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the french are correct to stop using moderna on anyone under 30.
they should stop using pfizer too. we all should. the evidence these drugs have negative risk reward for the young or healthy has become overwhelming.
given the near total lack of coverage in the US, you might have missed the fact that france recently revoked the recommendation for using moderna on people under 30. but it’s in all the french press.
The American biotech product was suspended on October 15 in France for booster injections, following the alert issued by several Scandinavian countries concerning a possible increased risk of myocarditis and pericarditis in the youngest .
It is precisely for this reason, supported by a French study published on Monday, that the HAS now completely advises against Moderna among those under 30. The risk of myocarditis and pericarditis appears particularly high after the second dose in young men aged 12 to 29, with one case hospitalized for 7600 injections within seven days of the injection.
THIS is the study they based this upon. honestly, reality is considerably worse than it reads and i see ZERO reason they did not pull pfizer for under 30’s as well.
the study design was pretty simple. they used a “case matched” control study. they found cases of myo and pericarditis in vaccinated people and matched them each to 10 controls of similar age, sex, and geography.
this generates a signal and a baseline.
(though one can argue this signal is likely low as it counts on those hospitalized and could see many more less serious manifestations. it also only followed vax to dose 2 +21 days)
how big was this signal? massive.
honestly, my question is “why are they allowing pfizer under 30 and moderna at all?”
because based on this one signal any other vaccine in history would have been pulled off the market.
swine flu vaxx was pulled in 1976 over 94 cases of guillian barre nationwide in the US. this was over 1,800 cases of hospitalization for heart issues in a country with 1/5th the population.
10X risk for something serious as a vaccine AE is BAD. 80X is unheard of.
based on my read of this, these risks are cumulative as you have to run through the whole progression to be “fully vaccinated” and the way it was comped did not normalize for “relative exposure days” but the full document is in french (and mine is a bit rusty) so it’s possible i have not read that correctly. if someone has a better grasp on le francais, please pass it on.
BUT assuming i have this correct, the numbers i added in red are the full relative risk adjusted for age, sex, etc.
it’s better for women, but not good, especially moderna.
this signal is clear in pericarditis as well:
moderna is clearly an enormous risk multiplier in age groups (such as under 30) where risk of hospitalization from covid is very low.
based on this UK DATA on risk we can do some simple math.
vaccination prevents 4.2 covid hospitalizations per 100k in under 18’s and 4.9 per 100K in 18-29.
the french data is 12-29, so there is no direct comp.
let’s call this data 4.9 overall and ignore the younger cohort to steel man the case.
but this data is rigged. it counts ONLY those with two doses 14 days after having gotten dose 2. adding in the other categories moves it materially.
in under 18 it increases the number from 1 to 22. this one is such a simpson’s paradox that i hesitate to use it as a meaningful ratio.
in 18-29 it increases the count from 71 to 104, a 46% increase. this seems a more reasonable figure to use for adjustment for the full vaccine bayesian experience (though note that it still has a “donut hole” of the 14 days post dose 2, interestingly the time then the worst heart issues occur)
so, let’s take hospitalization prevalence in the vaxxed up from 1.3 per 100k to 1.9 to capture this.
this drops 4.9 reduction per 100k to 4.3.
now we can do some comparisons: i will use only the summation of the per million data provided above which will truncate actual amounts and further steel man this case.
we can now net out the trade off on avoiding a hospitalization from covid vs winding up in the hospital with heart issues for the 12-29 age group.
as can be readily seen, this ONE ISSUE ALONE creates negative risk reward for moderna in both men and women around hospitalization.
it basically does so for men taking pfizer as well and given how strongly we steel manned this case, it probably does do so in actuality.
in people under 30, perhaps only women taking pfizer are not immediately pushed into negative risk reward by heart issues alone.
this is a HIDEOUS outcome for a vaccine and if you take into account that being healthy (0-1 comorbidities) reduces risk on hospitalization and death from covid by ~90% (and probably ups heart risk from vaccines as this looks to hit athletes hardest) then it becomes clear that:
NO healthy person under 50 should take either of these vaccine based on heart risks alone.
that by itself is a staggering statement.
but heart risks are a TINY part of the risk profile. (note that this is US only)
there have been 3,742 cases of myo and pericarditis in the US. there have even more than 10X that many hospitalizations and roughly 2.2X that many DEATHS, and this is VAERS, so it’s probably undercounting somewhere on the order of 90%.
even 8,284 is 4 deaths per 100k people vaccinated. 10X that is 40. somewhere in that range likely lies the truth, but where is immaterial to under 30’s.
based on UK data being fully vaxxed drops death risk by 0.2 per 100k.
the vaccines look far more deadly. (though this is not an age adjusted comp, so it’s hard to precisely normalize, but overall, bad vaccine AE’s look more prevalent in the young than the old.)
in fact, to get to a better than 4 per 100k VE on deaths based on UK data above, you need to get into the over 50’s. even in 70-79’s, it’s only 36 per 100k. that could STILL be swamped by that figure at the high end and, of course, risk of death from covid drops 90% for the healthy (98-99% if over 75) so these vaccines looks like a poor bet for them even among the aged.
i really don’t know how else to say this, so i’m just going to say it:
this is an atrocity.
these signals are so blatant, especially among the young that having them crop up post approval is a staggering indictment of the process by which they were authorized.
there is just no way this should have happened.
these vaccines are not only non sterilizing, but they are incredibly dangerous in comparison to not only any other vaccine ever rolled out but, for the young and healthy, even compared to the disease they are supposed to help.
the “cure” is flat out worse than the disease.
these vaccines have clear negative cost/benefit for young people, especially kids, and for basically any healthy adult who lacks major comorbidities.
they never showed ANY all cause death benefit, even in their trials.
it’s shameful these were ever cleared for use and it ought to be criminal to mandate them.
this whole tawdry tale of regulatory capture, crony capitalism, medical malpractice, and health agencies as propaganda services is now unravelling too fast to hide anymore.
efficacy is dropping and covid is coming into season in the northern latitudes. by the end of december, this story is going to be in flaming tatters and if vaccines spread widely into school kids, the results are going to be too horrific to sweep under the rug.
covid responses from lockdowns to masking to closing schools and pushing poorly conceived vaccines of notoriously problematic method of action is going to go down in history as the greatest public health policy disaster in the history of the human race. it has already won the crown.
if you want this to stop getting worse, then gather your friends and make this stop.
it’s long past time.