why i think faith in vaccine passports will be impossible to sustain: lived experience trumps data. always has.

we’re seeing more and more data like this where vaccinated staff at hospitals or individuals are carrying massive viral loads of covid before showing any symptoms and infecting one another (and likely patients as well)

studies are all well and good, but everyone has been so inundated with them and there is so much data, obfuscation, and manipulation that most people just do not care. people cling to their priors and don’t really change their minds. they find data to suit.

those who could be convinced by data long since picked a side. but what about the rest of humanity?

what’s going to shape their views?

it’s going to be what they see and what they live. and i think it’s going to increasingly look like this:

(this happened just this morning and yes, the i here is really me)

i was just having a conversation with a friend in san juan.

he lives with his GF who is an MD and who has treated covid patients in a hospital right back to PR’s “patient zero” off the cruise ship.

they are both vaccinated.

they both caught covid last week.

6 out of 10 of the people they had dinner with caught it.

all were vaccinated and dinner was at a restaurant that required proof of vaccination to enter.

(PR has mandated vaccine passports/proof for restaurants that want to run at anything over 50% capacity. it also mandates indoor masks.)

this was not a PCR+ trace infection. his direct description was:

“Yea we’re vaxed, we’re better today, last week sucked. Couldn’t stop coughing and just no energy.”

so, not a super severe case, but not a mild one either. sounds like a crappy flu.

the response to this is going to be simple:

these stories seem to be everywhere. my biz partner and his wife got vaccinated to travel to europe this summer (april vaxx date). they got covid in august. so did her mom who was also vaccinated. so did their kids.

everyone knows stories like this now of the vaccinated getting sick and spreading covid. and this is going to affect outlooks and change minds.

how do you sustain belief in vaccines to stop spread when you see them not stopping spread? people are getting real cases of covid post vaccination and are spreading it as well.

suddenly, you see data like this in a new light because it gels with your direct, personal experience.

it’s not what we were sold. we were sold “get your life back” and “100% efficacy.” we were told this would keep us from getting sick and spreading disease.

now, at best, it’s a mitigation of severity and those claims too are increasingly under challenge because it looks like the vaccines fade in efficacy rapidly.

suddenly, it’s “boosters” and watching your friends get sick despite having complied.

this will gut the credibility of health authorities because it’s clear they were wrong.

you can control the media and the politicians, but you cannot stop what people see or what they experience and when those experiences contradict what you are telling them, they’ll realize you’ve been telling porky pies.

so just what is the argument for vaccine passports when 6 in 10 vaccinated people in a vaxxed only restaurant all get covid? “it could have been worse?” this is not a compelling narrative.

where is the protection? where is the basic logic?

this story is about to unravel like an old sweater because the lived experience cannot be suppressed.

some will fight it and demand more shots and more faith, but their numbers will dwindle and they will now be fighting the already vaxxed who complied to get by and now feel hard done by and lied to.

gonna be one helluva thing to watch…