did covid vaccines cause a spike in cardiovascular and neurological issues?

a look at the german data adds to the mosaic

it has been difficult overall to track the side effects and adverse events associated with covid vaccines. the very nature of the vaccines themselves make these effects unusually strong and unusually varied. the reporting systems set up to track issues such as this are poorly equipped to handle it. VAERS is difficult to use, dramatically under-reports, and generates signals for assessment in a fashion that cannot spot widespread rises in a broad set of symptoms.

but, much like using all cause mortality to measure full effects and sidestep definitional games, there is something of a truth standard one can use to see if unusual things are going on:

we can look at how many folks are ending up in the emergency room and why.

i am building up on the data of gatopal™ @prof_freedom who posted it HERE. the source data comes from HERE.

we start here with the ER reports.

as can be readily seen, somewhere on or around the first of may, something interesting happened. attendance to ER for both cardiovascular and neurological reasons rose dramatically. the up-move was sudden and sustained. elevated levels continue now.

very little happened in presentation for respiratory reasons and levels now are not far above those from 2019. this seems to make “covid” an unlikely culprit for this spike.

“covid deaths” actually peaked right about that moment (an odd, out of season second peak violating the gompertz pattern that had been underway) and went back into decline.

but ER visits for CARDIO and NEURO reasons were not elevated during the much higher peak in feb. this seems to further rule out covid as cause.

but some interesting things emerge.

deaths were dropping as expected, then, on april 6th, they suddenly spiked in an unexpected fashion.

this is provocative because something else happened right about them as well: the vaccination program kicked into high gear, appearing to go wide to younger folks. these are rolling averages and have varied reporting delays, so differences of a couple days cannot really be seen as too meaningful. this looks to be the same time to within the precision of our measurement.

we then saw a week of spike, another week of elevated levels, and a return to decline. these rises in cases and deaths coinciding with commencement of mass vaccination seem common and widespread around the world. this is consistent with the “worry window” of immune suppression in the ~2 weeks following dose one. detailed discussion HERE.

but this effect has been shown to be sudden, sharp, but transitory. so it also seems a poor explanation for the may spike in ER visits. it’s too early and seems unlikely to drive a durable rise.

however, there is another possible culprit to examine: dose 2. the adverse events from dose 2 have generally been seen to significantly exceed dose one in severity and in variety. this makes sense as the purpose of the second dose is to provoke immune response. the issue with mRNA and adenovirus carrier vaccines is that they can provoke all sorts of auto-immune responses as well. the spikes in things like myo and pericarditis are well documented, especially in the young. AE’s tend to be worse in the young than in the old (likely owing to stronger immune response), so the rise from offering d2 not just to the old, but the young as well seems like the period we’d want to examine.

so we have reason for suspicion about and evidence of the potential for such causality.

we also find strong temporal alignment. dose 2 prevalence started rising more sharply right about when ER presentation for cardio and neuro reasons did.

a pattern starts to emerge.

this is, to be sure, basically circumstantial evidence. it’s all provocative about and consistent with vaccines causing spikes in ER trips but it’s very hard to call any of this proof definitive. we’re playing a bit of a mosaic game here.

but it looks highly plausible and seems like it’s the clear best fit to the facts i can find.

what would be incredibly useful is for health agencies to cohort the vaccinated and unvaccinated and then track both in terms of “all events” like death, hospitalization, ER, covid, etc so we could compare the two (preferably by age group and comorbidity status.)

it’s frankly astonishing that they are not only NOT doing this but seem to be taking steps in most places to make it basically impossible.

call me mr cynical paws, but this makes me wonder what they are hiding.

but data always leaks out somewhere, so we’ll keep pulling at strings and looking for puzzle pieces.

the mosaic tends to come together eventually…