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delta variant as pretext for youth vaccination
this is not public health. it's public harm.
public health agencies run on trust. but how are we supposed to trust a word they say when they are flat out lying to us, over and over, about straightforward matters of fact?
this is the real public health crisis in america.
this is, to be blunt, complete and total garbage. it’s the president of the US trotting out the head of the NIAID who funded the gain of function research that may well have caused this pandemic to push a youth vaccination campaign that even the WHO has advised us not to undertake because the risks in kids outweigh the benefits.
they are doing it by grossly mischaracterizing and outright lying about the delta variant by ignoring the data and the science alike.
viruses almost never mutate to be deadlier. it’s maladaptive. this is basic biological imperative.
covid has not mutated to become deadlier. it has mutated to become less so.
delta variant is approximately 1/28th as deadly as the widespread historical variants.
the CFR of delta is about 0.1%, which is 75% less than typical flu variants.
it has a slightly higher secondary attack rate (11.3% vs 8-10.8% on other variants)
so, it’s slightly more contagious and massively less deadly. this nets out to huge harm reduction.
delta is more like a common cold than anything else.
it is almost certainly safer for a young, healthy person to get delta variant covid than to receive an mRNA vaccine.
so these claims go beyond mendacity and become medical malpractice.
real health policy is always and everywhere about risk/reward. vaccination is no different. the goal is to mitigate risk. the idea that pushing mRNA vaccines to kids meets this standard looks unsupported by the data.
first, we start here. this is the likelihood you wind up in hospital from covid by age. it’s almost certainly overstated by 30-50% as most “cases” were in hospital not for covid and the diagnosis was incidental. the journal “hospital pediatrics” estimates overcounting to be 40% of total.
but let’s give them benefit of doubt and count them all. it won’t affect the outcome.
from 5-17, hospitalization is 0.0106% of the population. basically, 1 per 10,000
from 18-29 it’s 0.0785% of the population. about 8 per 10,000.
these are very low rates and most had serious immunological problems or comorbidities. you can probably lop a zero off this for healthy kids. but, again, let’s be maximum charitable.
now, let’s look at vaccines, because this does NOT look favorable. (all DATA direct from CDC and their own presentation. download it before they memory hole it.)
we see that second dose of vaccine for 12-15 years is 0.2% hospitalization. it’s not a perfect comp to the above data because the age cohorts do not line up exactly, but it’s going to be 15-20X the hospitalization rate no matter how you slice it.
let that sink in. mRNA vaccination was at basically 20X as likely to put a 12-15 year old in hospital than getting actual covid.
and that was the old covid, not the new, much milder delta variant. vs delta, this is probably more like a 200X variance.
see now why i did not care about being charitable?
this is a lay down hand.
for 16-25, again, it’s 0.2% hospitalization from vaccine so we’re on the order of 3X the risk of hospitalization from getting actual covid and ~30X that of delta variant.
this is NOT a case for vaccination. it’s a case to knock this off immediately.
even one dose was 0.1% hospitalization rates and this likely means the 2nd dose figure is too low. how many kids who got hospitalized on D1 never went on to getting D2 out of caution? that would be a useful number to know. this could be additive.
hell, ~25% of these kids were so sick from the vaccine they could not undertake normal daily activities vs a disease that was what, 70-90% asymptomatic or barely symptomatic in adults?
this is not treatment, it’s assault.
and some of these reactions are SEVERE, especially, for some reason, among boys. myocarditis can kill you or do permanent heart damage.
and yet the CDC is still dithering, pretending maybe there is not a signal here, using 21 day periods to nerf the relative rate by 1/3 despite it being clinically irrelevant as it’s all happening in week 1, and running a masterclass in obfuscation with the VSD system by stratifying the 12-24 year olds in with those up to 39 in one single 12-39 cohort to dilute and mask the signal. it’s as dishonest as it is grotesque.
and they’re STILL getting 10X the risk ratio.
meanwhile, despite much of the world and even the WHO catching on here, the CDC has delayed the meeting to discuss this issue and the president and his lunatic grifter minion are out peddling overt harm as cure.
meanwhile, 41% of the staff at the cleveland clinic, who had access to early vaccination and top shelf medical advice chose not to vaccinate. huh, maybe they knew something.
this is not public health. you cannot even see public health from as far in the weeds as this is. this is cronyistic grift, epic covering of eminently kickable buttocks, and ruthless politicking to avoid having to admit what a debacle this has been.
we can flat out say that the risk to the young and healthy posed by these vaccines looks to exceed the risk from the disease itself, and we can do that based on current data.
and data of risk is only going to mount.
there is a reason vaccine development generally takes 6-10 years, not 6 to 10 months. that reason is safety data.
mRNA vaccines have had nasty side effects in animals and have never been approved for use in humans. they are still not approved, just authorized for use on an emergency basis.
i’m not sure we can flat out say we’ve proven them dangerous yet (though evidence mounts) but they do look considerably more dangerous than other vaccines in widespread use, likely by orders of magnitude.
but we can flat out say that these vaccines have not been proven safe. that takes several years.
at a bare minimum, this warrants sound and reasoned risk reward calculation. risk is always relative. covid vaccines seem to make sense for some in higher risk categories, clearly do not for others in lower risk categories, and look debatable for many in the middle.
this would seem to make pushing vax mandates and hectoring the public over a new and far less dangerous variant to be the antithesis of public health. it’s literally public harm.
the damage this will do to long term public health by destroying any and all faith in its institutions will be staggering.
and it will be your fault joe and tony. not anti-vaxxers, not covid deniers, not some rebellious twitter rabble and cancelled cats. yours.
and now no one trusts you anymore.
and they are right not to.
welcome to the bed you made.