Gato, I posted this is another thread, however it would be great to have someone so facile with data to look and and comment on the CDC "Study" the administration is using to prove their case for "pandemic of the unvaccinated".
In particular, they keep at the "11X more likely to die" as if it were gospel. It's a great Tweet-bite, but I don't think the study allows them to say this with any confidence. What say you, or anyone else who'd like to chime in?
I'm having a hard time squaring the claims of high vaccine effectiveness with the IFR (and size) of the current US COVID wave, which looks a lot like the winter wave. The ratio of deaths to infections is about 1% and rising, about the same as before. How can that be if the vast majority of vulnerable are now vaccinated? Then the infected should skew younger and a smaller fraction of infections should be fatal. But the IFR is seemingly unchanged.
Summer 2021 deaths really seem to be intentionally inflicted by hospitals. Total ignorance of even vitamin drips, early promotion of useless ventilators. That's all anecdotal since hospital care practices are so obscure. But many of the creepy "come look at this unvaccinated young person who croaked" news stories seem to have a lot of weird elements.
"Davy Macias, a 37-year-old registered nurse from Yucaipa, would succumb to COVID-19 on Aug. 26, eight days after delivering a baby girl she never got to hold because she was on a ventilator."
What? Why was she on a ventilator in the middle of 3rd trimester? The ICU admission rate for pregnant women infected with SC2 was .8 last year per the CDC - the same or less as all women aged 30 - 39.
"Her husband Daniel, 39, a middle school teacher, also was stricken by the coronavirus and spent his last days in a hospital intensive care unit. He died Thursday, leaving behind the couple’s five children, ages 7 and younger."
Again? Why? In this sample set of two, what are the odds that they both actually warranted ventilation (of course there's a selection bias of 100% when looking at deaths, but still).
Placed in a coma to have your child cut out from you and then die. It's the stuff of Johnny Got His Gun nightmares.
Remdesivir - no effect, of course. I looked at the South African Health Department's rapid reviews, the only drug making it through review is iv steroids.
No Vit C, vit D, Budesonide, Azithromycin, Colchicine, convalescent plasma, Ivermectin, HCQ......All reviewed, all labeled as inconclusive - don't use.
No wonder doctors and patients are helping themselves.
I’ve been thinking about that. How does one do that? No vent and no remdesivir even if my husband wants it for me. Where can I get such living will in the USA?
I agree with this too. In addition, I am having a hard time squaring the various government actions with the results. I know everyone has been arguing about whether masks works, whether the unvaxed are causing a continuation of the pandemic, whether lockdowns work, etc. etc., but it would be great to see an overview of what the latest thinking is.
For example, I have been to the Hollywood Bowl to see concerts this summer (an outdoor amphitheater that seats about 17,000 people. The have huge screens that show video of the performers as well as ads before the show begins. Even at the end of the summer they were advising people to wash their hands to stop the spread. We know this doesn't matter, but people keep saying it.
I really can't figure out the mask situation. Orange County, right next to LA county, doesn't have mask mandates but LA county does. It appears that their covid problems are no different than LA's. Why is that?
My daughter attends the local public high school and they are required to wear masks. They have been in session for about a month now, and there are about 2500 students and staff. The cumulative cases for the last month is: 7. Staff is 93% vaxxed and students are about 85% vaxxed. Plus, our town has a very low number of cases in the first place. I think having only 7 cases in a month is pretty darn good! Should I attribute this to masking? Vaxxes? Low incidence in the community? Luck?
I am not a conspiracy theory believer. I do think that there is a lot of misinformation that is being repeated as dogma. I want to know what is BS so that I, and my family, can live our lives, and I don't waste energy tilting at windmills.
I think my little rant here is relevant to this thread because Israel has been held up as the model place -- and yet despite their vaccinations, their masks, and their vax passes, they still have outbreaks that are worse than before. But I should be careful with the word outbreaks as that is the number of cases, not necessarily that their hospitals are overwhelmed or that they have a large number of deaths to go with the cases.
Literally every one of these issues- masks, lockdowns, vaccine mandates- have been asked of and answered by the data for anyone with the will to look at them.
These have all been addressed, sometimes multiple times, right in this substack and countless others. Virtually everyone dissenting from the previously-unheard-of positions of masks, lockdowns, and vaccine mandates are cancelled, fired, and censored. The word "misinformation," which you used, invariably describes those so punished.
Masks don't work. Lockdowns don't work. Vaccines don't stop spread and may actually worsen them. The unvaccinated are not responsible for greater spread or virus mutation.
I'm sorry you're worried about being seen as a "conspiracy theory believer." I'm worried about someday being put in a camp or shot.
I obviously have not done as much research as you have. However, I find it curious that countries and scientists around the world believe that masks work, lockdowns work, vaccines work, etc. So, how does it come about that a large set of smart people think this way?
In addition, there are a lot of things that we aren't sure about. And the available information is murky and changing quickly. How can you tell what is true and what is not? Said differently, what was true, but is no longer true?
Even in this post, el gato malo says here is my theory and if this happens, then it strengthens my theory, and if this happens, then it weakens my theory. This is good science.
My problem is that while I am reasonably smart and well informed, I am not an expert in many of the domains necessary to make informed judgements about what is true and what is not. And, like other humans, I can be mislead by incomplete information. For example, earlier this year in LA we had ridiculous case rates and hospitals were overwhelmed. But then people started getting vaccinated and it turned out that the case load dramatically dropped here and it seemed that this was due to the vaccine. It certainly appeared to be. However, in retrospect, this could be a classic case of post hoc ergo propter hoc. Or it could be the case that the vaccine worked just fine on the variant we had then. I have no idea.
I'm just trying to understand what is going on so I can make the best decisions I can with the currently available information.
Re, not being a conspiracy theorist: My experience in life is that most people try to do the right thing. People don't come to work and say, I think I'll do a crappy job today. On the other hand, when you can take a group of well-intentioned people and put them into a large organization, you get a bureaucracy, and bureaucracies move slowly and maybe make bad decisions. But not always.
>>> My experience in life is that most people try to do the right thing.
They sure do. Serbs busy ethnic-cleansing the shit out of some Croats are trying to build a better world for their children. Taliban selling Yadzidi children in slave auctions to be raped to death are doing the right thing to create a globe free of evil infidels. Liberal social workers in early 20th century NYC convincing women of color to get themselves sterilized because they're genetically inferior are positive they're doing the right thing for everyone, just like they do today when they tell you that you're inherently racist by birth and need to spend the rest of your life groveling for it (to no ultimate redemption).
Everybody's trying to do the right thing. No one's the villain of their own story. I'm glad trusting everyone to have your best interests at heart has worked well for you up to now. It has not been true for literally anyone I've ever known.
I can empathize with your position. it's much easier for me as my background is in animal health. From the start (March 2020) I smelt a rat. The research up to that point was clear that masks do not work for respiratory viruses, that vaccines for coronaviruses were dismal failures and isolating the healthy lead to short term gains but huge long term losses.
Vaccination during pandemic waves was an absolute no-no and movement restrictions between countries with similar diseases laughable.
I think bureaucracy panicked and went in a destructive direction. Now they are invested, having spent vast amounts of tax payer money, they can't reverse course.
For me it is clear: if you haven't had the virus AND you are high risk, a vaccine may be helpful, but keep those early treatments handy. The rest is pure theater!
What happened was Fauci didn't want to admit he already knew what covid was because he'd spent the last 5 years paying China to cook it for him, and everyone else saw a moment of mass hysteria and saw an opportunity to consolidate totalitarian power not seen in a century.
Every and all established, research-based public health protocols don't suddenly turn into Opposite Day without a pretty big breakthrough heard around the world in all-caps headlines like "SCIENTIFIC BREAKTHROUGH! CLOTH STOPS VIRUSES, HEALTHY HUMANS NEED QUARANTINE!" Absolutely none of this was policy or scientific establishment prior to March 2020.
There was no sudden Renaissance of virology; they simply decided you're no longer allowed to argue with them and must play successively degrading rounds of Simon Says.
Big pharma dictates that vaccines work... go join the dots countries and scientists that are on the big pharmaceutical payroll and governments that are on their sponsored list... all approve lockdowns and masks...go join the dots investigate you ignorant FOOL.
I would not trust anyone who is in fear of losing their job if they don't tow the line. That would be most of our "officials" and even people in the private sector. This is all about making Pharma trillions and controlling the masses and maybe even population control.
You have to keep in mind that almost all of the authors are Masters of Public Health, which means they pro-vaccine activists writing in the journal of a pro-vaccine agency. These are not objective scientists. Still, ad-hominem is a weak argument so here is another, in addition to what I wrote about IFR.
On data integrity grounds, I would question a paper that relies on COVID death counting, when those numbers are so at odds with all-cause mortality. For example, MA has low excess all-cause mortality, but one of the worst per-capita COVID totals. OTOH, California has high excess all-cause mortality, but low per-capita COVID totals. Maybe I should post my code on github.
I want to see one that begins when the vaccines begin. And would even more like to see one that separates vaccinated from unvaccinated, minus the two week lag period.
I agree. In addition, yesterday the WSJ reported that an Israeli study found that "natural immunity was 27 times more effective than vaccinated immunity in preventing symptomatic infections". I find it odd that the US is ignoring natural immunity and requiring vaccinations. Is the Israeli study wrong?
I haven't looked at the study but there's nothing implausible-sounding about the results. Mid-July was before the plummet in infection efficacy; so the pseudo-vaccines were playing on easy mode - in fact, they probably had a lot of false positives for cases based on cases being rarer. And severe outcomes efficacy still looks strong in England and looked strong in Israel before the booster craziness. And, relative risk multipliers are great at portraying any change to a low absolute risk as a meteoric impact.
Most US states still seem to just be tipping into where Israel was at the beginning of July. That's when double-dosed started to dominate the hospital in absolute numbers, even though the severe outcome efficacy was solid.
Though, if our hospitals are venting up patients early on purpose, that will skew all the rates (middle-aged and younger patients, who are less vaccinated, will die more than otherwise).
We know testing is likely more common on the unvaccinated.
( was another curious move when the greatly reduced testing on the vaccinated. )
Also it is apparently true that the vaccinated are more likely to be asymptomatic. As such they also are not tested.
My unresolved question is “are the vaccinated more likely to die from disparate vaccine caused adverse events, ( of course, but what is the real number) and are those adverse event deaths recorded as… pick a potential cause likely to be an caused by the vaccines “? Always numbers we dont have.
This is quite interesting. My first thought is that booster shots probably just happened to hit the right seasonal point to have such a high correlation in Israel, which are of course points that you brought up. We can see that Palestine seems to be following in a slightly delayed manner as it has previously. Since there is such low vaccine/booster uptake in Palestine, I would think that implies that the boosters are unlikely to be a major driver of the increases, because otherwise we would see a diminished increase in Palestine or no increase at all. As we continue to monitor this data it will be interesting to see if the patterns continue to look similar (just with a delay) or if there is eventually some divergence between Israel/Palestine. It looks to me like the boosters just aren't really having much impact one way or the other.
Yeah, you released that shortly after my comment. Very interesting and consistent with the hypothesis that the boosters are causing this. It's quite irritating from a data perspective how they had to kick off that push a few weeks after Israel, i.e. with the same offset relationship that their death curves seem to show.
Really enjoying your work, keep it up fellow kitty :)
El Gato Malo, I thought of another potential statistical issue with the vaccinate two week increased vulnerability to Covid window. Those numbers should perhaps no longer count in any category, as they are effectively moved out of the vaccinated potential from infection, being very unlikely to be reinfected.
So they get Covid, and are counted as unvaccinated getting Covid, ( a two strike move) and still counted as vaccinated not getting Covid, even though they had Covid already and now likely benefit from natural immunity as well. ( So three strike jiggered; 1, out of their natural category, 2 into the unvaccinated category, and 3, back into the vaccinated category despite having natural immunity on top of vaccination.
I think any honest science would separate them into their own control group.
"you do the work first, then you make policy. doing the reverse is grabbing the first object you see and jumping out of a plane hoping you can figure out it’s a parachute on the way down. and we’ve certainly had about enough of that in the last 18 months…"
Can't help but feeling as a single, humble neuron, part of humanity's prefrontal cortex, fighting its basal ganglia surge.
Every development over these last 18 months isn't but a seizure, merely a symptom in that fight.
Being part of this worldwide neural network beats whatever the end result might be.
Feeling for this year and a half as in a free fall, one thing I'm sure, the only bet I'd take on a jumper out of a plane without parachute would actually be on a cat to keep gravity in check:
I used to think that maybe the shots were causing illness, but I now think that all of this is b/c Israel's crooked and corrupt leaders are promoting the full fascism package: the casedemic, the masks, passports and civil rights removal needed to fix the casedemic, but magically the casedemic only gets worse. Key points: Israel's vax percentage is similar to Sweden, Israel's excess mortality is pretty low (barely more than Sweden). Thus: it's all fascist theater. Sweden is not engaged in this casedemic nonsense: obsession with finding 'cases' (asymptomatic/sniffly people). Note that social media Jewhaters, who now have a fully legitimate reason to hate the Israeli government, actually support it's deployment of fascism and eugenics on Israelis.
i'd be a little careful with the vaccinated % comparison. israel was early, sweden was late.
in mid may, israel was 60%, sweden was 10%. it's all recent so they have not hit the fade part of the curve yet.
also, sweden vaccinated during a low seasonal period vs israel at a high one. it's possible that has effect as adding the increased vulnerability window during peak disease expression is a far bigger risk amplifier.
they also likely developed a lot more natural immunity early on in sweden.
israel has been running about +10% excess mortality while sweden is -10%. i would not call a 2000bp variance that crosses zero a small difference. that's quite large.
Overall, though I have no issues with the premise that the vax mania only makes things worse. We're dealing with a virus with 99.7% survival rate. It doesn't call for the societal obsession or vax obsession. Seems like every week or two another former football player dies 'suddenly' (today it was some former 49er player), and I'd have to assume that there are dozens(?) of people dying from the vaccines every day, scattered around the US. I've always thought: the vax is of near zero benefit to the healthy and seems to be damaging/killing a small percentage of recipients.
Possibly. But Israel is rolling out the full fascism package--whereas Sweden has from the start tried to actually do what is best for her citizens. The figures I've seen for Israel are more like 5-7% above normal, but similar to the US, I don't think Israel has used ambulatory treatment (one reason the US has been able to achieve around 12-13% excess mortality). So I can't prove that your take is wrong--but when I see the blatant lies coming out of Israeli leaders, far disproportionate to the amount of death, I'm inclined to think they have not done all they could to minimize death. And since they are lying a lot and we know that the pcr is a garbage test, I'm just less inclined to get into the Pegdenesque practice of engaging in deep statistical analysis of figures that seem to be fake, fraudulently and dishonestly generated...
Gato, wouldn't it also be fair to say that given their position on various mandates and greater cultivation of natural immunity (as you pointed out) EARLIER, that they likely had a greater seawall already built before delta showed up?
I think this makes the biggest difference between these two states, especially when the vaccines that Israel disseminated so rapidly turned out to be leaky garbage in terms of sterilizing spread.
Their vax % may be similar, but Sweden spent way more earlier time building herd immunity.
I use DuckDuckGo and not Google. I read an article from a woman in Ireland explaining 95% of individuals in Ireland have been vaccinated and that it has not stopped the infections is now evident and government and public health officials do not know what they are doing. I read a paper stating Covid attacks the cardiovascular system first and respiratory system second and that the minimum for an aerosol based virus we should be social distancing at is 15 feet apart. Personally I got the first two shots and they did not help.. I could literally feel my body weaken and lungs and heart weaken after the shots. (I've done meditations to become more aware of my body.) I have read many cases of death after the shots - young, with no underlying health issues but they "can't prove the death is from the shot (even after a few days or the next day or that day!) and studies are ongoing on cause of death." In those cases, it's the family member that watched them die that knew it was from the vaccine that's trying to warn others. I also have been reading about organ failure months to a year after recovery from Covid. We have no idea what this is doing to our organs 2 years down the line with no cure as it is now. Personally, for me, the mask helped - I wear cloth masks with filters in them. I'm never taking another covid shot ever again. Some easy, free meditations that I've done are like every time I walk into a room or whenever I remember, visualizing a colored ball or eye in the very center of my chest and one that I stopped after seeing enormous results (I would recommend doing this one temporarily) is slowly, over time, chanting "May" and "Thoth" (pronounced "Toe.") These meditations helped me realize things without the use of technology. Good luck.
Or depending on the credence you give project veritas, perhaps it's not that the vaccine makes you more susceptible, but that it's actively making people sick
I'm a bit alcohol, but just read the result that my super-pretty governor "Gramvbo New's Bom" just got 400000% percent of the vote, and would like to day, "Good job,1!"
Gato, I posted this is another thread, however it would be great to have someone so facile with data to look and and comment on the CDC "Study" the administration is using to prove their case for "pandemic of the unvaccinated".
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7037e1.htm?
In particular, they keep at the "11X more likely to die" as if it were gospel. It's a great Tweet-bite, but I don't think the study allows them to say this with any confidence. What say you, or anyone else who'd like to chime in?
I'm having a hard time squaring the claims of high vaccine effectiveness with the IFR (and size) of the current US COVID wave, which looks a lot like the winter wave. The ratio of deaths to infections is about 1% and rising, about the same as before. How can that be if the vast majority of vulnerable are now vaccinated? Then the infected should skew younger and a smaller fraction of infections should be fatal. But the IFR is seemingly unchanged.
i have a theory that may square that.
stay tuned tomorrow.
Really looking forward to a serious, rational take on this.
I've been getting this number thrown at me by everyone but my husband and my dogs.
I am looking forward to it as well!
Summer 2021 deaths really seem to be intentionally inflicted by hospitals. Total ignorance of even vitamin drips, early promotion of useless ventilators. That's all anecdotal since hospital care practices are so obscure. But many of the creepy "come look at this unvaccinated young person who croaked" news stories seem to have a lot of weird elements.
"Davy Macias, a 37-year-old registered nurse from Yucaipa, would succumb to COVID-19 on Aug. 26, eight days after delivering a baby girl she never got to hold because she was on a ventilator."
What? Why was she on a ventilator in the middle of 3rd trimester? The ICU admission rate for pregnant women infected with SC2 was .8 last year per the CDC - the same or less as all women aged 30 - 39.
"Her husband Daniel, 39, a middle school teacher, also was stricken by the coronavirus and spent his last days in a hospital intensive care unit. He died Thursday, leaving behind the couple’s five children, ages 7 and younger."
Again? Why? In this sample set of two, what are the odds that they both actually warranted ventilation (of course there's a selection bias of 100% when looking at deaths, but still).
Placed in a coma to have your child cut out from you and then die. It's the stuff of Johnny Got His Gun nightmares.
Our University hospital ICU is still treating with only Remdesivir and steroids. Nothing else. Criminal.
Are they also rushing to ventilate?
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1473309921004850
Remdesivir - no effect, of course. I looked at the South African Health Department's rapid reviews, the only drug making it through review is iv steroids.
No Vit C, vit D, Budesonide, Azithromycin, Colchicine, convalescent plasma, Ivermectin, HCQ......All reviewed, all labeled as inconclusive - don't use.
No wonder doctors and patients are helping themselves.
Remdesevir is not only not helpful, it is actually harmful. It is causing death by shutting down kidneys. Keep that poison far away from me...
Just putting this out there, but is it possible that the story seems weird and melodramatic because it's COMPLETE DOGSHIT?
Hospital overcrowded by horse paste comas, anyone?
> early promotion of useless ventilators
Maybe people should decline it on their POLST form?
I’ve been thinking about that. How does one do that? No vent and no remdesivir even if my husband wants it for me. Where can I get such living will in the USA?
If you have a primary doctor, they can help.
https://polst.org/state-programs/
I agree with this too. In addition, I am having a hard time squaring the various government actions with the results. I know everyone has been arguing about whether masks works, whether the unvaxed are causing a continuation of the pandemic, whether lockdowns work, etc. etc., but it would be great to see an overview of what the latest thinking is.
For example, I have been to the Hollywood Bowl to see concerts this summer (an outdoor amphitheater that seats about 17,000 people. The have huge screens that show video of the performers as well as ads before the show begins. Even at the end of the summer they were advising people to wash their hands to stop the spread. We know this doesn't matter, but people keep saying it.
I really can't figure out the mask situation. Orange County, right next to LA county, doesn't have mask mandates but LA county does. It appears that their covid problems are no different than LA's. Why is that?
My daughter attends the local public high school and they are required to wear masks. They have been in session for about a month now, and there are about 2500 students and staff. The cumulative cases for the last month is: 7. Staff is 93% vaxxed and students are about 85% vaxxed. Plus, our town has a very low number of cases in the first place. I think having only 7 cases in a month is pretty darn good! Should I attribute this to masking? Vaxxes? Low incidence in the community? Luck?
I am not a conspiracy theory believer. I do think that there is a lot of misinformation that is being repeated as dogma. I want to know what is BS so that I, and my family, can live our lives, and I don't waste energy tilting at windmills.
I think my little rant here is relevant to this thread because Israel has been held up as the model place -- and yet despite their vaccinations, their masks, and their vax passes, they still have outbreaks that are worse than before. But I should be careful with the word outbreaks as that is the number of cases, not necessarily that their hospitals are overwhelmed or that they have a large number of deaths to go with the cases.
Literally every one of these issues- masks, lockdowns, vaccine mandates- have been asked of and answered by the data for anyone with the will to look at them.
These have all been addressed, sometimes multiple times, right in this substack and countless others. Virtually everyone dissenting from the previously-unheard-of positions of masks, lockdowns, and vaccine mandates are cancelled, fired, and censored. The word "misinformation," which you used, invariably describes those so punished.
Masks don't work. Lockdowns don't work. Vaccines don't stop spread and may actually worsen them. The unvaccinated are not responsible for greater spread or virus mutation.
I'm sorry you're worried about being seen as a "conspiracy theory believer." I'm worried about someday being put in a camp or shot.
I obviously have not done as much research as you have. However, I find it curious that countries and scientists around the world believe that masks work, lockdowns work, vaccines work, etc. So, how does it come about that a large set of smart people think this way?
In addition, there are a lot of things that we aren't sure about. And the available information is murky and changing quickly. How can you tell what is true and what is not? Said differently, what was true, but is no longer true?
Even in this post, el gato malo says here is my theory and if this happens, then it strengthens my theory, and if this happens, then it weakens my theory. This is good science.
My problem is that while I am reasonably smart and well informed, I am not an expert in many of the domains necessary to make informed judgements about what is true and what is not. And, like other humans, I can be mislead by incomplete information. For example, earlier this year in LA we had ridiculous case rates and hospitals were overwhelmed. But then people started getting vaccinated and it turned out that the case load dramatically dropped here and it seemed that this was due to the vaccine. It certainly appeared to be. However, in retrospect, this could be a classic case of post hoc ergo propter hoc. Or it could be the case that the vaccine worked just fine on the variant we had then. I have no idea.
I'm just trying to understand what is going on so I can make the best decisions I can with the currently available information.
Re, not being a conspiracy theorist: My experience in life is that most people try to do the right thing. People don't come to work and say, I think I'll do a crappy job today. On the other hand, when you can take a group of well-intentioned people and put them into a large organization, you get a bureaucracy, and bureaucracies move slowly and maybe make bad decisions. But not always.
>>> My experience in life is that most people try to do the right thing.
They sure do. Serbs busy ethnic-cleansing the shit out of some Croats are trying to build a better world for their children. Taliban selling Yadzidi children in slave auctions to be raped to death are doing the right thing to create a globe free of evil infidels. Liberal social workers in early 20th century NYC convincing women of color to get themselves sterilized because they're genetically inferior are positive they're doing the right thing for everyone, just like they do today when they tell you that you're inherently racist by birth and need to spend the rest of your life groveling for it (to no ultimate redemption).
Everybody's trying to do the right thing. No one's the villain of their own story. I'm glad trusting everyone to have your best interests at heart has worked well for you up to now. It has not been true for literally anyone I've ever known.
Yup. "For the common good" led right to the Reign of Terror.
Etc.
I can empathize with your position. it's much easier for me as my background is in animal health. From the start (March 2020) I smelt a rat. The research up to that point was clear that masks do not work for respiratory viruses, that vaccines for coronaviruses were dismal failures and isolating the healthy lead to short term gains but huge long term losses.
Vaccination during pandemic waves was an absolute no-no and movement restrictions between countries with similar diseases laughable.
I think bureaucracy panicked and went in a destructive direction. Now they are invested, having spent vast amounts of tax payer money, they can't reverse course.
For me it is clear: if you haven't had the virus AND you are high risk, a vaccine may be helpful, but keep those early treatments handy. The rest is pure theater!
What happened was Fauci didn't want to admit he already knew what covid was because he'd spent the last 5 years paying China to cook it for him, and everyone else saw a moment of mass hysteria and saw an opportunity to consolidate totalitarian power not seen in a century.
Every and all established, research-based public health protocols don't suddenly turn into Opposite Day without a pretty big breakthrough heard around the world in all-caps headlines like "SCIENTIFIC BREAKTHROUGH! CLOTH STOPS VIRUSES, HEALTHY HUMANS NEED QUARANTINE!" Absolutely none of this was policy or scientific establishment prior to March 2020.
There was no sudden Renaissance of virology; they simply decided you're no longer allowed to argue with them and must play successively degrading rounds of Simon Says.
You are fucking delusional . A vaccine may be helpful? Go read and study the graphs again,better sti.l rather go hang yourself.
>>>> I find it curious that countries and scientists around the world believe that masks work, lockdowns work, vaccines work, etc.
Your experience of the past year and a half has obviously been very different from mine.
You should probably carry on trusting the experts in light of the excellent work they've done so far. Enjoy.
Big pharma dictates that vaccines work... go join the dots countries and scientists that are on the big pharmaceutical payroll and governments that are on their sponsored list... all approve lockdowns and masks...go join the dots investigate you ignorant FOOL.
You're a delusional vaxxer period.
I would not trust anyone who is in fear of losing their job if they don't tow the line. That would be most of our "officials" and even people in the private sector. This is all about making Pharma trillions and controlling the masses and maybe even population control.
You have to keep in mind that almost all of the authors are Masters of Public Health, which means they pro-vaccine activists writing in the journal of a pro-vaccine agency. These are not objective scientists. Still, ad-hominem is a weak argument so here is another, in addition to what I wrote about IFR.
On data integrity grounds, I would question a paper that relies on COVID death counting, when those numbers are so at odds with all-cause mortality. For example, MA has low excess all-cause mortality, but one of the worst per-capita COVID totals. OTOH, California has high excess all-cause mortality, but low per-capita COVID totals. Maybe I should post my code on github.
https://pasteboard.co/AGwfweN1K4G7.png
Good excess death graphic.
I want to see one that begins when the vaccines begin. And would even more like to see one that separates vaccinated from unvaccinated, minus the two week lag period.
Not much chance of finding that.
Thanks for your helpful reply! Is there a useful way to visualize excess mortality vs covid death per capita? Has anyone done that?
I agree. In addition, yesterday the WSJ reported that an Israeli study found that "natural immunity was 27 times more effective than vaccinated immunity in preventing symptomatic infections". I find it odd that the US is ignoring natural immunity and requiring vaccinations. Is the Israeli study wrong?
I haven't looked at the study but there's nothing implausible-sounding about the results. Mid-July was before the plummet in infection efficacy; so the pseudo-vaccines were playing on easy mode - in fact, they probably had a lot of false positives for cases based on cases being rarer. And severe outcomes efficacy still looks strong in England and looked strong in Israel before the booster craziness. And, relative risk multipliers are great at portraying any change to a low absolute risk as a meteoric impact.
Most US states still seem to just be tipping into where Israel was at the beginning of July. That's when double-dosed started to dominate the hospital in absolute numbers, even though the severe outcome efficacy was solid.
Though, if our hospitals are venting up patients early on purpose, that will skew all the rates (middle-aged and younger patients, who are less vaccinated, will die more than otherwise).
We know testing is likely more common on the unvaccinated.
( was another curious move when the greatly reduced testing on the vaccinated. )
Also it is apparently true that the vaccinated are more likely to be asymptomatic. As such they also are not tested.
My unresolved question is “are the vaccinated more likely to die from disparate vaccine caused adverse events, ( of course, but what is the real number) and are those adverse event deaths recorded as… pick a potential cause likely to be an caused by the vaccines “? Always numbers we dont have.
It’s not a dead Israeli canary. It’s just resting
It’s shuffled off the mortal coil.
No, no, it’s just stunned
Believe me... it's a DEAD CANARY. WAIT AND SEE
It's pining for Mount Kanaim
Lovely plumage the Israeli yellow
"Vaccine driven death." Them's fighting words to this administration. You're off the script. Remember, this is a "pandemic of the unvaccinated".
Thank you! This is very scary. Hope the picture becomes clear in next couple weeks...before millions more take a booster in the US, UK, and elsewhere.
And, if the boosters are causing this, what next?
This is quite interesting. My first thought is that booster shots probably just happened to hit the right seasonal point to have such a high correlation in Israel, which are of course points that you brought up. We can see that Palestine seems to be following in a slightly delayed manner as it has previously. Since there is such low vaccine/booster uptake in Palestine, I would think that implies that the boosters are unlikely to be a major driver of the increases, because otherwise we would see a diminished increase in Palestine or no increase at all. As we continue to monitor this data it will be interesting to see if the patterns continue to look similar (just with a delay) or if there is eventually some divergence between Israel/Palestine. It looks to me like the boosters just aren't really having much impact one way or the other.
there is a significant possible confound there.
it turns out palestine kicked off a big vaccination push right before their death rate started to spike.
https://boriquagato.substack.com/p/do-first-vaccination-shots-increase
Yeah, you released that shortly after my comment. Very interesting and consistent with the hypothesis that the boosters are causing this. It's quite irritating from a data perspective how they had to kick off that push a few weeks after Israel, i.e. with the same offset relationship that their death curves seem to show.
Really enjoying your work, keep it up fellow kitty :)
El Gato Malo, I thought of another potential statistical issue with the vaccinate two week increased vulnerability to Covid window. Those numbers should perhaps no longer count in any category, as they are effectively moved out of the vaccinated potential from infection, being very unlikely to be reinfected.
So they get Covid, and are counted as unvaccinated getting Covid, ( a two strike move) and still counted as vaccinated not getting Covid, even though they had Covid already and now likely benefit from natural immunity as well. ( So three strike jiggered; 1, out of their natural category, 2 into the unvaccinated category, and 3, back into the vaccinated category despite having natural immunity on top of vaccination.
I think any honest science would separate them into their own control group.
"you do the work first, then you make policy. doing the reverse is grabbing the first object you see and jumping out of a plane hoping you can figure out it’s a parachute on the way down. and we’ve certainly had about enough of that in the last 18 months…"
Can't help but feeling as a single, humble neuron, part of humanity's prefrontal cortex, fighting its basal ganglia surge.
Every development over these last 18 months isn't but a seizure, merely a symptom in that fight.
Being part of this worldwide neural network beats whatever the end result might be.
Feeling for this year and a half as in a free fall, one thing I'm sure, the only bet I'd take on a jumper out of a plane without parachute would actually be on a cat to keep gravity in check:
https://www.businessinsider.com/how-cat-survived-32-story-fall-2018-10
You only have to control the fall to be able to rise back.
I've started to accumulate the best daily newslinks about the mandates, for anyone interested: https://patrick.net/links
I used to think that maybe the shots were causing illness, but I now think that all of this is b/c Israel's crooked and corrupt leaders are promoting the full fascism package: the casedemic, the masks, passports and civil rights removal needed to fix the casedemic, but magically the casedemic only gets worse. Key points: Israel's vax percentage is similar to Sweden, Israel's excess mortality is pretty low (barely more than Sweden). Thus: it's all fascist theater. Sweden is not engaged in this casedemic nonsense: obsession with finding 'cases' (asymptomatic/sniffly people). Note that social media Jewhaters, who now have a fully legitimate reason to hate the Israeli government, actually support it's deployment of fascism and eugenics on Israelis.
i'd be a little careful with the vaccinated % comparison. israel was early, sweden was late.
in mid may, israel was 60%, sweden was 10%. it's all recent so they have not hit the fade part of the curve yet.
also, sweden vaccinated during a low seasonal period vs israel at a high one. it's possible that has effect as adding the increased vulnerability window during peak disease expression is a far bigger risk amplifier.
they also likely developed a lot more natural immunity early on in sweden.
israel has been running about +10% excess mortality while sweden is -10%. i would not call a 2000bp variance that crosses zero a small difference. that's quite large.
Overall, though I have no issues with the premise that the vax mania only makes things worse. We're dealing with a virus with 99.7% survival rate. It doesn't call for the societal obsession or vax obsession. Seems like every week or two another former football player dies 'suddenly' (today it was some former 49er player), and I'd have to assume that there are dozens(?) of people dying from the vaccines every day, scattered around the US. I've always thought: the vax is of near zero benefit to the healthy and seems to be damaging/killing a small percentage of recipients.
Possibly. But Israel is rolling out the full fascism package--whereas Sweden has from the start tried to actually do what is best for her citizens. The figures I've seen for Israel are more like 5-7% above normal, but similar to the US, I don't think Israel has used ambulatory treatment (one reason the US has been able to achieve around 12-13% excess mortality). So I can't prove that your take is wrong--but when I see the blatant lies coming out of Israeli leaders, far disproportionate to the amount of death, I'm inclined to think they have not done all they could to minimize death. And since they are lying a lot and we know that the pcr is a garbage test, I'm just less inclined to get into the Pegdenesque practice of engaging in deep statistical analysis of figures that seem to be fake, fraudulently and dishonestly generated...
sweden is a massive success story.
israel is a cautionary tale.
austrialia is like kafka and orwell had a love child.
Israeli leaders are treasonous sellouts and eugenicists. Stinks for them. Some realize it but most are just loyal lemmings.
Gato, wouldn't it also be fair to say that given their position on various mandates and greater cultivation of natural immunity (as you pointed out) EARLIER, that they likely had a greater seawall already built before delta showed up?
I think this makes the biggest difference between these two states, especially when the vaccines that Israel disseminated so rapidly turned out to be leaky garbage in terms of sterilizing spread.
Their vax % may be similar, but Sweden spent way more earlier time building herd immunity.
I use DuckDuckGo and not Google. I read an article from a woman in Ireland explaining 95% of individuals in Ireland have been vaccinated and that it has not stopped the infections is now evident and government and public health officials do not know what they are doing. I read a paper stating Covid attacks the cardiovascular system first and respiratory system second and that the minimum for an aerosol based virus we should be social distancing at is 15 feet apart. Personally I got the first two shots and they did not help.. I could literally feel my body weaken and lungs and heart weaken after the shots. (I've done meditations to become more aware of my body.) I have read many cases of death after the shots - young, with no underlying health issues but they "can't prove the death is from the shot (even after a few days or the next day or that day!) and studies are ongoing on cause of death." In those cases, it's the family member that watched them die that knew it was from the vaccine that's trying to warn others. I also have been reading about organ failure months to a year after recovery from Covid. We have no idea what this is doing to our organs 2 years down the line with no cure as it is now. Personally, for me, the mask helped - I wear cloth masks with filters in them. I'm never taking another covid shot ever again. Some easy, free meditations that I've done are like every time I walk into a room or whenever I remember, visualizing a colored ball or eye in the very center of my chest and one that I stopped after seeing enormous results (I would recommend doing this one temporarily) is slowly, over time, chanting "May" and "Thoth" (pronounced "Toe.") These meditations helped me realize things without the use of technology. Good luck.
Or depending on the credence you give project veritas, perhaps it's not that the vaccine makes you more susceptible, but that it's actively making people sick
Apparently cats are good with maths. One mouse two mouse dead mouse blue mouse.
I'm a bit alcohol, but just read the result that my super-pretty governor "Gramvbo New's Bom" just got 400000% percent of the vote, and would like to day, "Good job,1!"
Congratulations on avoiding the tyranny of a black white supremacist.
Israel can only be a "Canary" is US MFIC are listening.
Thank you for such thoughtful analysis.
... if ... US MFIC are listening.