the US summer covid season has attenuated

current data shows strong evidence of community immunity development

cliff notes:

  • “cases” are a meaningless metric because high Ct PCR is unfit for task. 70%+ of reported cases appear to be non-clinical

  • deaths are down 71% from same time last year and are dropping vs rising then

  • hospitalization is 50% lower

  • the US is at or within a week or so of seasonal peak.

  • community resistance is widespread and effective

  • excess deaths have reverted to normal levels

  • go live your life. new restrictions are pointless political theater


it seems one cannot turn on the news without being assaulted with new covid fears and threats. it’s as though we’ve completely forgotten about summer seasonality and the surge in southern states it brings.

but this is pattern is the same as last year and part of the longstanding hope simpson seasonal ebb and flow. using it to score cheap political points because you happen to hate florida is manipulative mendacity. using it to push new mandates and restrictions is, in the face of the data, ridiculous.

the data is good, not bad. delta is far less dangerous than prior variants despite spreading a bit better. “cases” is a meaningless number when one is using oversensitive PCR testing with no symptomatic confirm as a “positive.” vaccines are working. natural immunity has built up as well and works better than vaccinated immunity. together with a less dangerous variant, we’re seeing sharp drops in the metrics anyone should care about.

we are a week or so away from seasonal peak. this is not the time to panic and do foolish things (as happened last year). none of them work anyway.

  • deaths are way down from last year

  • hospitalizations are way down from last year

  • this is the sign of a pandemic ending

the seasonal pattern here has been clear since last year. you get a summer surge in southern states. it’s far lower in magnitude than the winter surge.

we can see it here in 2020. note that deaths peaked on 7/31.

and again in 2021

but look at the massive difference in death counts (and this year’s failure to rise meaningfully) it’s easier to see if you stack them, so i did.

this makes it very clear how much the pandemic has attenuated and how, 1 week from last year’s seasonal peak date, deaths are not rising and may already be dropping again.

the size of this decline yoy should not be underestimated. it’s BIG and it’s rising. this is the chart of the % drop year on year across dates.

as of 7/21/21 deaths are 71% lower than last year and are trending down, not up.

one would think this would be cause for celebration, but instead, it’s being misrepresented as a pretext for clampdowns and politics, just like last summer.

the same tired scare stories from the same media hungry chicken littles are being trotted out and the same fabulism of patients making eloquent confessions on their ventilated death beds of wishing they had listened to doctors is once more making the seasonal rounds.

doctors are overwhelmed. hospitals are stuffed.

but, just like last year but more so, it’s just not true. here’s the stacked hospital patient count data. unfortunately, the series only started on july 15th of last year, so there’s not much to see yet, but it will fill in.

at the moment, count is 50% lower than last year. last year’s peak was 8/1.

overall excess mortality looks typical and is dropping vs being 26% elevated last year.

it’s over guys. these numbers are normal.

cases are, on a testing adjusted basis, at levels similar to last year, but, just like last year, are a near meaningless metric.

PCR this sensitive is going to pick up huge swathes of non-clinical virus. it’s probably reporting triple the number of actual clinical cases. this recent study found that only 31% of positive samples contained live, infective virus. 81% of kids under 10 that tested positive had no live virus. test a lot of kids, find a lot of positives that have no infectivity.

“cases” is simply not a meaningful metric when looking at an endemic virus and using high Ct PCR to test the asymptomatic.

this has always been and remains lunacy and medical malpractice.

we see same trend in the UK. raging “casedemic” with few deaths and hospitalizations.

“cases” look just like last wave. deaths have dropped precipitously. (94% by day 50)

as discussed the other day, israel looks the same.

vaccines were never as effective as claimed, but they are also not “failing.”

natural immunity is effective, widespread, and rising.

the metrics that matter are way down.

and masks, lockdowns, and travel bans never worked anyway and everyone knew that for 70 years prior to 2020.

so this is the time to recognize good news when you see it, not the time to get pushed into more panic.

seasonally, we’re a week or two from peak.

it is most decidedly NOT the time for this:

it’s time for this:

go live your lives.

the data supports it.

and after what’s been done to you over the last 18 months, you’ve more than earned it.

i’ll see you there.