we’re seeing more and more data like this where vaccinated staff at hospitals or individuals are carrying massive viral loads of covid before showing any symptoms and infecting one another (and likely patients as well)
studies are all well and good, but everyone has been so inundated with them and there is so much data, obfuscation, and manipulation that most people just do not care. people cling to their priors and don’t really change their minds. they find data to suit.
those who could be convinced by data long since picked a side. but what about the rest of humanity?
what’s going to shape their views?
it’s going to be what they see and what they live. and i think it’s going to increasingly look like this:
(this happened just this morning and yes, the i here is really me)
i was just having a conversation with a friend in san juan.
he lives with his GF who is an MD and who has treated covid patients in a hospital right back to PR’s “patient zero” off the cruise ship.
they are both vaccinated.
they both caught covid last week.
6 out of 10 of the people they had dinner with caught it.
all were vaccinated and dinner was at a restaurant that required proof of vaccination to enter.
(PR has mandated vaccine passports/proof for restaurants that want to run at anything over 50% capacity. it also mandates indoor masks.)
this was not a PCR+ trace infection. his direct description was:
“Yea we’re vaxed, we’re better today, last week sucked. Couldn’t stop coughing and just no energy.”
so, not a super severe case, but not a mild one either. sounds like a crappy flu.
the response to this is going to be simple:
these stories seem to be everywhere. my biz partner and his wife got vaccinated to travel to europe this summer (april vaxx date). they got covid in august. so did her mom who was also vaccinated. so did their kids.
everyone knows stories like this now of the vaccinated getting sick and spreading covid. and this is going to affect outlooks and change minds.
how do you sustain belief in vaccines to stop spread when you see them not stopping spread? people are getting real cases of covid post vaccination and are spreading it as well.
suddenly, you see data like this in a new light because it gels with your direct, personal experience.
it’s not what we were sold. we were sold “get your life back” and “100% efficacy.” we were told this would keep us from getting sick and spreading disease.
now, at best, it’s a mitigation of severity and those claims too are increasingly under challenge because it looks like the vaccines fade in efficacy rapidly.
suddenly, it’s “boosters” and watching your friends get sick despite having complied.
this will gut the credibility of health authorities because it’s clear they were wrong.
you can control the media and the politicians, but you cannot stop what people see or what they experience and when those experiences contradict what you are telling them, they’ll realize you’ve been telling porky pies.
so just what is the argument for vaccine passports when 6 in 10 vaccinated people in a vaxxed only restaurant all get covid? “it could have been worse?” this is not a compelling narrative.
where is the protection? where is the basic logic?
this story is about to unravel like an old sweater because the lived experience cannot be suppressed.
some will fight it and demand more shots and more faith, but their numbers will dwindle and they will now be fighting the already vaxxed who complied to get by and now feel hard done by and lied to.
How long will it take for the "blame the unvaxxed" people to realize that sooner or later, some of us will start "blaming the vaxxed" for the surge? My guess, unlike yours Sir Bad Cat, is never. Despite the obvious data from Israel and elsewhere, I *STILL* have friends, and some of them who are MDs, who still cry out, "Get your vax!" Religion is hard to shake. The COVID dumpster fire became religious a while back. #GetsBumpyFromHere
I think this winter will be shitshow (technical term here lol). The timing to the fading efficacy and the northern flu season is going to be a perfect storm. The question is, does the vaccine make things worse? Well, the real question is, does the US collect the right data en masse to ensure that analysis can happen? And is it available?
I’m not sure about things like ADE, vaccine derived mutations, etc. but people will change their perceptions if the storm hits the way I think it does. In the end, we are shaped by our experiences around us, regardless of facts presented at times. If this happens, the covid vaccine will become a punch line of a bad joke.
What about sunk costs? I worry people will hold tight. But I love the optimism of this post! I needed it today when the mask mandate when back into effect in IL..
On the other hand, doomsday cults always have an explanation when the rapture doesn't arrive on schedule.
The one I'm seeing here in Faucistan is an explicit Dolchstoßlegende:
"We would have won, but the Bad Minority stabbed us in the back" -- i.e. people who didn't get vaccinated allowed it to spread and mutate and evolve fangs and claws and have its way with our women, etc.
Still, I try to be optimistic: each time Doomsday doesn't come, adherents at the margin will get disillusioned, and gradually it will be whittled down.
I agree to a point, el Gato. My concern is how the grifters will spin the message. Will they be honest with us and tell us that the therapeutics don’t work, which won’t surprise many in this thread as the trials were games by only including under 70 and healthy folks, or will they blame the unvaxxed, Trump, white supremacists, climate change and irreverent pricks like me? I will lay 2-1 odds that they reach for one or two of these out of the gate. Any takers? BTW, get ready for the “Trump rushed the vaccines” narrative once we head into flu season. Based on what I have seen, unelected health administrators, Trump haters and COVID hall monitors will cling to their narratives until the bitter end.
So if the only protection is to have the "vaccine" stimulate antibody production, and this requires constant "top-ups", then by implication they want your body to be producing antibodies 24/7 over weeks, or I guess, months? Is this not an unhealthy condition long term?
The key will then be to what extent the double-vax reduces hospitalization and death. No one beyond the very frail should take a booster when there is NO data to back up the value of taking one, and plenty of side effects.
I predict a hard backfiring in some places where they are requiring vax and still testing (looking at you Standford and MIT). The cognitive dissonance has been strong, but reality has a funny way of persisting.
One of my fathers closest friends has was double vaccinated in March along with his wife. A few weeks ago they both caught covid, my fathers friend is now coughing up blood and his wife has been hospitalised. #vaccines have failed.
oh yeah, I am already seeing it with FB "friends"- plus they add "if only everyone would wear their masks" kind of thing. Entertaining. QUESTION: How accurate is VAERs? I would like to use them as a source, but Reuters shot them down, saying "anyone" could post a side effect/reaction/death etc. which I know isn't true, but still. Thanks!
I have not needed to travel internationally from the UK since the start of this shit show, but I now need to go to the Netherlands from the UK. They are hysterically demanding nor only both shots but still 10 days quarantine as well. Probably brexit influenced perversity - as they do not require either from a lot of other EU schengen countries.
Trying to work out a possible way around it (I was coerced into the first AZ shot but desperately do not want the second one) is making my head hurt & looking incredibly difficult 🤬. At least in the US people (I don't think) have these insane inter state travel restrictions.
Hopefully what's going on at Israel awakes more people. Many have taken the jab seeing it as the ticket back to normal. We should know already we cannot do that with politicians as they have been emulating Darth Vader to the letter ("I am altering the deal, pray I don’t alter it any further").
And alas, the issue I see with some of those who got sick despite the jab is the statement "It could have been worse without the jab". How do they know that? Sadly, many won't easily accept they have been duped because that would imply admitting they were fooled by government and public health officials.
As my covidan mom says, 'how can you know if you don't watch the news?' And so they will go down with the ship as well everyone who relies upon the media for their schtick.
Go and look at Nate Silver's thread on Twitter yesterday. He posted a couple of questioning the narrative posts, really riled the left up, then this:
But he's back at it again this AM, nagging him, this 'having lost the plot." It's sorta like a self-parody.
"you cannot stop what people see or what they experience"
I believe this, as long as their mind is not stuck inside the identity of their phone world. When I was in Tanzania for nine months (and it is still very much 2019 inside the country) I would ask why they didn't fall for it (very few have smartphones) and they would reply along these lines: 'we can see if our neighbors have it, the word of mouth, on the street, we know what is real.'
But I question whether the ultra smartphone tethered Covidians know what is real any longer in order to have that experience. All that said, the injection is not like a mask. It is poison to many with side effects. We will have to see what the fall-off rate is for the 3rd shot. If it's only like 10-15% or if it's like 30-40% that say no. If it's the latter then we can expect this to end.
"Who are you going to believe, the New York Times or your own lying eyes?" essentially sums up a conversation I had with my rarely heard from First Estate uncle who has been sheltering in his summer home waiting for NYC to "come back", as he puts it. He's looking forward to his booster shot and pooh-poohs these anecdotes even when I mentioned that the fully vaccinated Rev. Jesse Jackson and his wife both caught COVID and landed in ICU (Mrs. Jackson, though hear the Rev. is doing better).
Unfortunately, this will go down in history as a great failure of the FDA: I've worked on CRO's doing clinical trials, and it looked to me that Pfizer designed their studies the same way we did: oversample subjects under 50, white, male, no comorbidities. Sure, they had to pick from all groups but you can tip the scales by oversampling this way. Now reality from Israel and increasingly domestic evidence point to something suspected but buried: over 60 and/or over 6 months from "fully vaccinated" and protection wanes quickly.
The only good thing I can see is that immunity is highest here in late summer so maybe a good number can get it out of the way now, we do appear to be at or near the top of the curve now.
California Democrats Drop Bill to "Mandate" Vaccinations. Good foot soldier that it is, the LA Times tries to cast this as anything but a defeat (extra time is simply needed to "craft the strongest bill possible", etc., more junk, etc., more Libby cracker bullshit, etc.) but it seems like this may be watershed moment. Article does mention that an onslaught of phone calls and protests to legislators may have been a contributing reason for the retreat. Really:)?
Told u this shit is gonna fall apart, I just got it last week, totally die to the mandate, both my wife & I stayed coof free for the whole time, however we got it last week, my wife had tremendous side effects, all day the day after, absolutely horrible
Hope springs eternal. I would say everyone I know who knows this is happening just glazes over if you talk about it. Total cognitive dissonance. You don't seem to realize how powerful that is.
Folks ARE saying: THe passports will dramatically reduce infections ANd the push people to get the shots
If you are correct about the vaccines, we should see a major spike in Europe over the winter. They had a much slower initial rollout, so most are still within 3-5 months of vaccination. The UK and Canada should provide some interesting data. They rolled out the vaccines around the same time as us, but spaced the second doses longer apart (more out of necessity). One possible explanation for the waning efficacy is that the second doses were dispensed too soon after the first.
I wish I could be as optimistic. What's needed is for a new media storm to take over and people will stop thinking about covid and the passports will just fade away. Unless it's truly something more devious, then we're screwed
Last winter everybody knew somebody who got the virus but didn't really get sick.
This winter everybody will know somebody who got 'fully jabbed' and got very sick.
“The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command.”
—George Orwell, 1984
Can we please make Orwell fiction again?
How long will it take for the "blame the unvaxxed" people to realize that sooner or later, some of us will start "blaming the vaxxed" for the surge? My guess, unlike yours Sir Bad Cat, is never. Despite the obvious data from Israel and elsewhere, I *STILL* have friends, and some of them who are MDs, who still cry out, "Get your vax!" Religion is hard to shake. The COVID dumpster fire became religious a while back. #GetsBumpyFromHere
I think this winter will be shitshow (technical term here lol). The timing to the fading efficacy and the northern flu season is going to be a perfect storm. The question is, does the vaccine make things worse? Well, the real question is, does the US collect the right data en masse to ensure that analysis can happen? And is it available?
I’m not sure about things like ADE, vaccine derived mutations, etc. but people will change their perceptions if the storm hits the way I think it does. In the end, we are shaped by our experiences around us, regardless of facts presented at times. If this happens, the covid vaccine will become a punch line of a bad joke.
What about sunk costs? I worry people will hold tight. But I love the optimism of this post! I needed it today when the mask mandate when back into effect in IL..
On the other hand, doomsday cults always have an explanation when the rapture doesn't arrive on schedule.
The one I'm seeing here in Faucistan is an explicit Dolchstoßlegende:
"We would have won, but the Bad Minority stabbed us in the back" -- i.e. people who didn't get vaccinated allowed it to spread and mutate and evolve fangs and claws and have its way with our women, etc.
Still, I try to be optimistic: each time Doomsday doesn't come, adherents at the margin will get disillusioned, and gradually it will be whittled down.
I agree to a point, el Gato. My concern is how the grifters will spin the message. Will they be honest with us and tell us that the therapeutics don’t work, which won’t surprise many in this thread as the trials were games by only including under 70 and healthy folks, or will they blame the unvaxxed, Trump, white supremacists, climate change and irreverent pricks like me? I will lay 2-1 odds that they reach for one or two of these out of the gate. Any takers? BTW, get ready for the “Trump rushed the vaccines” narrative once we head into flu season. Based on what I have seen, unelected health administrators, Trump haters and COVID hall monitors will cling to their narratives until the bitter end.
So if the only protection is to have the "vaccine" stimulate antibody production, and this requires constant "top-ups", then by implication they want your body to be producing antibodies 24/7 over weeks, or I guess, months? Is this not an unhealthy condition long term?
The key will then be to what extent the double-vax reduces hospitalization and death. No one beyond the very frail should take a booster when there is NO data to back up the value of taking one, and plenty of side effects.
The push for third, or more booster shots brings to mind Jason Fung's book, The Cancer Code, this specific section (pg. 173):
"WHAT CAUSES CANCER?
Virtually any form of cellular or DNA damage may cause cancer .... The damage induced must be both:
sublethal and
chronic"
Doesn't these repeat mRNA vaccines make you wonder?
now your friends have 13 times the protection they had from the mostly useless vax.
my ball park estimate of consumer risk of "the vaxx works better than unvax" is about 80% the statement is false.
maybe a slight decline in icu for high risk elders (30% eyeballing israel data).
I predict a hard backfiring in some places where they are requiring vax and still testing (looking at you Standford and MIT). The cognitive dissonance has been strong, but reality has a funny way of persisting.
Nick George Flag of Cyprus
@the_nick_nick
Replying to
@MarkChangizi and @21WIRE
One of my fathers closest friends has was double vaccinated in March along with his wife. A few weeks ago they both caught covid, my fathers friend is now coughing up blood and his wife has been hospitalised. #vaccines have failed.
12:32 PM · Aug 17, 2021·Twitter for iPhone
1 Retweet
1 Quote Tweet
oh yeah, I am already seeing it with FB "friends"- plus they add "if only everyone would wear their masks" kind of thing. Entertaining. QUESTION: How accurate is VAERs? I would like to use them as a source, but Reuters shot them down, saying "anyone" could post a side effect/reaction/death etc. which I know isn't true, but still. Thanks!
how likely is it that we're seeing the effects of ADE?
My program is:
- get vaxed and boosted. (I'm high risk.)
- do a rapid test before flying (to protect others) and and wear an N95 in the airport and on the plane.
- wear a medical mask when required (but not otherwise).
- live outside as much as possible.
- keep my bubble small.
- accept the fact that I'm going to get it, but delay as long as possible to allow treatments to mature.
Sure hope this is correct. I look forward to watching the sweater unravel - and the sooner the better !
Excellent analysis as ever El Gato.
I have not needed to travel internationally from the UK since the start of this shit show, but I now need to go to the Netherlands from the UK. They are hysterically demanding nor only both shots but still 10 days quarantine as well. Probably brexit influenced perversity - as they do not require either from a lot of other EU schengen countries.
Trying to work out a possible way around it (I was coerced into the first AZ shot but desperately do not want the second one) is making my head hurt & looking incredibly difficult 🤬. At least in the US people (I don't think) have these insane inter state travel restrictions.
Much as I detest the phrase "lived experience" (what experience is not?), you get a pass on it, gato, since your writings are so clear.
Hopefully what's going on at Israel awakes more people. Many have taken the jab seeing it as the ticket back to normal. We should know already we cannot do that with politicians as they have been emulating Darth Vader to the letter ("I am altering the deal, pray I don’t alter it any further").
And alas, the issue I see with some of those who got sick despite the jab is the statement "It could have been worse without the jab". How do they know that? Sadly, many won't easily accept they have been duped because that would imply admitting they were fooled by government and public health officials.
As my covidan mom says, 'how can you know if you don't watch the news?' And so they will go down with the ship as well everyone who relies upon the media for their schtick.
Go and look at Nate Silver's thread on Twitter yesterday. He posted a couple of questioning the narrative posts, really riled the left up, then this:
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1432490644329611265
But he's back at it again this AM, nagging him, this 'having lost the plot." It's sorta like a self-parody.
"you cannot stop what people see or what they experience"
I believe this, as long as their mind is not stuck inside the identity of their phone world. When I was in Tanzania for nine months (and it is still very much 2019 inside the country) I would ask why they didn't fall for it (very few have smartphones) and they would reply along these lines: 'we can see if our neighbors have it, the word of mouth, on the street, we know what is real.'
But I question whether the ultra smartphone tethered Covidians know what is real any longer in order to have that experience. All that said, the injection is not like a mask. It is poison to many with side effects. We will have to see what the fall-off rate is for the 3rd shot. If it's only like 10-15% or if it's like 30-40% that say no. If it's the latter then we can expect this to end.
"Who are you going to believe, the New York Times or your own lying eyes?" essentially sums up a conversation I had with my rarely heard from First Estate uncle who has been sheltering in his summer home waiting for NYC to "come back", as he puts it. He's looking forward to his booster shot and pooh-poohs these anecdotes even when I mentioned that the fully vaccinated Rev. Jesse Jackson and his wife both caught COVID and landed in ICU (Mrs. Jackson, though hear the Rev. is doing better).
Unfortunately, this will go down in history as a great failure of the FDA: I've worked on CRO's doing clinical trials, and it looked to me that Pfizer designed their studies the same way we did: oversample subjects under 50, white, male, no comorbidities. Sure, they had to pick from all groups but you can tip the scales by oversampling this way. Now reality from Israel and increasingly domestic evidence point to something suspected but buried: over 60 and/or over 6 months from "fully vaccinated" and protection wanes quickly.
The only good thing I can see is that immunity is highest here in late summer so maybe a good number can get it out of the way now, we do appear to be at or near the top of the curve now.
Just in:
California Democrats Drop Bill to "Mandate" Vaccinations. Good foot soldier that it is, the LA Times tries to cast this as anything but a defeat (extra time is simply needed to "craft the strongest bill possible", etc., more junk, etc., more Libby cracker bullshit, etc.) but it seems like this may be watershed moment. Article does mention that an onslaught of phone calls and protests to legislators may have been a contributing reason for the retreat. Really:)?
https://www.yahoo.com/news/democratic-lawmakers-drop-idea-california-012820726.html
Told u this shit is gonna fall apart, I just got it last week, totally die to the mandate, both my wife & I stayed coof free for the whole time, however we got it last week, my wife had tremendous side effects, all day the day after, absolutely horrible
Hope springs eternal. I would say everyone I know who knows this is happening just glazes over if you talk about it. Total cognitive dissonance. You don't seem to realize how powerful that is.
Folks ARE saying: THe passports will dramatically reduce infections ANd the push people to get the shots
> All [62] recovered uneventfully.
How does that square with the many warnings about "long COVID"?
If you are correct about the vaccines, we should see a major spike in Europe over the winter. They had a much slower initial rollout, so most are still within 3-5 months of vaccination. The UK and Canada should provide some interesting data. They rolled out the vaccines around the same time as us, but spaced the second doses longer apart (more out of necessity). One possible explanation for the waning efficacy is that the second doses were dispensed too soon after the first.
I wish I could be as optimistic. What's needed is for a new media storm to take over and people will stop thinking about covid and the passports will just fade away. Unless it's truly something more devious, then we're screwed
Brilliant, as always, I appreciate what you do so much.