Thank you for this analysis Gato. I think the issue here is that the general public has the prevailing mindset that the vaccines are supposed to prevent people from becoming infected, experiencing moderate symptoms, and spreading the virus to others. I think people are finally starting to realize this is not the case...but rather than admit the vaccines aren't as useful as they were told, they are doubling down and blaming the unvaccinated for spreading the virus around to those who are vaccinated.
I think it's pretty obvious that this is not true. Based on the numbers we are seeing with this most recent rise in positive tests among symptomatic vaccinated individuals, it's becoming more clear that these vaccines do not prevent infection or contagion across the general population. I agree with your analysis that in the more vulnerable, and older cohorts, they seem to be showing effectiveness. However, I just don't see much benefit here across the generally healthy population. The recent data showing significant outperformance in natural immunity vs the vaccine makes it abundantly clear that the vaccines are mostly worthless in the healthy cohort.
Fair analysis. People tend to miss that the first rule is to make sure your compared populations are actually comparable. This also BTW strongly contradicts the claims, unsupported by any data but just by media trumpeting of Fauci and CDC, that 99.xx% of deaths are in the unvaccinated. Highly implausible.
Great article and I must add we really miss you on "that other" site. The one thing that really strikes me (you touch on this without really emphasizing it) is how far NONVAXXED patient and death numbers have fallen in Israel. Thus while a high at risk cohort may give lie to the contention that the Pfizer vaccine--the one Israel uses--is failing, I do think the absolute drop in all serious covid cases is a useful tool in a mapping our final exit from this shitshow whether due to herd immunity, better clinical treatment or the presence of other factors. Also, absolute numbers of 'bad cases' dropping seems to augur against leaning so hard on vaccination whatever their real rate of protection. BTW we see the same thing in the US--though case numbers are going up, the rate of deaths is basically flat even after allowing for a two week lag.
Agreed. But how does this compare with how we were promised that if we took one of these vaccines, we have a nearly zero chance of transmitting COVID or ending up in the hospital? Also, why is Pfizer suggesting a third shot?
I've heard that vaccinating into a pandemic is problematic. Particularly in this case because the virus will mutate to stay alive and since mRNA does not keep people from getting the virus, it can actually speed up the rate of mutation. Any truth to this? Will we have different challenges down the road as a result?
Excellent analysis Gato, even by your high standards!
This is the kind of empirical work people in public health ought to be doing. Instead they leave it to you, and to other talented outsiders on Twitter or Substack to do it.
There is a poster on Twitter who had graphs about Israel that included a category for unvaccinated but recovered from Covid, and the numbers of reinfection in that group were very low. (I tried to find the information so I could be more specific, but I couldn't find it.) The graphs weren't broken down by age and didn't show whether one group or the other was being more heavily tested, however.
Excellent article. This is the first time I have read a good explanation for why hospitalization rates for CV19 have more vaxed people than expected by simple calculation
Thank you for this analysis Gato. I think the issue here is that the general public has the prevailing mindset that the vaccines are supposed to prevent people from becoming infected, experiencing moderate symptoms, and spreading the virus to others. I think people are finally starting to realize this is not the case...but rather than admit the vaccines aren't as useful as they were told, they are doubling down and blaming the unvaccinated for spreading the virus around to those who are vaccinated.
I think it's pretty obvious that this is not true. Based on the numbers we are seeing with this most recent rise in positive tests among symptomatic vaccinated individuals, it's becoming more clear that these vaccines do not prevent infection or contagion across the general population. I agree with your analysis that in the more vulnerable, and older cohorts, they seem to be showing effectiveness. However, I just don't see much benefit here across the generally healthy population. The recent data showing significant outperformance in natural immunity vs the vaccine makes it abundantly clear that the vaccines are mostly worthless in the healthy cohort.
Fair analysis. People tend to miss that the first rule is to make sure your compared populations are actually comparable. This also BTW strongly contradicts the claims, unsupported by any data but just by media trumpeting of Fauci and CDC, that 99.xx% of deaths are in the unvaccinated. Highly implausible.
The true test of the vaccines will be this fall.
Great article and I must add we really miss you on "that other" site. The one thing that really strikes me (you touch on this without really emphasizing it) is how far NONVAXXED patient and death numbers have fallen in Israel. Thus while a high at risk cohort may give lie to the contention that the Pfizer vaccine--the one Israel uses--is failing, I do think the absolute drop in all serious covid cases is a useful tool in a mapping our final exit from this shitshow whether due to herd immunity, better clinical treatment or the presence of other factors. Also, absolute numbers of 'bad cases' dropping seems to augur against leaning so hard on vaccination whatever their real rate of protection. BTW we see the same thing in the US--though case numbers are going up, the rate of deaths is basically flat even after allowing for a two week lag.
Great piece. Excellent perspective. Everyone, no matter what they think, should read it.
Agreed. But how does this compare with how we were promised that if we took one of these vaccines, we have a nearly zero chance of transmitting COVID or ending up in the hospital? Also, why is Pfizer suggesting a third shot?
I've heard that vaccinating into a pandemic is problematic. Particularly in this case because the virus will mutate to stay alive and since mRNA does not keep people from getting the virus, it can actually speed up the rate of mutation. Any truth to this? Will we have different challenges down the road as a result?
Excellent analysis Gato, even by your high standards!
This is the kind of empirical work people in public health ought to be doing. Instead they leave it to you, and to other talented outsiders on Twitter or Substack to do it.
Thank you. 1000x thank you.
Excellent writeup
There is a poster on Twitter who had graphs about Israel that included a category for unvaccinated but recovered from Covid, and the numbers of reinfection in that group were very low. (I tried to find the information so I could be more specific, but I couldn't find it.) The graphs weren't broken down by age and didn't show whether one group or the other was being more heavily tested, however.
Good overall analysis -- thanks!
Thank you for this excellent post. You have a gift for clearly explaining complex scientific concepts.
If vaccines don't work well for immune compromised then doesn't the burden rest even more so on the healthy, unvaccinated to check th spread?
Excellent post. Thanks for putting in the time on it.
Excellent article. This is the first time I have read a good explanation for why hospitalization rates for CV19 have more vaxed people than expected by simple calculation