"ask your doctor, but go armed with data and questions."
I guarantee that the regular reader of boriquagato is more knowledgeable about Covid, risk factors, mRNA vaccines and the efficacies of NPIs than your average doctor.
I have on my computer a graphic from last year's colleges. It's a big long list of schools, totaling 70,000 "cases" resulting in 3 hospitalizations and 0 deaths.
How would we even know the vaccine was working on these people?
Were the vaccines ever “effective”? Have you read Irving Kirsch's “The Emperor's New Clothes”, where he argues that the strong side effects for SSRI's create a kind of super placebo effect for experimental subjects in trials. There is every reason to believe that this could have been the case in the trials for these injections. We know they don't stop infection or transmission or prevent deaths overall. But for most the subjective feeling of illness could be powerfully blunted by the belief that one has been “vaccinated” against the virus.
But then … what happens when the “authorities” shatter that belief that vaccine will protect you or that they will offer a way out of pandemia distopia? Or when you discover that you “got covid” anyway? Could this lead to a Nocebo effect, worsening illness? The winter will answer this.
Sadly for the college kids, this is a now permanent state of affairs, as covidian cult membership is very high on campuses. As a college educator, I would recommend that you work with your kids to create strategies to protect oneself from toxic campuses. Staying off campus as much as one can is a good idea. Another is gap years doing service work and internships after high school to get some real world experience and then finish college a few years later (like many Europeans do). Do Not expect colleges to suddenly wake up on a Tuesday and decide it was all a bad dream, back to normal, nothing to worry about, That is NOT how they are set up, once a panic is established on campus, it self-perpetuates for years and decades.
Your analysis of the evidence is irrefutable. But I am still rooting for the “vaccines work” version to be the story that circulates. My daughter just started college this year, and I can tell you we are all on the edge of our seats hoping that they don’t have to shut down. I think that the Duke data gives the non-neurotic colleges cover so that they can continue resuming normal activities. This is extremely important for the mental health of college students across the country. And as you rightly pointed out, the practical difference between vaccines working and not working is practically nail in this population. So maybe it’s good (?) to have a nice placebo effect going, and that gives a college administrators confidence that they are not killing their students. Honestly, this is how low we have all fallen, that we are rooting for “noble deceits” like this. Because otherwise I’m in despair.
As a Durham native, most Duke people (and northeast tech transplants- sorry guys) are insufferable. The city reenacted a mask mandate at the beginning of August and who knows when that will end. And because of the population, they're actually enforcing it (and some places requiring vax cards) 🙄 Duke is even requiring masks outside now. I want this to end... no concerts or festivals, people are antisocial, and I might never see my 83 year old British grandpa again. And for what!?!
The data from Public Health England puts any claims of prevention to the lie; and, IMO, this data undermines any claim of protection from severe disease. The goal is to not die. I'm beginning to wonder if the jabs are actually making things worse.
The ratio of Delta infections in the unvaxxed to fully vaxxed has dropped from 6.7 as of June 21 to 2.5 as of August 15th.
The "fully vaxxed" are fast catching up to the unvaxxed in infections...
As of August 15...
73,372 Fully Vaxxed Infections
183,133 Unvaxxed Infections
2.5 times more infections in Unvaxxed versus Fully Vaxxed.
The deaths with/from the Delta variant have been underwater for weeks. The fully vaxxed are less likely to seek care or be hospitalized but more likely to die with infection.
SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern and variants under investigation in England/Technical briefing 21/August 20, 2021
Public Health England reports that Delta is the dominant variant in the UK. This variant accounted for 99% of sequenced and 98% genotyped cases from July 25 through July 31, 2021 in England (PHE technical briefing 20/August 8 ).
PHE last reported the Delta variant Case Fatality Rate (CFR) of ~0.2% - 0.3% in early July (PHE technical briefing 18/July 9).
PCR cycle threshold (Ct) values from routinely undertaken tests in England show that Ct values (and by inference viral load) are similar between individuals who are unvaccinated and vaccinated.
Delta in England as of 8/15/2021...
Unvaxxed: 183,133 cases/390 deaths/0.2130%
Unvaxxed <50: 178,240 cases/72 deaths/0.0404%
Unvaxxed 50+: 4,891 cases/318 deaths/6.502%
Fully Vaxxed: 73,372 cases/679 deaths/0.9254%
Fully Vaxxed <50: 40,544 cases/27 deaths/0.0666%
Fully Vaxxed 50+: 32,828 cases/652 deaths/1.986%
40,273 Unlinked Infections
89,957 Partially Vaxxed Infections
73,372 Fully Vaxxed Infections
183,133 Unvaxxed Infections
1.12 times more infections in Unvaxxed versus Partially/Fully Vaxxed.
2.5 times more infections in Unvaxxed versus Fully Vaxxed.
(3.2 times more infections in Unvaxxed versus Fully Vaxxed as of August 8.)
~57.1% of deaths were in fully vaxxed.
~60.6% of deaths were in fully vaxxed 50+.
~65.9% of deaths were in fully/partially vaxxed.
289 more deaths of fully vaxxed than unvaxxed.
334 more deaths of fully vaxxed than unvaxxed in 50+ cohort.
393 more deaths of fully/partially vaxxed than unvaxxed.
427 more deaths of fully/partially vaxxed than unvaxxed in 50+ cohort.
However, this correct analysis of the ambiguousness of the Duke data skips the most important point: The 364 test-confirmed positives from last week haven't even had time to develop severe symptoms yet.
About the graduate versus undergraduate data divergence, this is easily explained by social behavior. The first week of school for undergraduates is an orgy of social interactions, especially at Duke which is fully residential and dominated by fraternity life. Graduate students live off campus, it takes them a while to get their social lives going, they tend to be more hermit-like. I was a graduate student at Duke, I don’t think it’s changed that much since I was there.
Your analysis of the Duke data is spot-on, as always. As an alumnus, the decision to impose mask mandates, outside no less, and the apparent ignorance of the most basic scientific principles, saddens me. Then again, I experienced a "debate" over on the Blue Bird site that illustrated just how deep the rabbit hole goes.
Solid writeup about the Duke data. I think the acid test has to occur in older pops though. In the same vein did you see the Axios story and the horrific CDC writeup it was based on out of Marin County CA?
Buried in the CDC writeup where they (and axios) castigate the evil unvaxxed teacher is this gem,
"Among the five infected adults, one parent and the teacher were unvaccinated; the others were fully vaccinated. The vaccinated adults and one unvaccinated adult were symptomatic with fever, chills, cough, headache, and loss of smell. No other school staff members reported becoming ill. No persons infected in this outbreak were hospitalized."
So 2 unvaxxed adults got infected (with the unvaxxed teacher being the proximal case) & 3 FULLY VAXXED adults got infected. None died and zero difference in reported outcomes. Granted small outbreak here, but the way this data is being handled makes me want to puke.
Getting bearings from this Duke stats seems a bit like setting your sails on a dead calm sea, considering the demographics at play, being the vaccine benefits/risks balance, for the majority in question, more like anchors than oars.
people that teach and get into Duke, like you, aren't dummies
they know correlation isn't causation. At least they used to.
So I'm scratching my head wondering how those non-dummies didn't do this same math, or if they did, did they hide it or spin some other way to review the data?
Some county level dashboards here for cases & deaths vs. vax. Can filter by zones representing heat (1=Very Hot, 7=Very Cold) and moisture (A=Moist, B= Dry, C=Marine). Click on those zones in lower right legend to filter the data. https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/t.coddington
Quote from your article: “304 undergrads test positive out of 6,542. 4.6% in a week.
45 grad students test positive out of 9,009. 0.5%. why this is so much lower is an interesting question to which i’m not sure i have a good answer.”
I have a good answer. You made a mistake in your numbers and there are not 9,009 graduate students, it’s more likely 900. I’ve never heard of a school with 50% more graduate students.
If I’m correct, then 4.6% is very close to 5.0%. What other numbers have you misconstrued?
"ask your doctor, but go armed with data and questions."
I guarantee that the regular reader of boriquagato is more knowledgeable about Covid, risk factors, mRNA vaccines and the efficacies of NPIs than your average doctor.
I have on my computer a graphic from last year's colleges. It's a big long list of schools, totaling 70,000 "cases" resulting in 3 hospitalizations and 0 deaths.
How would we even know the vaccine was working on these people?
Were the vaccines ever “effective”? Have you read Irving Kirsch's “The Emperor's New Clothes”, where he argues that the strong side effects for SSRI's create a kind of super placebo effect for experimental subjects in trials. There is every reason to believe that this could have been the case in the trials for these injections. We know they don't stop infection or transmission or prevent deaths overall. But for most the subjective feeling of illness could be powerfully blunted by the belief that one has been “vaccinated” against the virus.
But then … what happens when the “authorities” shatter that belief that vaccine will protect you or that they will offer a way out of pandemia distopia? Or when you discover that you “got covid” anyway? Could this lead to a Nocebo effect, worsening illness? The winter will answer this.
Sadly for the college kids, this is a now permanent state of affairs, as covidian cult membership is very high on campuses. As a college educator, I would recommend that you work with your kids to create strategies to protect oneself from toxic campuses. Staying off campus as much as one can is a good idea. Another is gap years doing service work and internships after high school to get some real world experience and then finish college a few years later (like many Europeans do). Do Not expect colleges to suddenly wake up on a Tuesday and decide it was all a bad dream, back to normal, nothing to worry about, That is NOT how they are set up, once a panic is established on campus, it self-perpetuates for years and decades.
Your analysis of the evidence is irrefutable. But I am still rooting for the “vaccines work” version to be the story that circulates. My daughter just started college this year, and I can tell you we are all on the edge of our seats hoping that they don’t have to shut down. I think that the Duke data gives the non-neurotic colleges cover so that they can continue resuming normal activities. This is extremely important for the mental health of college students across the country. And as you rightly pointed out, the practical difference between vaccines working and not working is practically nail in this population. So maybe it’s good (?) to have a nice placebo effect going, and that gives a college administrators confidence that they are not killing their students. Honestly, this is how low we have all fallen, that we are rooting for “noble deceits” like this. Because otherwise I’m in despair.
Imagine how much loss could have been prevented if all available options were on the table from day one? No patent with ivermectin though....
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/ohio-judge-orders-hospital-treat-ventilated-covid-19-patient-ivermectin
As a Durham native, most Duke people (and northeast tech transplants- sorry guys) are insufferable. The city reenacted a mask mandate at the beginning of August and who knows when that will end. And because of the population, they're actually enforcing it (and some places requiring vax cards) 🙄 Duke is even requiring masks outside now. I want this to end... no concerts or festivals, people are antisocial, and I might never see my 83 year old British grandpa again. And for what!?!
p'town mass, on cape cod is filled with karens, highly vaxxed group!
in july they had a mass event of breakout vaxxed cases. totally out of hope simpson timing.
past 3 weeks they are back at hope simpson and lowering mask mandates!
cdc came up to do damage control on the vaxx failure!
The data from Public Health England puts any claims of prevention to the lie; and, IMO, this data undermines any claim of protection from severe disease. The goal is to not die. I'm beginning to wonder if the jabs are actually making things worse.
The ratio of Delta infections in the unvaxxed to fully vaxxed has dropped from 6.7 as of June 21 to 2.5 as of August 15th.
The "fully vaxxed" are fast catching up to the unvaxxed in infections...
As of August 15...
73,372 Fully Vaxxed Infections
183,133 Unvaxxed Infections
2.5 times more infections in Unvaxxed versus Fully Vaxxed.
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1012644/Technical_Briefing_21.pdf
As of June 21...
10,834 Fully Vaxxed Infections
71,932 Unvaxxed Infections
6.7 times more infections in Unvaxxed versus Fully Vaxxed.
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1001358/Variants_of_Concern_VOC_Technical_Briefing_18.pdf
***********************************************
The deaths with/from the Delta variant have been underwater for weeks. The fully vaxxed are less likely to seek care or be hospitalized but more likely to die with infection.
SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern and variants under investigation in England/Technical briefing 21/August 20, 2021
Public Health England reports that Delta is the dominant variant in the UK. This variant accounted for 99% of sequenced and 98% genotyped cases from July 25 through July 31, 2021 in England (PHE technical briefing 20/August 8 ).
PHE last reported the Delta variant Case Fatality Rate (CFR) of ~0.2% - 0.3% in early July (PHE technical briefing 18/July 9).
PCR cycle threshold (Ct) values from routinely undertaken tests in England show that Ct values (and by inference viral load) are similar between individuals who are unvaccinated and vaccinated.
Delta in England as of 8/15/2021...
Unvaxxed: 183,133 cases/390 deaths/0.2130%
Unvaxxed <50: 178,240 cases/72 deaths/0.0404%
Unvaxxed 50+: 4,891 cases/318 deaths/6.502%
Fully Vaxxed: 73,372 cases/679 deaths/0.9254%
Fully Vaxxed <50: 40,544 cases/27 deaths/0.0666%
Fully Vaxxed 50+: 32,828 cases/652 deaths/1.986%
40,273 Unlinked Infections
89,957 Partially Vaxxed Infections
73,372 Fully Vaxxed Infections
183,133 Unvaxxed Infections
1.12 times more infections in Unvaxxed versus Partially/Fully Vaxxed.
2.5 times more infections in Unvaxxed versus Fully Vaxxed.
(3.2 times more infections in Unvaxxed versus Fully Vaxxed as of August 8.)
~57.1% of deaths were in fully vaxxed.
~60.6% of deaths were in fully vaxxed 50+.
~65.9% of deaths were in fully/partially vaxxed.
289 more deaths of fully vaxxed than unvaxxed.
334 more deaths of fully vaxxed than unvaxxed in 50+ cohort.
393 more deaths of fully/partially vaxxed than unvaxxed.
427 more deaths of fully/partially vaxxed than unvaxxed in 50+ cohort.
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1012401/Technical_Briefing_21.pdf
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1009243/Technical_Briefing_20.pdf
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1001358/Variants_of_Concern_VOC_Technical_Briefing_18.pdf
Another way of putting it is that if 1,000 young adults take a preventative medical intervention to prevent 1 hospitalization (using https://www.statista.com/statistics/1122354/covid-19-us-hospital-rate-by-age/ ), 999 of them took it for nothing.
However, this correct analysis of the ambiguousness of the Duke data skips the most important point: The 364 test-confirmed positives from last week haven't even had time to develop severe symptoms yet.
About the graduate versus undergraduate data divergence, this is easily explained by social behavior. The first week of school for undergraduates is an orgy of social interactions, especially at Duke which is fully residential and dominated by fraternity life. Graduate students live off campus, it takes them a while to get their social lives going, they tend to be more hermit-like. I was a graduate student at Duke, I don’t think it’s changed that much since I was there.
Your analysis of the Duke data is spot-on, as always. As an alumnus, the decision to impose mask mandates, outside no less, and the apparent ignorance of the most basic scientific principles, saddens me. Then again, I experienced a "debate" over on the Blue Bird site that illustrated just how deep the rabbit hole goes.
Solid writeup about the Duke data. I think the acid test has to occur in older pops though. In the same vein did you see the Axios story and the horrific CDC writeup it was based on out of Marin County CA?
Buried in the CDC writeup where they (and axios) castigate the evil unvaxxed teacher is this gem,
"Among the five infected adults, one parent and the teacher were unvaccinated; the others were fully vaccinated. The vaccinated adults and one unvaccinated adult were symptomatic with fever, chills, cough, headache, and loss of smell. No other school staff members reported becoming ill. No persons infected in this outbreak were hospitalized."
So 2 unvaxxed adults got infected (with the unvaxxed teacher being the proximal case) & 3 FULLY VAXXED adults got infected. None died and zero difference in reported outcomes. Granted small outbreak here, but the way this data is being handled makes me want to puke.
https://www.axios.com/cdc-unvaccinated-teacher-outbreak-205cbb6d-7184-43fd-99b4-2189ddeb7f0e.html?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=editorial&utm_content=health-unvaccinatedteacher
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7035e2.htm?s_cid=mm7035e2_w
Getting bearings from this Duke stats seems a bit like setting your sails on a dead calm sea, considering the demographics at play, being the vaccine benefits/risks balance, for the majority in question, more like anchors than oars.
people that teach and get into Duke, like you, aren't dummies
they know correlation isn't causation. At least they used to.
So I'm scratching my head wondering how those non-dummies didn't do this same math, or if they did, did they hide it or spin some other way to review the data?
Some county level dashboards here for cases & deaths vs. vax. Can filter by zones representing heat (1=Very Hot, 7=Very Cold) and moisture (A=Moist, B= Dry, C=Marine). Click on those zones in lower right legend to filter the data. https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/t.coddington
Quote from your article: “304 undergrads test positive out of 6,542. 4.6% in a week.
45 grad students test positive out of 9,009. 0.5%. why this is so much lower is an interesting question to which i’m not sure i have a good answer.”
I have a good answer. You made a mistake in your numbers and there are not 9,009 graduate students, it’s more likely 900. I’ve never heard of a school with 50% more graduate students.
If I’m correct, then 4.6% is very close to 5.0%. What other numbers have you misconstrued?