worrying news on swedish birth rates

it's starting to look like more than a baby boom and bust

starting a few months back, i began tracking swedish birth rate data. it seemed a good test case to assess a couple of competing hypotheses and at the time and the data was enough to draw notice and obviously constituted a major departure from any sort of historical rate of change. the birth rate in 2022 was collapsing by double digits vs year ago.

the data seems very clear and i do not think anyone is arguing that it’s not a huge outlier. the only real question is why.

hypothesis 1 is that 2021 was a bit of a baby boom and also the re-opening of europe and so everyone had just had kids and/or went traveling for the summer and few were seeking to get pregnant. this was just demographics around lockdown and travel restriction and you got a sort of “blackout baby” boom followed by a bit of a bust.

hypothesis two is that this is a meaningful reduction in fertility driven by mRNA covid vaccines. this is obviously a big claim to make and one that one should not run off half cocked on. that said, the timing alignment on this is quite precise: 9 months post vaxx surge, births dropped sharply.

this circumstantial signal is backed up by hard biological studies showing both that these vaccines wind up in ovaries and that they appear to seriously suppress sperm counts. the shape of the math on the sperm issue seems to show that some of this issue is transitory and some possibly long term/permanent. the divergence of means and medians points strongly at this.

this would stand to reason as a plausible outcome as you could have a dual path for cause: there is short term damage to sperm from toxicity. this is transitory as more sperm is made. but mRNA vaccines are also notorious for triggering autoimmune issues and if you do this with the testes, well, you may not get function back. your immune system now attacks them as hostile. (but please keep in mind, this is a speculative guess and i have not seen hard data to support it yet. it just seems to fit a fact pattern.)

back in july (when we had data only through may), i laid out this set of predictions:

last month, when we got june, the data was still somewhat ambiguous.

now we have the data from july and while it’s just one data point and i’d really like to see 1-2 more as confirmation, this was was pretty worrying:

percentage change vs year ago stopped improving and fell to a new low of -11.3%. if this keeps up/worsens for another month or two, then we’re getting into something that almost has to be biological and not social. there is just nothing demographic outside of “all the men left for war” that drives change this sudden and continued deterioration would be ominous.

because it’s always good to start with raw data and work forward, this is the live births per month

it’s a strongly seasonal signal and so is easier to see if we stack years:

the departure remains stark.

as can also be seen, this july is actually a seasonal departure. in each of the past 3 years, july has been higher than june. but in 2022, it was lower.

we can extrapolate the whole of 2022 with good confidence because the seasonality is so remarkably consistent. in 2019, 20, 21 the % of births in the first 7 months of the year were 60.4%, 60.6%, and 60.3% respectively. i averaged them and used it to predict 2022 and got this:

the enormousness of this departure becomes clear when looked at in % terms:

for the past decade, a range of +1% to -2% has been common with a ~1% downtrend overall. but even a big up year like 2010 that rose 2.6% only led to a 4% drop afterward. (i have no idea why 2010 was a big year for swedish babies. if anyone does, would love to hear the answer)

this drop of 8% is on the order of 4 std deviations and looks unprecedented in swedish data to 1998.

bottom line:

• there is something very large going on here.

• it began 9 months after covid vaccination.

• and this last month was the worst year on year reading yet implying that it is not, at least now, getting better but possibly worse (or possibly stabilizing at a deeply worrying level)

that said it’s one data point (albeit in a larger and worrying pattern) and so i think we want to be a bit careful on calling “trend change” from the past 2 months of seeming amelioration, but it was quite a worrying data point as well.

if it is confirmed by august and september readings in this range of worse year over year, the idea that it was a result of summer walkabout starts to look awfully threadbare. as is, the children born in july 2022 were conceived in october 2021 well past summer vacation. the balance of evidence is starting to accrue to vaxx injury. (or possibly some other as yet unidentified cause, but i have no real theory there)

i want to urge some real caution on claims here as we’re dealing in a bit of a mosaic, but this pattern and timing has been seen in many other countries as well and that starts to raise real questions.

the fact that this issue was not only not studied pre-release but actively denied and called conspiracy by those that approved, advocated, and mandated vaccines is frankly horrifying.

if this does turn out to have sterilized or significantly reduced fertility for a large number of people, it’s going to be the greatest medical scandal in human history. there will be nothing else that could even come close.

but we have not proven this and so let’s be very careful.

contrary to much practice of late, big claims require big evidence and high certainty.

that said, the fact that this is not currently front and center at CDC and 20 other national health agencies who have the data here and could do the truly dispositive work like “measuring relative fertility rates between the vaxxed and unvaxxed” (data that exists nowhere in the public sphere that i have seen) is way past dereliction of duty and into willful data suppression.

it’s outlandish to be having this debate now after billions took these drugs and disturbing to see how incurious the alleged organs of public health seem to be about any risks or side effects from this program.

at a certain point, that stunning lack of interest itself starts to become evidentiary.

i can haz data?

if this theory is wrong (and wow do i hope that it is) then let’s prove it. open the fricking data. let us have it and analyze it. (because we’re certainly not going to trust the CDC to do it after the way they have played so many things here) why is no country with more honest officials like sweden or denmark or even the UK doing this?

we could clear this up with utmost ease if we had the data.

failure to provide it starts to look willful as though those who have it know the answer and do not want to share it.

such a claim is obviously circumstantial and speculative, but we’re looking at an issue of impossibly large import and if the data can help us solve it, why will no one release it?

what other answer is there?

i struggle to imagine that no one at these agencies has looked at this.

at what point does silence turn to indictment?