I think cpalmer's figures above suggest a pretty steady impact on the unvaccinated in the UK, with the Covid vaccinated driving higher overall CFR by aging up the pool of infection-susceptible. (I've mentioned before that figures in the US are poisoned by shoddy reporting and an essentially murderous treatment protocol.) I agree there is…
I think cpalmer's figures above suggest a pretty steady impact on the unvaccinated in the UK, with the Covid vaccinated driving higher overall CFR by aging up the pool of infection-susceptible. (I've mentioned before that figures in the US are poisoned by shoddy reporting and an essentially murderous treatment protocol.) I agree there is no signal for ADE yet (except in driving more infection, but not severe outcomes).
Unless a virus phenotype includes immune evasion (sabotaging cellular immunity) / dormancy, I don't think Marek's applies. Coronavirus probably has intracellular immune evasion but this is not influenced by adaptive immunity, so vaccines can't futz with the dials. Otherwise, what exactly is the vaccine going to train the coronavirus genome to do? Make spikes faster? Again, I propose that it is already running with all relevant dials at 11.
I am sure I know about 1/1000th of the biology you do, but are you suggesting that the old & vulnerable are the 1st to come out of the protective vaccine window & therefore the CFR is being boosted because those folks are re-entering danger zone? This is what I have surmised (with no biology, simply trying to understand the data). Wrote a single substack post with some charts there.
Regarding the absolute increase in cases (and therefor hospitalizations and deaths, despite severe outcome efficacy) mentioned in your post, that falls back under the vaccines appearing to have "negative infection efficacy" due to disabling innate immunity. See my "Forever Spike" post - https://unglossed.substack.com/p/forever-spike#footnote-anchor-13
Right, when infection efficacy was still holding in June, only the best players (the young) were out on the field. Now the elderly have come out from the bench. Even if the elderly are stronger players than they would be without the vaccine, the virus gets more runs.
I think cpalmer's figures above suggest a pretty steady impact on the unvaccinated in the UK, with the Covid vaccinated driving higher overall CFR by aging up the pool of infection-susceptible. (I've mentioned before that figures in the US are poisoned by shoddy reporting and an essentially murderous treatment protocol.) I agree there is no signal for ADE yet (except in driving more infection, but not severe outcomes).
Unless a virus phenotype includes immune evasion (sabotaging cellular immunity) / dormancy, I don't think Marek's applies. Coronavirus probably has intracellular immune evasion but this is not influenced by adaptive immunity, so vaccines can't futz with the dials. Otherwise, what exactly is the vaccine going to train the coronavirus genome to do? Make spikes faster? Again, I propose that it is already running with all relevant dials at 11.
I am sure I know about 1/1000th of the biology you do, but are you suggesting that the old & vulnerable are the 1st to come out of the protective vaccine window & therefore the CFR is being boosted because those folks are re-entering danger zone? This is what I have surmised (with no biology, simply trying to understand the data). Wrote a single substack post with some charts there.
Regarding the absolute increase in cases (and therefor hospitalizations and deaths, despite severe outcome efficacy) mentioned in your post, that falls back under the vaccines appearing to have "negative infection efficacy" due to disabling innate immunity. See my "Forever Spike" post - https://unglossed.substack.com/p/forever-spike#footnote-anchor-13
Right, when infection efficacy was still holding in June, only the best players (the young) were out on the field. Now the elderly have come out from the bench. Even if the elderly are stronger players than they would be without the vaccine, the virus gets more runs.