the truth about JFK et al

and why "intelligence community data dumps" are never going to be what you think they are

i hate to be "kitty downer" on the JFK et al document dump, but the odds on bet is pretty simple:

there will be so many fake reports and so much tinsel in this massive pile of mess that there will simply be no way to arrive at any sort of ground state truth.

the CIA had lots of time to make up fake stories here to CYA and "paper the file" and they were notorious back in the day for having large networks of fake operatives they used to generate fake intel and to steal bribe money for themselves or other purposes.

(this is not to imply that they stopped doing this, only that they seem to have lost the notoriety…)

there will be no "bottom of this" to get to, just a rabbithole of mirrors in which everyone will be able to find some doc to wave around that suits their hobbyhorse but where the whole will amount to nothing but self-contradictory bales of yarn with no obvious beginning or end.

this will be a massive confirmation bias trap and one we need to be very careful of.

eg.

this document contains whatever you take into it hiding there for you. one of a certain mindset could start screaming “smoking gun” that JFK junior is here accusing joe biden of being a traitor and that he wound up killed over it.

but none of those facts are definitively in evidence in any conclusive fashion.

it’s easy to say “see, i knew it, joe sold out to ukraine and china and iran or whoever else, the man was always a manchurian candidate for hire and likely so was BO” and present this as “told ya so!”

but what does this really say?

honestly, not much.

politicians call each other traitors with some frequency and it can mean anyhting from real traitor status like “hey, why do you keep sleeping with chinese spies and selling our tech” or just “you have sold out what i view to be american values” or even “i just love yelling “traitor” at anyone who disagrees with me.”

30 seconds with grok makes this obvious.

so what did JFK jr mean in his letter? did it have any ties to later events/his assassination?

who knows? there is just not enough information of context to reach a high confidence conclusion. this is more rorschach test than sound foundation for a logical chain. the data is just too ambiguous and incomplete. they call this sort of stuff “a maze of mirrors” for a reason and there are entire intelligence sub-specialties in occluding signal by adding the right kind of noise.

there are going to be a lot of temptations to jump to a lot of conclusions here, but most are likely to be unwarranted.

probably pays to reserve judgement.

the more i look at this whole “data dumps on long controversial subjects” topic, the less likely i think it is to yield much useful insight.

you just get this.

the epstein issue is even more confusing. i still have zero definitive idea about what they were going for with the “release of 1000’s of fully redacted pages.” it was bizarre and not in keeping with the big claims and surely they knew it would be a flop.

i wonder (and get your tinfoil on, were going rabbit holing) if that was sort of the point. perhaps the audience was not us, but the ones on the lists and who made the lists. perhaps the goal was not to name and shame them, but to show them just how extensive the catalogues are and give them a nice big scare not only about “release day” but about what might be released later.

it’s proof of kompromat, validateable really only by those with unredacted copies of the docs, a sort of one time pad code shared in public with factions of the deep state.

there was really no one else who could have read that message.

given his ties, past exonerations of great suspiciousness, and his truly implausible “was suicided” denouement, the idea of epstien as a blackmail op tied to intelligence agencies of who knows what nations looks like a reasonable bet, especially given ghislaine and her family ties to mossad.

i think the trump gang realized how deep the national security, intelligence community, and foreign intelligence community tentacles reached down into this mess of kompromat on powerful people and are chickening out or getting muscled hard by agencies that have massive influence and do not want their names (or their lists of agents/puppets) dragged into this.

perhaps this was how they pushed back and showed that they too know how to play this game.

assuming this is so (and again, this is supposition not fact) it would actually create quite an interesting set of incentives as it sets up a sort of mutually assured destruction scenario and oddly, MAD systems can be highly stable, even productive.

on one side you have the intel community that does NOT want its role in pedo honeypots exposed, the size of the op, the profile of the people, and the mass destruction of carefully created and cultivated networks.

on the other, you have the MAGA/DOGE gang who could expose them.

but if they do, they can only do it once. you ring that bell, it cannot be unrung. it’s a single use weapon as once deployed, the IC no longer has any incentive not to go to full war on you and that would get supremely ugly.

so you get a sort of uneasy détente where the IC agrees not to play against trump or get in the way of DOGE and agrees to some cuts and step-backs and trump agrees not to ring the bell, a sort of set of mutual exclusion zones and freedoms to operate.

this information may be more useful withheld than released.

this would obviously be disappointing in some ways and useful in others. it’s just the grotesquerie of politics and unfortunately inevitable once you allow states to become this powerful.

such power creates what amounts to a permanent war footing in mentality and in the praxis of statecraft.

and war is never honest.

"In wartime, truth is so precious that she should always be attended by a bodyguard of lies."

- Winston Churchill

“the life of the spy is to know, not to be known”