why there isn't going to be a covid vaccine

vaccines aren't magic and why boosters are a sucker bet

let’s start with a simple claim that a lot of people seem not to understand:

vaccines are not magic.

they cannot do or elicit that which your body cannot do.

they do not kill or stop or even affect viruses.

all vaccines do is train your immune system to recognize a pathogen and learn a response to prevent it from infecting you.

you store the information on how to make antibodies and how to trigger T-cells etc.

but ALL the vaccines that really do stop you from contracting and spreading diseases have one thing in common:

they work on a “one and done” virus that does not mutate.

measles, smallpox, chicken pox, mumps, rubella, these are all diseases where you get them once and (barring extreme immune suppression or rare malfunction) you never get them again.

this is the realm of plausible vaccine candidates.

a vaccine cannot teach you to do something that you could not otherwise do. it’s just intended to be a safer way to do this that can teach you to resist infection without running the risk of getting infected. we can argue about how good at this which ones are, but it does not change a bigger point:

if your body could not, all by itself, get a disease, recover from it, then never get it again due to acquired immunity, the idea that a vaccine using any currently known modality can allow you to do so is deeply implausible, probably impossible.

there has never been a successful vaccine for a recurrent respiratory disease. not for flu, coronaviruses, RSV, none of it. these viruses mutate too quickly. there is always a new one, a new strain, and it will infect you whether or not you got sick last year.

sometimes, getting sick last year (or some other year) actually makes you MORE likely to get sick. this is OAS/hoskins effect/immune imprinting. you body misidentifies a pathogen and produces the antibodies for a past one in response to it and in some cases, this leads to the new one actually being vaccine advantaged. you’re flooding the zone with a response that doesn’t work and it prevents you from finding one that does.

it has long been studied in flu.

where this gets really worrying is if you fixate an entire population into one response vector and this then creates an intense evolutionary pressure toward an “escape” variant. every person is the same lab running the same experiment and when someone cracks it, it affects everyone. you can, quite literally, create the opposite of herd immunity. you can create herd antigenic-fixation.

homogenizing herd level antigenic fixation

there is a lot of more than a bit of convincing data that this is where we have landed.

the idea that we can somehow “get ahead of this” with boosters is not just improbable, it’s actually probably impossible and almost certainly deeply counter-productive.

there is simply no way to be fast enough or predictive. this idea that “warp speed” was some miracle of new science and modality and that mRNA is incredibly fast and responsive as a drug modality is utter fiction. the only way the purported vaccines were ready so quickly is because they already had them. there is simply no other explanation and we have entire fields of smoking musketry on this one.

the NIH (and others including DoD and state dept) were funding ecohealth, peter daszak’s organization that was doing gain of function work on bat coronviruses in wuhan along with folks like ralph baric who was working on splicing HIV genes into it.

the timelines never made made any sense and we still have no idea where bioNtech got their massive jumpstart. but we have some quite interesting inklings on NIH/moderna.

based on some quite telling B roll photos, looks like this “vaccine” was already in a freezer in july 2019.

"2019 Novel Coronavirus Vaccine" dated July 23 2019?

this was not a weapons program. it was a vaccine program possibly trying to solve this “get ahead of the virus” problem by doing gain of function. but as we saw, even if you know exactly what the strain is going to be, the vaccines still fail and wind up making it worse.

this idea that you can gin up a new recipe in weeks (or at all) is pure myth. they sure could not for delta. by the time they did omi (and badly using the thinnest possible data analysis in a handful of mice and using biomarkers not outcomes) it was already 20 yards behind the puck. those variants were all but extinct.

but worse, the new ones that were still spreading were almost certainly, by definition, starting to or fully evading old resistance. because that’s that these viruses do. it’s a natural process. evolution is not optional.

and so every boost with out of date virus coding, even if it did work (dubious), would STILL be counterproductive. you need to be ahead, not behind. being behind is just going to lock more people into more kinds of fixation, make the next surge worse, and keep herd antigenic fixation going. no one will ever get out from under this and the side effects just keep piling up.

this is a disastrous idea.

and mRNA vaccines are about the worst possible way to go about this as they do not even teach your body to recognize the virus itself, only the effects in infected cells. it was just never going to be sterilizing. amazingly, even tony fauci, now that he has retired, seems to know this.

but then again, what flipflop fauci seems to know any any given time can really only be (charitably) described as “tactical.”

amazingly, he suddenly sounds like he reads bad cattitude and the great barrington declaration.

many of you have probably seen this paper:

i mean, damn, this would have gotten you kicked off twitter last year.

it’s tony, so it’s still full of utter twaddle though. it claims that flu vaccines have shown efficacy by pointing at the CDC nonsense of non-randomized studies that are so riddled with cohort and reporting biases are to constitute a GIGO salad.

i have yet to see a compelling/sound study showing flu vaxx efficacy. it’s a junk product lacking in clinical justification. (it would be FASCINATING to see if last year’s flu shot fixates you to make this year’s flu more likely for you. oddly, no one seems to look at this…)

astonishingly, turnaround tony suddenly seems to understand all the reasons a covid vaxx was not going to work again.

and this one is just a stunning whopper before an oddly candid pile of truth:

the “saved lives” claim refers to this study from 2021. it’s hilariously wrong. that it would even be cited is an embarrassment.

but read the rest:

suddenly, the feckless faucherino admits that these products have failed?

how singular.

“it is not surprising?” goodness, to hear that from this gang, well that IS pretty surprising!

and now we move on to the new grift:

“Natural infections with mucosal respiratory viruses may not be fully controlled by human immune responses because the human immune system has evolved to tolerate them during very short intervals of mucosal viral replication”

aaaaand, there is it is:

“send munny!”

and on this, i am frankly, speechless. gatopals™ jay and martin, take a bow: teflon tony has gone barrington.

i mean, jeez, tony hawk can’t throw this many 180’s…

but this is all just a bunch of speculative nonsense in search of funding.

it has all the same issues laid out above:

just what are you targeting and how do you know? how can you get ahead of it and stop fixating people?

there are no answers here, just “hey, let’s make the same mistakes in a new body location and see if that works better!”

plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose…