I may have missed it, but shouldn't the data be normalized by age group as well? Israel may well have older people than Palestine or vice versa. So we should compare age group vs. age group, rather than population as a whole.
I may have missed it, but shouldn't the data be normalized by age group as well? Israel may well have older people than Palestine or vice versa. So we should compare age group vs. age group, rather than population as a whole.
I think that's JBP's point. If the curves are indistinguishable that means Israel is actually doing better because they have an older population. Israel about 12.5% over 65, Palestine only 2.9% over 65, which is remarkable. You're also right El Gato to point out that they've been pretty consistently tracking each other before and after vaccination. The coming of the vaccine did not result in Israel peeling away - far from it.
By the way, "ethnically/genetically similar" - I'd love to see you drop that one in over dinner in Tel Aviv and/or Ramallah. I'm not saying you're wrong but it could be a tad controversial over there.
You could take a look at Greece and Bulgaria.
Also the 3 Baltic States. Their total vaccination rates are not so low but they have the odd quirk of not vaccinating the majority of the elderly first.
"Currently, only a little more than half (54%) of all seniors in Latvia have been vaccinated against Covid-19. The situation is similar throughout Latvia with even the high takeup centers in Vidzeme only slightly better than the rest of the country."
It might be memories of the old Soviet propaganda making them suspicious but it seems the elderly are quite resistant to the vaccine there.
Yes, that's pretty much what I said. They tracked each other before and after the vaccination. It did not result in Israel pulling away from Palestine.
65+ population
Israel 12.4%
Palestine 2.9%
All other things being equal Israel should have had it worse but they didn't. However, as we've both said that was the case quite consistently before and after Israel's massive vaccine rollout.
One other thing in that region. You'll hear people getting excited about Israeli boosters and how they've pushed down the curve of cases. Take a look at Cyrpus. Massive spike in cases (and a rise in deaths), peaked and crashed with little or no boosters 8 weeks before Israel.
Not all Jews in Israel are Sephardi. Not sure that comparing Ashkenazi Jews who've spent the last 2,000 years exiled in Europe (later the USA) with middle eastern Arabs shows similar genetics. For instance, even among Israeli Jews there is genetic testing for illnesses done for certain ethnic groups and not others.
That is by design. If it REALLY ISNT about our health, but something else, why would the CDC need to spend time doing real analysis? If it is not about public health, but something else entirely, NOT DOING REAL ANALYSIS, makes perfect sense, because real analysis destroys the narrative created to support the тАЬsomething else.тАЭ If the truth, derived from real non-manipulated data (like the definition of тАЬfully jabbedтАЭ) destroys your narrative, it deserves to be destroyed.
I'm not disagreeing with what you're saying in theory or really for any other discussion about any other disease with such significant age group risks, but at this point isn't the answer really no?
If there were any statistically significant benefit to the vaccine, shouldn't it have been obvious even without the age group breakdowns?
Those curves are so perfectly matched that it seems like even some level of age group differences falls into the "not actually meaningful" category.
Again, I'm not disagreeing with the point you raise overall.
I may have missed it, but shouldn't the data be normalized by age group as well? Israel may well have older people than Palestine or vice versa. So we should compare age group vs. age group, rather than population as a whole.
seems like if that were an issue, we'd have seen it in the past. but we do not. their curves have been all but indistinguishable.
I think that's JBP's point. If the curves are indistinguishable that means Israel is actually doing better because they have an older population. Israel about 12.5% over 65, Palestine only 2.9% over 65, which is remarkable. You're also right El Gato to point out that they've been pretty consistently tracking each other before and after vaccination. The coming of the vaccine did not result in Israel peeling away - far from it.
By the way, "ethnically/genetically similar" - I'd love to see you drop that one in over dinner in Tel Aviv and/or Ramallah. I'm not saying you're wrong but it could be a tad controversial over there.
You could take a look at Greece and Bulgaria.
Also the 3 Baltic States. Their total vaccination rates are not so low but they have the odd quirk of not vaccinating the majority of the elderly first.
"Currently, only a little more than half (54%) of all seniors in Latvia have been vaccinated against Covid-19. The situation is similar throughout Latvia with even the high takeup centers in Vidzeme only slightly better than the rest of the country."
It might be memories of the old Soviet propaganda making them suspicious but it seems the elderly are quite resistant to the vaccine there.
https://eng.lsm.lv/article/society/society/clear-differences-in-regional-vaccination-take-up-across-latvia.a427638/
"I think that's JBP's point. If the curves are indistinguishable that means Israel is actually doing better because they have an older population"
i think you're missing the point i was making:
if age was so impactful, why was it not a factor before vaccination?
they were literally identical once you time shift.
and israel is a VERY young country too.
whatever the variance, they performed indistinguishably before vaccines and then indistinguishably after.
so where is the case that vaccines bent the curve at all?
and why did israel see the same all cause mortality as least seasonal spike?
Yes, that's pretty much what I said. They tracked each other before and after the vaccination. It did not result in Israel pulling away from Palestine.
65+ population
Israel 12.4%
Palestine 2.9%
All other things being equal Israel should have had it worse but they didn't. However, as we've both said that was the case quite consistently before and after Israel's massive vaccine rollout.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/526596/age-structure-in-israel/
https://worldpopulationreview.com/countries/palestine-population
One other thing in that region. You'll hear people getting excited about Israeli boosters and how they've pushed down the curve of cases. Take a look at Cyrpus. Massive spike in cases (and a rise in deaths), peaked and crashed with little or no boosters 8 weeks before Israel.
Not all Jews in Israel are Sephardi. Not sure that comparing Ashkenazi Jews who've spent the last 2,000 years exiled in Europe (later the USA) with middle eastern Arabs shows similar genetics. For instance, even among Israeli Jews there is genetic testing for illnesses done for certain ethnic groups and not others.
I agree with the above, the curves are traveling together, but would be great to have the age breakdown for completeness.
In the last 15 minutes on this one thread, I think we have spent more time analyzing this issue than the CDC has cumulatively.
if age were a material factor, why was it not a factor in 2020?
the two were exact mirrors.
That is by design. If it REALLY ISNT about our health, but something else, why would the CDC need to spend time doing real analysis? If it is not about public health, but something else entirely, NOT DOING REAL ANALYSIS, makes perfect sense, because real analysis destroys the narrative created to support the тАЬsomething else.тАЭ If the truth, derived from real non-manipulated data (like the definition of тАЬfully jabbedтАЭ) destroys your narrative, it deserves to be destroyed.
I'm not disagreeing with what you're saying in theory or really for any other discussion about any other disease with such significant age group risks, but at this point isn't the answer really no?
If there were any statistically significant benefit to the vaccine, shouldn't it have been obvious even without the age group breakdowns?
Those curves are so perfectly matched that it seems like even some level of age group differences falls into the "not actually meaningful" category.
Again, I'm not disagreeing with the point you raise overall.
it is a good point. the nighbors ARe younger esp Palestine.
if this was a major driver, why were the curves identical pre vaxx?
israel also has much better healthcare...
likely you are right BUT you know that would be a fair critique