon after the first dose then the obvious answer is to keep injecting people with shots every 21 days. That should sort the problem out. 😁

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How about skip the first dose and inject the second one directly?

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Example of worry window death locally here: https://www.wavy.com/news/local-news/norfolk/norfolk-spanish-teacher-dies-from-covid-19-after-a-brief-illness/

Article says “He was not vaccinated; unfortunately, he had gotten the first part of the Pfizer a week before he contracted it but it had not been in his system long enough to offer any protection,”

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Great work.

If you are interested in looking at hospitalizations, Ontario has some interesting data in their “pandemic tracker.” Take a look at how hospitalizations for ILIs + COVID compare to historic benchmarks. I bet just glancing at this, you would:

- wonder where the Spring 2020 and Winter 2021 “waves” are hiding; and,

- be able to guess exactly when Ontario started rolling out the mass vaccination campaign

Here’s the link:

https://www.kflaphi.ca/aces-pandemic-tracker/

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Based on this would you say the risk atm to get vaccinated in Ontario is at a low?

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If you’re looking to get a first dose, I would do it now. Don’t wait - soon it will be coronavirus season and your risk of exposure will be higher.

There’s a reason flu shots are administered in Sep - Nov, and not peak flu season (Jan - Mar)

If you want to see typical seasonality for different human respiratory viruses in Canada, check out this website. It’s updated weekly on Thursdays. We just entered the 2021/22 resp virus season at the beginning of Sep. You can check out previous years’ reports, as well as keep an eye on viral prevalence in Ontario:

https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/surveillance/respiratory-virus-detections-canada.html

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Well, that's worrisome. If this is true, wonder how long it will take the "experts" to catch up with you?

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pull up a chart of Vietnam and thailand cases, deaths and vaccinations. same lag as you show here is seen

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Might be useful to look at western and south Australia. They are essentially COVID zero with big upticks in vax. They are also experiencing major stress on the health care system with ‘ramping’ at all time highs.

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So, employers should be getting fined for making employees get vaccinated rather than fining employers for not “cresting a safe work environment” with a mandatory vaccination policy.

The first 14 days of treatment wrecks vaccine safety/efficacy, or so it would appear.

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