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seems like if that were an issue, we'd have seen it in the past. but we do not. their curves have been all but indistinguishable.

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I think that's JBP's point. If the curves are indistinguishable that means Israel is actually doing better because they have an older population. Israel about 12.5% over 65, Palestine only 2.9% over 65, which is remarkable. You're also right El Gato to point out that they've been pretty consistently tracking each other before and after vaccination. The coming of the vaccine did not result in Israel peeling away - far from it.

By the way, "ethnically/genetically similar" - I'd love to see you drop that one in over dinner in Tel Aviv and/or Ramallah. I'm not saying you're wrong but it could be a tad controversial over there.

You could take a look at Greece and Bulgaria.

Also the 3 Baltic States. Their total vaccination rates are not so low but they have the odd quirk of not vaccinating the majority of the elderly first.

"Currently, only a little more than half (54%) of all seniors in Latvia have been vaccinated against Covid-19. The situation is similar throughout Latvia with even the high takeup centers in Vidzeme only slightly better than the rest of the country."

It might be memories of the old Soviet propaganda making them suspicious but it seems the elderly are quite resistant to the vaccine there.

https://eng.lsm.lv/article/society/society/clear-differences-in-regional-vaccination-take-up-across-latvia.a427638/

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"I think that's JBP's point. If the curves are indistinguishable that means Israel is actually doing better because they have an older population"

i think you're missing the point i was making:

if age was so impactful, why was it not a factor before vaccination?

they were literally identical once you time shift.

and israel is a VERY young country too.

whatever the variance, they performed indistinguishably before vaccines and then indistinguishably after.

so where is the case that vaccines bent the curve at all?

and why did israel see the same all cause mortality as least seasonal spike?

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Yes, that's pretty much what I said. They tracked each other before and after the vaccination. It did not result in Israel pulling away from Palestine.

65+ population

Israel 12.4%

Palestine 2.9%

All other things being equal Israel should have had it worse but they didn't. However, as we've both said that was the case quite consistently before and after Israel's massive vaccine rollout.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/526596/age-structure-in-israel/

https://worldpopulationreview.com/countries/palestine-population

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One other thing in that region. You'll hear people getting excited about Israeli boosters and how they've pushed down the curve of cases. Take a look at Cyrpus. Massive spike in cases (and a rise in deaths), peaked and crashed with little or no boosters 8 weeks before Israel.

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Not all Jews in Israel are Sephardi. Not sure that comparing Ashkenazi Jews who've spent the last 2,000 years exiled in Europe (later the USA) with middle eastern Arabs shows similar genetics. For instance, even among Israeli Jews there is genetic testing for illnesses done for certain ethnic groups and not others.

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