addendum/correction to danish VE data

there was a calc error, but it actually served to overstate VE.

the internet is wonderful peer review. it turns out i made a simple data error in my earlier denmark piece HERE.

i overcounted the vaccinated by forgetting to subtract the “boosted” from the “double vaxxed” in the OWID data. this shrinks the size of the fully vaxxed cohort dramatically. it’s not ~75%. it’s 52.5%. my bad. mea culpa.

all this stuff is a work in progress, and peer review and fault finding is part of that process. it’s actually why it’s so valuable to put these analyses out in the public sphere. if one seeks truth, then being shown an error is helpful (if occasionally embarrassing. shudda spotted that one.)

interestingly, and contrary to what some seem to assume, this makes VE worse, not better. the same number of cases are distributed across a smaller number of people.

so we get new data that looks like this:

and vaxx rates like this:

which then lands us here:

and then here:

this does not seem to change any of the conclusions apart from perhaps making them more emphatic as VS dropped by over 100% points on double dose as we see 78% of cases in just 53% of population (vs 8% in 19% for unvaxxed). boosters remain unchanged.

i will post a correction to the other data as well but wanted to be sure you all saw it.

science is about honesty, even and especially when you get something wrong.